Experience as a conditioning effect on choice: Does it matter whether it is exogenous or endogenous?

Previous choice studies have proposed a way to condition the utility of each alternative in a choice set on experience with the alternatives accumulated over previous periods, defined either as a mode used or not in a most recent trip, or the mode chosen in their most recent trip and the number of similar one-way trips made during the last week. The paper found that the overall statistical performance of the mixed logit model improved significantly, suggesting that this conditioning idea has merit. Experience was treated as an exogenous influence linked to the scale of the random component, and to that extent it captures some amount of the heterogeneity in unobserved effects, purging them of potential endogeneity. The current paper continues to investigate the matter of endogeneity versus exogeneity. The proposed approach implements the control function method through the experience conditioning feature in a choice model. We develop two choice models, both using stated preference data. The paper extends the received contribution in that we allow for the endogenous variable to have an impact on the attributes through a two stage method, called the Multiple Indicator Solution, originally implemented in a different context and for a single (quality) attribute, in which stage two is the popular control function method. In the first stage, the entire utility expression associated with all observed attributes is conditioned on the prior experience with an alternative. Hence, we are capturing possible correlates associated with each and every attribute and not just one selected attribute. We find evidence of potential endogeneity. The purging exercise however, results in both statistical similarities and differences in time and cost choice elasticities and mean estimates of the value of travel time savings. We are able to identify a very practical method to correct for possible endogeneity under experience conditioning that will encourage researchers and practitioners to use such an approach in more advanced non-linear discrete choice models as a matter of routine.

     

Biological Status Assessment of Coral Reefs in Southern Puerto Rico: Supporting Coral Reef Protection Under the U.S. Clean Water Act

Abstract

States and other jurisdictions may protect coral reefs using biological water quality standards outlined by the United States Clean Water Act (CWA). Such protection will require long-term, regional monitoring of the resource using biological indicators and a probability-based sampling design. A 60-station survey targeting nearshore linear coral reef was conducted across southern Puerto Rico in December 2011 to document the status of reef inhabitants using a probabilistic, regional sampling design. The quantity, type and condition of stony corals, fish, gorgonians, and sponges were documented from each station, providing a robust representation of linear reef status and composition across the region. Fish represented 106 unique taxa and stony corals 32 unique taxa. Benthic organisms (stony corals, sponges, and gorgonians) averaged nearly 12 colonies per square meter, more than half of which were gorgonians. Assessment results can be used as a baseline to compare with future regional surveys to quantify change in reef condition over time (trend). Both temporal and spatial changes can be expected after large-scale disturbances like hurricanes Maria and Irma in 2017. The indicators and probabilistic sampling design support the long-term regional monitoring envisioned by the Environmental Protection Agency to implement CWA protections in Puerto Rico and elsewhere.     

Modelling heavy vehicle car‐following behaviour in congested traffic conditions

This study develops a car‐following model in which heavy vehicle behaviour is predicted separately from passenger car. Heavy vehicles have different characteristics and manoeuvrability compared with passenger cars. These differences could create problems in freeway operations and safety under congested traffic conditions (level of service E and F) particularly when there is high proportion of heavy vehicles. With increasing numbers of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, model estimates of the traffic flow could be degrades because existing car‐following models do not differentiate between these vehicles and passenger cars. This study highlighted some of the differences in car‐following behaviour of heavy vehicle and passenger drivers and developed a model considering heavy vehicles. In this model, the local linear model tree approach was used to incorporate human perceptual imperfections into a car‐following model. Three different real world data sets from a stretch of freeway in USA were used in this study. Two of them were used for the training and testing of the model, and one of them was used for evaluation purpose. The performance of the model was compared with a number of existing car‐following models. The results showed that the model, which considers the heavy vehicle type, could predict car‐following behaviour of drivers better than the existing models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simulation‐based reliability assessment approach for congested transit network

This paper is an attempt to develop a generic simulation‐based approach to assess transit service reliability, taking into account interaction between network performance and passengers' route choice behaviour. Three types of reliability, say, system wide travel time reliability, schedule reliability and direct boarding waiting‐time reliability are defined from perspectives of the community or transit administration, the operator and passengers. A Monte Carlo simulation approach with a stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment model embedded is proposed to quantify these three reliability measures of transit service. A simple transit network with a bus rapid transit (BRT) corridor is analysed as a case study where the impacts of BRT components on transit service reliability are evaluated preliminarily.     

The morgantown PRT: It is still running at West Virginia University

It has been over fifteen years since the Morgantown PRT system went into passenger service. Its start was marked by cost overruns, high operating costs and poor reliability. However over time, these initial problems and difficulties have been overcome, and today the system provides an extremely important and reliable service that links downtown Morgantown with three campuses of West Virginia University. It is still running. This paper provides background on the development of the system and current operating characteristics of this famous transit demonstration project.     

