Shipping's fourth wave: ship management and Vernon's trade cycles

This paper considers the question whether the present recovery of shipping means a return to pre-crisis conditions with hegemony of OECD shipping or whether shipping has irrevocably changed. Shipping is losing its national character as ship management firms contribute towards the fragmenting of traditional ship-owning firms into separately managed activities, making shipping more footloose as an industry and facilitating relocation in least cost factor markets. Trade cycles may be at work in shipping like those observed in many industrial markets, beyond the scope of any single government's ability to control. The dispersion of shipping and shipping firms away from the historical concentration in a few traditional maritime powers towards low-cost countries must be seen as a manifestation of a secular trend, giving rise to a profound reorganization not only of shipping markets but of shipping itself.     

An Operational Research Approach to Shipping

This paper shows how the Operational Research approach can be used in the shipping industry to obtain effective savings. The approach is by way of a recent study to determine an optimal drydock policy in which the principal criterion was to minimize the total cost of operation. Additional areas, indicating the range of studies carried out in the marine field, are also mentioned.     

SAW焊接型剖面预报的模糊逻辑系统开发(英文)

A fuzzy model was presented to predict the weldment shape profile of submerged arc welds(SAW) including the shape of heat affected zone(HAZ).The SAW bead-on-plates were welded by following a full factorial design matrix.The design matrix consisted of three levels of input welding process parameters.The welds were cross-sectioned and etched,and the zones were measured.A mapping technique was used to measure the various segments of the weld zones.These mapped zones were used to build a fuzzy logic model.The membership functions of the fuzzy model were chosen for the accurate prediction of the weld zone.The fuzzy model was further tested for a set of test case data.The weld zone predicted by the fuzzy logic model was compared with the experimentally obtained shape profiles and close agreement between the two was noted.The mapping technique developed for the weld zones and the fuzzy logic model can be used for on-line control of the SAW process.From the SAW fuzzy logic model an estimation of the fusion and HAZ can also be developed.     

Old laws for new risks at sea: mineral resources, climate change, sea lanes, and cables

Maritime security in a broad sense means more than piracy and terrorism. This paper concentrates on the risk potential of current and future resource-related activities on the seabed. The seabed mining of hard mineral resources??in addition to hydrocarbons??leads to new controversial maritime boundary claims of states in their effort to expand national access rights to raw materials. Outer continental shelf claims in the Arctic Ocean are today's test bench for law of the sea conflicts. Fiber-optic cables running through regional seas, straits, and land bridges may become another risky issue, while the pattern of maritime transport routes is moving from Northern to Southern waters. Under a medium-term perspective, the sea level rise will endanger ports and coasts. Borderlines of maritime zones will move and thus generate more injustice and conflicts among states. The tools to solve borderline conflicts and options for dispute settlement are available in UNCLOS. Some other legal gaps are covered by the 2005 SUA Convention and by bilateral agreements, while resolutions by the UN Security Council begin to broaden rights of intervention and interdiction. The need for new laws remains.     

Hydrodynamics study of a BCF mode bioinspired robotic-fish underwater vehicle using Lighthill’s slender body model

This paper investigates the hydrodynamic characteristics of the rectilinear motion of a robotic fish underwater vehicle. This 2-joint, 3-link multibody vehicle model is biologically inspired by a body caudal fin carangiform fish propulsion mechanism. Navier–Stokes equations are used to compute the unsteady flow fields generated due to the interaction between the vehicle and the surrounding incompressible and Newtonian fluid (water) environment. The NACA 0014 airfoil aerodynamic profile has been designed to boost the swimming efficiency by reducing drag as the vehicle undergoes an undulatory/oscillatory motion. Using the Lighthill slender body model, a traveling wave mathematical function is defined to undulate the robotic fish posterior (caudal) region while the motion tracking is carried out by dynamic meshing technique. The results obtained show that though the net lift force approaches to zero, the net thrust or negative drag coefficient maintains a finite value dependent on kinematic parameters like tail beat frequency (TBF) and amplitude span (AS) at a given propulsive wavelength and the forward velocity of the vehicle. The results reveal the effects of TBF and AS on the coefficient of drag friction and the thrust force. Drag coefficients obtained from the simulations are compared and validated with the experimental results. The hydrodynamic results are found to be similar to the kinematic study results and suggest that TBF and AS play the most effective roles in the bioinspired propulsion technique. Relation of these parameters with propelling thrust force and forward velocity is also in conjunction over a given range of TBF and AS values.     

Application of a SEEK filter to a 1D biogeochemical model of the Ligurian Sea: Twin experiments and real in-situ data assimilation

The Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter has been implemented to assimilate in-situ data in a 1D coupled physical-ecosystem model of the Ligurian Sea. The biogeochemical model describes the partly decoupled nitrogen and carbon cycles of the pelagic food web. The GHER hydrodynamic model (1D version) is used to represent the physical forcings. The data assimilation scheme (SEEK filter) parameterizes the error statistics by means of a set of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Twin experiments are first performed with the aim to choose the suitable experimental protocol (observation and estimation vectors, number of EOFs, frequency of the assimilation,…) and to assess the SEEK filter performances. This protocol is then applied to perform real data assimilation experiments using the DYFAMED data base. By assimilating phytoplankton observations, the method has allowed to improve not only the representation of the phytoplankton community, but also of other variables such as zooplankton and bacteria that evolve with model dynamics and that are not corrected by the data assimilation scheme. The validation of the assimilation method and the improvement of model results are studied by means of suitable error measurements.     

