A mixed Bayesian network for two-dimensional decision modeling of departure time and mode choice

The modeling of travel decision making has been a popular topic in transportation planning. Previous studies focused on random-utility discrete choice models and machine learning methods. This paper proposes a new modeling approach that utilizes a mixed Bayesian network (BN) for travel decision inference. The authors use a predetermined BN structure and calculate priori and posterior probability distributions of the decision alternatives based on the observed explanatory variables. As a “utility-free” decision inference method, the BN model releases the linear structure in the utility function but assumes the traffic level of service variables follow multivariate Gaussian distribution conditional on the choice variable. A real-world case study is conducted by using the regional travel survey data for a two-dimensional decision modeling of both departure time choice and travel mode choice. The results indicate that a two-dimensional mixed BN provides better accuracy than decision tree models and nested logit models. In addition, one can derive continuous elasticity with respect to each continuous explanatory variable for sensitivity analysis. This new approach addresses a research gap in probabilistic travel decision making modeling as well as two-dimensional travel decision modeling.     

On Safety in Dismantling Temporary Strut of Super-large Tunnels with Double-layer Primary Support北大核心CSCD

More and more multiple-track tunnels and super-large section tunnels have been built, and disman- tling of temporary strut is a weak point of the whole structure during force transfer when the secondary lining is con- structed. It is significant to guarantee structure safety during dismantling of temporary strut. Little systematic re- search on safety in dismantling of temporary strut of the super-large section tunnel with double-layer primary support has been conducted, so the internal force and security of the two-layer primary support of the Xinkaotang tunnel were analyzed by a numerical analysis and site measurement, and it proves the effect of two-layer primary support on the safety during strut dismantling. The research results indicate that: (1) with constant support thickness and one-time longitudinal dismantling length, the safety factor of secondary primary support is larger than that of the first primary support, and the safety factor of the first primary support is larger than that of the single-layer primary support. Change range of safety factor for the first primary support is smaller than that of the single-layer primary support, and the safe factor for the single-layer primary support is smaller than that of the secondary primary support; (2) with the same support pattern, the safety factors increase firstly and then decrease with an increase of the onetime dismantling length. The calculated results of various cases show that the reasonable one-time dismantling length for this project is about 9 m. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

锌氧化银电池注液激活系统仿真模拟

利用ANSYS Fluent软件对锌氧化银一次电池注液激活系统进行模拟分析,在三种不同特性的点火器匹配注液激活系统条件下,模拟计算各个阀门能否正常开启、开启时间以及开启的顺序。分析计算得出各个阀门开启的时间,能够很好的指导注液系统设计。     

城市交叉口交通流特征与短时预测模型

时间尺度大于15 min的城市交通流预测模型已无法满足交通信号实时控制和交通信息实时发布的需求,通过对广州市中心区交叉路口交通流长期观察和数据采集,分析了各种时间尺度的交通流特性,提出以路口信号周期作为时间尺度,绿灯流率作为变量的ARIMA(p,d,q)短时交通预测模型。以1个和3个信号周期的时间尺度为例,对城市交叉路口不同时间段交通流进行建模和预测。结果表明ARIMA(p,d,q)预测模型结构稳定,算法简单,时间尺度为3个信号周期的预测模型可以很好地保持交通流特征,均方根误差为0.015 9,预测精度较高。     

自动引导车辆(AGV)地图生成方法研究

提出了在人工导引方式下生成AGV数字地图的方法.利用立体视觉提取障碍物边界点,将不同视点处得到的观测集成到数字地图中,进一步提高数字地图的精度.由于AGV运动的不确定性,在将最新的观测集成到地图中之前,通过匹配新的观测数据与地图数据计算AGV位置.实验表明了该方法的有效性.     

一种基于蚁群算法的服务组合方法

Web服务是一种新型的信息集成架构,将多个Web服务组合成一个能完成复杂任务的组合技术是Web服务中关键技术之一．文中提出了一种基于蚁群算法的服务组合方法,对于服务序列可生成全局最优联盟,同时算法基于蚁群系统的学习能力可以有效减少联盟生成的搜索时间和计算量,可实现性好．     

基于复配硬质沥青的大掺量高性能热再生技术

借鉴法国耐久性高模量沥青混合料的设计理念,充分利用沥青路面回收材料中沥青老化的特性和级配细化的特点,采用硬质颗粒复配低标号沥青,并通过丰度系数指标实现大掺量高性能热再生沥青混合料。室内性能评价与验证表明,热再生沥青混合料实现了大掺量,且性能满足现行施工技术规范要求,同时满足法国耐久性高模量沥青混合料的性能指标,为热再生沥青混合料的设计和应用提供了新的思路,具有较好的经济社会效益。     

考虑动态定价的煤炭调运方案优化研究

煤炭坑口价格的变化与市场供求有重要联系.本文在煤炭坑口价格动态定价的基础上,以煤炭产地和消费地间的煤炭调运量为决策变量,以煤炭流通过程中的总费用最小化为目标,分别构建了煤炭调运系统优化模型和考虑消费者竞争的煤炭调运优化模型,设计了遗传算法和Floyd算法相结合的求解算法.以我国内地煤炭调运问题为案例,分析了价格变化特性、可调出量与消费量比例等因素对煤炭调运方案的影响.结果表明,考虑消费者竞争时煤炭流通广义费用更低;随着煤炭可调出量与消费量比的增加,动态价格较固定价格的煤炭流通广义费用下降更快.     

编队通信网频率规划的建模与仿真

分析编队通信网频率规划的方法以及频率规划所涉及的电磁兼容分析模型,研究模型化分析方法和基于模型分析的仿真过程。     

打桩船桩架加高改造探索

为了满足万吨级码头施工的需要,“航工桩八”的桩架必须实施加高改造。详细介绍了附架的设计、改造后打桩架的强度校核等。经过实际使用,该船沉桩情况正常能力得到提高,改造效益得到体现,附架结构设计基本满足各种强度、稳定性要求。