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271.
The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available
for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near
future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric
models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression
(NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station.
Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively
than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic
nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is
recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region. 相似文献
272.
T. A. Wenzel K. J. Burnham M. V. Blundell R. A. Williams 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》2006,44(2):153-171
The article demonstrates the implementation of a model-based vehicle estimator, which can be used for combined estimation of vehicle states and parameters. The estimator is realised using the dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) technique, which makes use of two Kalman filters running in parallel, thus 'splitting' the state and parameter estimation problems. Note that the two problems cannot be entirely separated due to their inherent interdependencies. This technique provides several advantages, such as the possibility to switch off the parameter estimator, once a sufficiently good set of estimates has been obtained. The estimator is based on a four-wheel vehicle model with four degrees of freedom, which accommodates the dominant modes only, and is designed to make use of several interchangeable tyre models. The paper demonstrates the appropriateness of the DEKF. Results to date indicate that this is an effective approach, which is considered to be of potential benefit to the automotive industry. 相似文献
273.
Michaë l J. M. M. Steenbergen 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》2006,44(10):763-787
A classification of wheel-rail contact is given. Difference is made between modelling of a running wheel with continuous single-point-contact, as is common practice in wheel-rail contact analysis, and a wheel with transient double- or multi-point-contact, which may occur for rail irregularities with curvatures larger than that of the wheel circumference. It is shown that application of the first model for these irregularities will strongly underestimate the contact forces as it does not describe occurring mechanisms correctly. Further, it is shown that in principle it is not possible to describe the second type of contact fully correct with a lumped wheel model. Both wheel models are formulated mathematically for some basic contact cases. Afterwards, results are applied to a linear track model. Analytical closed-form solutions are found in the frequency domain for arbitrary type of contact and numerically transformed to the time domain. Finally, the necessity is shown to avoid situations where transient multiple-point-contact may occur (like rail joints) in practice. 相似文献
274.
Mohammad Biglarbegian Jean W. Zu 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》2006,44(11):871-885
This article presents a model for solving solid-fluid interactions in vehicles carrying liquids. A tractor-semitrailer model is developed by incorporating suspension systems and tire dynamics. Owing to the solid-fluid interaction, equations of motion for the vehicle system are coupled. To simplify the complicated solution procedure, the coupled equations are solved separately using two different codes. Each code is analyzed separately; but as the parameters of the two codes depend on each other, the codes must be connected at the end of each time step. To determine the dynamic behavior of the system, different braking moments are applied. As the braking moments increase, braking time decreases. However, it turns out that increasing the braking moment to more than a certain level produces no significant results. It is also shown that vehicles carrying fluids need a greater amount of braking moments in comparison to vehicles carrying solids during braking. In addition, as the level of the fluid inside the tanker increases, from one-third to two-third of the tanker's volume, the sloshing forces applied to the tanker's walls increase. It was also concluded that the strategy used in this article to solve for the solid-fluid interaction by incorporating vehicle dynamic effects represents an effective method for determining the dynamic behavior of vehicles carrying fluids in other critical maneuvers. 相似文献
275.
In this work, laboratory experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the effect of feedback on decision-making under uncertainty,
with and without provided information about travel times. We discuss the prediction of travelers’ response to uncertainty
in two route–choice situations. In the first situation travelers are faced with a route–choice problem in which travel times
are uncertain but some external information about routes’ travel times is provided. The second situation takes place in a
more uncertain environment in which external information about travel times is not provided, and the travelers’ only source
of information is their own experience. Experimental results are in conflict with the paradigm about traveler information
systems: As a consequence of information, the propensity of travelers to minimize expected travel time is not necessarily
increased. Providing travelers with static information about expected travel times reveals an increase in the heterogeneity
of travelers’ choices and reduces the maximization rate. 相似文献
276.
Shih-Che Lo Randolph W. Hall 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2006,40(10):903-917
In this paper we investigate the effect of the Los Angeles transit strike on highway congestion through analysis of highway sensor data, using both a before-and-after comparison, and a control group comparison. We found that average 5:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. traffic speeds declined by as much as 20% during the strike, and the average length of the rush period increased by as much as 200%, even though increases in traffic were small, despite the fact that transit riders constitute a small fraction of the traveling population. Speeds declined the most at locations upstream from the places where queues normally end. We believe that highways are especially susceptible to congestion during strikes because travelers have little opportunity to adjust and equilibrate their travel patterns, as is possible during ordinary periods of traffic growth. 相似文献
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