用于预报离岸管线膨胀的简化技术（英文）

In this study, we propose a method for estimating the amount of expansion that occurs in subsea pipelines, which could be applied in the design of robust structures that transport oil and gas from offshore wells. We begin with a literature review and general discussion of existing estimation methods and terminologies with respect to subsea pipelines. Due to the effects of high pressure and high temperature, the production of fluid from offshore wells is typically caused by physical deformation of subsea structures, e.g., expansion and contraction during the transportation process. In severe cases, vertical and lateral buckling occurs,which causes a significant negative impact on structural safety, and which is related to on-bottom stability, free-span, structural collapse, and many other factors. In addition, these factors may affect the production rate with respect to flow assurance, wax, and hydration, to name a few. In this study, we developed a simple and efficient method for generating a reliable pipe expansion design in the early stage, which can lead to savings in both cost and computation time. As such, in this paper, we propose an applicable diagram, which we call the standard dimensionless ratio(SDR) versus virtual anchor length(LA) diagram, that utilizes an efficient procedure for estimating subsea pipeline expansion based on applied reliable scenarios. With this user guideline,offshore pipeline structural designers can reliably determine the amount of subsea pipeline expansion and the obtained results will also be useful for the installation, design, and maintenance of the subsea pipeline.     

Real-time Monitoring of Subsea Gas Pipelines,Offshore Platforms,and Ship Inspection Scores Using an Automatic Identification System

The aim of this research is to develop an algorithm and application that can perform real-time monitoring of the safety operation of offshore platforms and subsea gas pipelines as well as determine the need for ship inspection using data obtained from automatic identification system (AIS). The research also focuses on the integration of shipping database, AIS data, and others to develop a prototype for designing a real-time monitoring system of offshore platforms and pipelines. A simple concept is used in the development of this prototype, which is achieved by using an overlaying map that outlines the coordinates of the offshore platform and subsea gas pipeline with the ship’s coordinates (longitude/latitude) as detected by AIS. Using such information, we can then build an early warning system (EWS) relayed through short message service (SMS), email, or other means when the ship enters the restricted and exclusion zone of platforms and pipelines. The ship inspection system is developed by combining several attributes. Then, decision analysis software is employed to prioritize the vessel’s four attributes, including ship age, ship type, classification, and flag state. Results show that the EWS can increase the safety level of offshore platforms and pipelines, as well as the efficient use of patrol boats in monitoring the safety of the facilities. Meanwhile, ship inspection enables the port to prioritize the ship to be inspected in accordance with the priority ranking inspection score.     

采用自动识别系统对水下输气管线、离岸平台和船舶检验评分的实时监测（英文）

The aim of this research is to develop an algorithm and application that can perform real-time monitoring of the safety operation of offshore platforms and subsea gas pipelines as well as determine the need for ship inspection using data obtained from automatic identification system(AIS). The research also focuses on the integration of shipping database,AIS data, and others to develop a prototype for designing a real-time monitoring system of offshore platforms and pipelines. A simple concept is used in the development of this prototype, which is achieved by using an overlaying map that outlines the coordinates of the offshore platform and subsea gas pipeline with the ship's coordinates(longitude/latitude) as detected by AIS. Using such information, we can then build an early warning system(EWS) relayed through short message service(SMS), email, or other means when the ship enters the restricted and exclusion zone of platforms and pipelines. The ship inspection system is developed by combining several attributes. Then, decision analysis software is employed to prioritize the vessel's four attributes, including ship age, ship type, classification, and flag state.Results show that the EWS can increase the safety level of offshore platforms and pipelines, as well as the efficient use of patrol boats in monitoring the safety of the facilities. Meanwhile, ship inspection enables the port to prioritize the ship to be inspected in accordance with the priority ranking inspection score.     

利用AGM求解粘弹性地基刚性梁的非线性控制微分方程（英文）

In the present paper a vibrational differential equation governing on a rigid beam on viscoelastic foundation has been investigated. The nonlinear differential equation governing on this vibrating system is solved by a simple and innovative approach, which has been called Akbari-Ganji’s method(AGM). AGM is a very suitable computational process and is usable for solving various nonlinear differential equations. Moreover, using AGM which solving a set of algebraic equations, complicated nonlinear equations can easily be solved without any mathematical operations.Also, the damping ratio and energy lost per cycle for three cycles have been investigated. Furthermore, comparisons have been made between the obtained results by numerical method(Runk45) and AGM. Results showed the high accuracy of AGM. The results also showed that by increasing the amount of initial amplitude of vibration(A), the value of damping ratio will be increased, and the energy lost per cycle decreases by increasing the number of cycle. It is concluded that AGM is a reliable and precise approach for solving differential equations. On the other hand, it is better to say that AGM is able to solve linear and nonlinear differential equations directly in most of the situations. This means that the final solution can be obtained without any dimensionless procedure.Therefore, AGM can be considered as a significant progress in nonlinear sciences.