Transportation of dangerous goods by road: the Brazilian case for selection of carriers based on a risk management methodology

Abstract

This article applies a methodology for selecting carriers for the transportation of dangerous goods by road, with a special focus on risk management aspects. The methodology makes use of Stated Preference techniques and verifies the most critical risk-related variables influencing decision-making from the shippers' point of view. It embraces the planning and execution stages, an evaluation of the contracted company and a feedback process. The methodology was effectively applied to the case of liquid fuel shippers in the Brazilian middle-west region where it proved possible to identify which dangerous goods road transport company to contract in accordance with the risk management factors selected by the decision makers.     

Traffic accident risk perception among drivers: a latent variable approach

ABSTRACT

Governments require decision tools to deal with road traffic accidents, a pandemic resulting in millions of deaths around the world. Evidence shows that human factors are one of the major causes of road accidents, and there is much interest in identifying variables that may have an impact on drivers’ perception of risk. To this aim, we design a stated choice experiment with eight hypothetical driving scenarios considering attributes that have been strongly associated with increased accident risks: (i) driving speed, (ii) driving the wrong way in a one-way street, (iii) overtaking on a bend, and (iv) driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. Data from a sample of survey respondents are used to estimate a hybrid discrete choice model incorporating two latent variables, Driver Concentration and Safe Driving. Our results may contribute to the design of public policies geared to prevent accidents by encouraging safer driving behaviour.     

Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models

In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Santiago Panel</Emphasis>: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago

Although panels offer significant advantages over cross sectional data especially in terms of evaluating the effects of significant policy changes, there are precious few examples of panels built around an important change to an urban transport system. For this reason we took the opportunity of the introduction of Transantiago, a radically new public transport system for Santiago de Chile in February 2007, to form a panel, the first wave of which was taken in December 2006. The final objective was to use this Santiago Panel to estimate mode choice models considering both inertia and policy effects. This document describes both the design and construction of the panel, and presents some results based on an analysis of its four waves; for example, we registered a high percentage of mode change (55.1%) attributable to the introduction of the new system. The panel can claim the highest response rate (or lowest attrition) reported in the literature (95% in the second wave, 92% in the third one, and 85% in the forth one). This hints at the possibility of developing sophisticated models to evaluate the effects of a system shock in the presence of inertia in decision making.     

Implications of Thresholds in Discrete Choice Modelling

Abstract

Individual choices are affected by complex factors and the challenge consists of how to incorporate these factors in order to improve the realism of the modelling work. The presence of limits, cut‐offs or thresholds in the perception and appraisal of both attributes and alternatives is part of the complexity inherent to choice‐making behaviour. The paper considers the existence of thresholds in three contexts: inertia (habit or reluctance to change), minimum perceptible changes in attribute values, and as a mechanism for accepting or rejecting alternatives. It discusses the more relevant approaches in modelling these types of thresholds and analyses their implications in model estimation and forecasting using both synthetic and real databanks. It is clear from the analysis that if thresholds exist but are not considered, the estimated models will be biased and may produce significant errors in prediction. Fortunately, there are practical methods to attack this problem and some are demonstrated.     

Inclusion of latent variables in Mixed Logit models: Modelling and forecasting

Travel demand models typically use mainly objective modal attributes as explanatory variables. Nevertheless, it has been well known for many years that attitudes and perceptions also influence users’ behaviour. The use of hybrid discrete choice models constitutes a good alternative to incorporate the effect of subjective factors. We estimated hybrid models in a short-survey panel context for data among many alternatives. The paper analyses the results of applying these models to a real urban case study, and also proposes an approach to forecasting using these models. Our results show that hybrid models are clearly superior to even highly flexible traditional models that ignore the effect of subjective attitudes and perceptions.     

谈施工安全控制

分析了常见施工安全事故的特征及事故发生的原因，并结合多年的施工经验，介绍如何控制和保障施工安全的经验和体会。     

电子商务革命与知识经济浪潮

电子商务作为未来的主流商务模式已经获得了一致的认可,但对于电子商务的具体内涵,以及电子商务将给我们带来什么,多数研究工作主要集中在特定的学术领域内进行,尚没有一个较全面的回答。本文首先从信息交流模式与社会模式之间的关系引出电子商务的一个一般性概念,然后对电子商务及知识经济在宏观、中观和微观三个层次上对社会可能造成的影响进行了全面的分析。     

车用稀燃增压单一燃料CNG发动机电控系统的研究

为深入研究 CNG发动机稀薄燃烧特性 ,进一步降低天然气发动机的有害排放 ,设计了车用增压天然气发动机电控系统。该系统采用高能点火模块来获得天然气着火所需的点火能量 ,电控喷射单元采用模糊控制器来获得比较精确的空燃比控制 ,实现对天然气发动机的顺序多点喷射。运用该系统对增压单一燃料 CNG发动机的燃烧和排放性能进行了试验研究 ,结果表明了该系统的有效性。     

Quantitative analysis of passenger and baggage security screening at airports

The terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001 opened a new era in air transportation. The realization that civil aircraft can be used as powerful weapons of mass destruction by a small group of people has drastically increased the need for security screening procedures to protect civil flights. Serving as the interface between the air and land transportation modes, airports have become the main focus in the implementation of those procedures. The need to more thoroughly screen passengers and baggage, and the consequent increase in processing time, has created the need for more space for security checkpoints and baggage screening inside passenger terminal buildings—space that is costly and very difficult to find in existing buildings. This paper evaluates the impact those measures have had on the planning and operation of airport passenger terminals. Quantification of those impacts is performed with the use of discrete‐event simulation and spreadsheet models.