基于可靠性方框图与蒙特卡洛仿真的船舶配电网可靠性分析方法

国船舶工业发展迅速,尤其在近几年迎来了跨越式的发展。船舶建设工业的发展能充分体现一个国家的经济和国防建设水平。但船舶配电网拓扑结构与陆上电网不尽相同,其运行环境非常恶劣,供电连续性和可靠性成为衡量船舶生命力的重要指标,同时也深刻影响大型船舶的平均寿命。因此,可靠性研究在船舶建设中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本研究以典型大型船舶中压配电网结构为研究对象,在全系统元件正常运行时相互独立的情况下,重点研究不可维修与可维修下的系统可靠度、MTBF、可用度、停运时间和失效数等,并进行详细的分析与讨论。首先,本文综合考察各种可靠性分析方法的适用性和准确性,选择利用可靠性框图、最小路集分析法计算并分析不可维修情况下系统的可靠度、平均故障间隔时间等可靠性指标；接着,本文简述了配电网的多种维修任务类型,并采用最小路集法与蒙特卡洛仿真法相结合的方法计算并分析可维修系统的可用度、停电时间、失效数等指标。本文研究结果对船舶配电网的设计、建造、运行和维修等具有积极的意义。     

Widening the Panama Canal and U.S. ports: historical and economic impact analyses

ABSTRACT

The economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion.     

Costs of air pollutants from shipping: a meta-regression analysis

ABSTRACT

This study estimated the external cost of air pollution from shipping by means of a meta-regression analysis, which has not been made before. Three pollutants, which were included in most of the primary studies, were considered: nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur dioxides (SO₂) and particulate matters with a diameter of max 2.5 micrometres (PM_2.5). All primary studies included damages of health and a majority added impacts on agriculture and estimated the cost of air pollutants by transferring cost estimates from studies on costs of air emissions from transports in Europe. Different regression models and estimators were used and robust results were found of statistically significant emission elasticities of below one, i.e. total external costs increase by less than 1% when emissions increase by 1%. There was a small variation between the pollutants, with the highest elasticity for PM_2.5 and lowest for NO_x. Calculations of the marginal external cost of the pollutants showed the same pattern, with this cost being approximately six times higher for PM_2.5 than for the other pollutants. Common to all pollutants was that the marginal external cost decreases when emission increases. Another robust result was a significant increase in the cost of studies published in journals compared with other publication outlets. These findings point out some caution when transferring constant external unit cost of air pollutant from shipping, which is much applied in the literature, and the cost functions estimated in this study could thus provide a complementary transfer mechanism.     

“天鲲号”超大型自航绞吸船辅钢桩门装置设计

针对自航绞吸船在艏部设置辅钢桩定位系统存在的影响航速等问题，“天鲲”号超大型自航绞吸挖泥船提出了在艏部设置钢桩门的解决方案。该解决方案不仅可以保持完整的艏部线型，减小航行阻力，而且还可以减小辅钢桩甲板作业空间。本文介绍了“天鲲”号辅钢桩门装置的设计方案，以及辅桩钢桩门结构设计，最后提出了辅钢桩门开闭油缸等关键设备的选型计算方法及选型结果。本文可为超大型自航绞吸式挖泥船的辅钢桩门装置的设计分析提供参考和设计思路。     

城市轨道交通列车故障救援延误计算与仿真

针对城市轨道交通列车故障救援方式及延误计算问题,对列车故障救援作业流程进行分析,然后根据作业流程建立5种救援方式的延误计算方法,最后使用Open track对福州市某地铁线路进行列车故障救援仿真,并对仿真与计算结果进行比较分析.研究结果表明:在一定范围内提高救援速度可有效减小救援列车作业时间;所提出的计算方法可较为准确反映延误情况;在救援起讫点内,以固定闭塞运行的后序列车的延误会突增并积累,造成延误增幅的差异.     

Ti含量及冷却速度对Al-Mn-Ti合金组织的影响

采用高频感应炉对Al-Mn-Ti合金进行制备和研究,探究Ti含量及冷却速度对Al-Mn-Ti合金组织的影响.研究结果表明:未加Ti时,Al-Mn-Ti的合金组织由Al基体和T相准晶组成;加入Ti元素后,合金组织中出现花瓣状准晶Al_(72)Mn_(10)Ti_(18),随Ti含量的增加,花瓣状准晶增多,形状无明显变化;当Ti含量增加到7%时,组织中的Al基体消失,由T相准晶和花瓣状准晶Al_(72)Mn_(10)Ti_(18)组成.随冷却速度增加,过冷度增大,花瓣状准晶Al_(72)Mn_(10)Ti_(18)进一步生长形成树枝状的二次枝晶.     

大型综合体深基坑分期开挖关键技术

我国正处于城市建设的大力发展时期,在城市建设进程中,通过推进城市地下空间的综合开发利用,将为城市带来巨大的经济效益。光谷广场地下综合体在建设过程中,针对大型综合深基坑支护稳定、地表建筑物结构安全、既有枢纽交通不中断、复杂地下管线迁改、市区施工环保达标等问题,提出并应用了基坑开挖可视化交底、围护桩干法灌注、多层深基坑不平衡支护、围护结构爆破拆除等多项关键技术,显著减少了大型基坑工程开挖对周边建筑物的影响及对周边交通的影响(不中断交通),实现了各类管线的顺利迁改,为以后城市地下交通枢纽综合体设计及施工积累了丰富经验,为今后城市地下立体多元化交通建设发展奠定了基础,为城市地下空间开发提供了实践依据。     

船舶动力设备退化基线计算及预测方法

船舶动力设备在自身性能退化过程中的相当长一段时间内仍能完成规定功能,对具有重要特征参数或性能指标的船舶动力设备而言,若使用定基线进行健康状态评估会导致评估值连续较低甚至误报警问题。为了解决这一问题,以目标设备按性能退化时间序列采集的特征参数为研究对象,首先建立退化基线计算方法,利用滑动概率神经网络和性能可靠度与基线值间的转换函数获得目标设备的动态退化基线;然后建立ARMA预测模型获得预测参数,并与退化基线计算方法结合对退化基线发生动态变化的时间节点进行预测;最后利用海水泵对建立的方法可行性进行验证。结果表明,本文建立的退化基线计算方法能够获得动态基线,退化基线预测方法能够对动态基线的变化时间节点进行准确预测。