The social psychological consequence of a life at sea: A causal model

This paper explores the influence of this occupation on alienation and social integration of its members. Data were collected using a survey instrument from a sample of 293 seamen, both officers and crew. Factors determining variance in levels of alienation are examined using multiple regression technique. Results indicate that variance in several occupational features of life at sea affect the degree of alienation experienced by seamen, and a number of social characteristics were found to mitigate these influences. Supplementary qualitative data are also used.     

Integrated Coastal Management in Philippine Local Governance: Evolution and Benefits

In 1991 the Philippine government shifted many coastal management responsibilities to local governments and fostered increased local participation in the management of coastal resources. In their delivery of integrated coastal management (ICM) as a basic service, many local governments have achieved increasing public awareness of coastal resource management (CRM) issues. Continuing challenges are financial sustainability, inadequate capacities, weak law enforcement, and lack of integrated and collaborative efforts. To address these challenges, a CRM certification system was developed to improve strategies and promote incentives for local governments to support ICM. This system is being applied by an increasing number of local governments to guide the development and implementation of ICM in their jurisdiction. The CRM benchmarks required for a local government to achieve the first level of certification are: budget allocated, CRM related organizations formed and active, CRM plan developed and adopted, shoreline management initiated and two or more best practices implemented. Implementation is providing tangible benefits to communities through enhanced fisheries production associated with MPAs, revenues from user fees and enhanced community pride through learning exchanges and involvement in decisions, among others.     

The visual effects of port redevelopment alternatives

Abstract

In the early 1970s, Seattle Piers 90/91 were declared surplus federal property by the GSA. These obsolescent half‐mile‐long piers and their adjacent uplands were purchased by the Port of Seattle for redevelopment. This urban waterfront site of almost 200 acres presents the Port of Seattle with a number of severe planning problems. While it is the last large deep‐water site on Elliott Bay, it is also in a very sensitive location, since it is overlooked on two sides by vocal residential communities with a history of active intervention in development projects on visual and other environmental grounds.

At Piers 90/91, public concerns over the visual effects of port redevelopment include:

1. nuisance effects of night‐operations lighting on adjacent hillside residences;

2. nighttime obstruction of distant views due to increased foreground illumination;

3. day and night view obstruction by tall structures such as container‐handling cranes;

4. alteration of the character of both day and nighttime views by new port facilities.

As part of a program to study the effects of alternative redevelopment strategies for Piers 90/91, the Port has undertaken a through examination of the visual effects of different uses, their visual appropriateness, and the ways by which adverse visual effects can be mitigated. The results were incorporated into an environmental impact statement which documented compliance with the Seattle Shoreline Master Program and with view protection and glare provisions of the City's S.E.P.A. guidelines.

A systematic Visual Resource Management (VRM) approach was successfully employed on this coastal zone project. Major elements included visibility mapping, key view selection, analysis of existing visual character, simulation of alternatives, assessment of relative visual compatibility, and determination of effective mitigation measures. Community involvement has also been a critical element in this approach to assessing and managing the visual effects of redevelopment in a major urban port.     

Morphological approach to metropolitan highway systems analysis,planning, and policy design

Morphology is the subject matter of study in physical and biological sciences. A few attempts have been made to apply the biologists’ and paleontologists’ morphological study model known as allometry to social sciences fields and urbanization dynamics. However in social and sociocultural situations all forms are changeable by volition and policy, as opposed to being the result of fixed information which is stored in the genes. In studying metropolitan areas it is advantageous to regard the allometric relations as merely morphological relations indicating norms by which the components of the system change in relation to the change of the whole system. The morphological analysis approach for a metropolitan highway system has been formulated by utilizing relations defined in the Tri‐State metropolitan area (Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York). The study demonstrates that this approach is suitable for highway network planning and comprehensive policy design.     

Innovation and transportation's technologies

I critique the innovation processes that yield transportation's technologies, and to aid my analysis I look back to take advantage of the accumulation of experiences and insights marked by the millennium. I identify supply, transport, and user systems. Transport systems move things; supply systems provide fuel, pavements, and other inputs to transport activities; and user systems combine transport with other activities for socially useful purposes. The discussion then shifts from structure to behavior, and a short review of the emergence of today's systems reminds us that technological advances may improve the provision of old services, offer new ways of doing old things, or induce qualitative changes that enable doing new things. With these structural and behavioral matters in mind, I challenge the reader to judge the present situation and the future.