Origin–destination table disaggregation using biproportional least squares estimation

This paper describes a group of techniques for disaggregating origin–destination tables for travel forecasting that makes explicit use of observed traffic on a network. Five models within the group are presented, each of which uses nonlinear least-squares estimation to obtain row and column factors for splitting trip totals from and to larger geographical areas into smaller ones. The techniques are philosophically similar to Fratar factoring, although the solution method is quite different. The techniques are tested on a full-sized network for Northfield, MN and are found to work effectively.     

American and European transportation responses to the 1973–74 oil embargo

A survey of U.S. and European responses to the energy crises engendered by the Arab boycott of October 1973–April 1974 is presented. U.S. Government policy actions with respect to allocation, rationing, price, and conservation measures are reviewed and contrasted with those of affected European governments. The results of those policies and their effects on transportation energy supply and demand behavior with respect to both commodity and passenger movement are described.Based on short- and long-term impact assessments of the policies considered, the authors identify significant research requirements.The authors were heavily engaged in U.S. responses to the energy emergency, and were asked to undertake study missions to those European nations significantly affected by the crisis to seek out avenues for mutual aid, and joint research, in resolving common energy problems. This paper is one product of those study missions.     

British OSV companies in the North Sea, 1964-1997

In the mid 1960s the world OSV industry was dominated by American operators, but with the rise of the North Sea offshore industry, British entrepreneurs were given the chance to contest American dominance. By the mid 1970s British OSV companies had made great progress and, at least in the North Sea context, their principal rivals were now the Norwegians rather than the Americans. British OSV companies continued to prosper until the world oil price collapse of 1986. This blow led to a restructuring of the British OSV industry, which led, by the mid-1990s, to Stirling Shipping being the principal British OSV firm in the North Sea and OIL being the largest non-American OSV company in the world. The 1997 sale of OIL to the Americans was a blow to the British OSV sector, but British enterprise in this field still continues in the North Sea.     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.     

Simplifications for single-route transit-ridership forecasting models

The growth in popularity of microcomputers has reemphasized the need for simplified transit-planning techniques. This paper describes and evaluates a single-route ridership forecasting model which is designed to fit within a modest-sized microcomputer. The model is based upon the traditional four-step urban transportation modeling process, but it is simplified by removing the possibility of multiple transfers and by eliminating the highway network. An analysis of model error shows that these simplifications do not appreciably affect the accuracy of the forecasts. A particular advantage of implementing the model on a microcomputer is the user-friendliness that can be achieved by employing interactive color graphics for data input.     

China shipbuilding management challenges in the 1980s

Since the economic reforms in the late 1970s, the shipbuilding industry in China has enjoyed rapid growth. Over the past two decades, many new building contracts have been won and successfully completed. However, some shipyards have also suffered great losses. Basing on their experience in Southern China, the authors examine some of the major challenges that Chinese shipbuilders faced during this transitional period, when the industry ventured into the international market. These challenges are broadly categorized into two areas: (i) external factors, such as inflation and infrastructural support that the shipbuilder had no control over, and (ii) shipbuilding management, which the shipbuilder had to master in order to gain competitive advantage. Suggestions on how these problems could be tackled are discussed.     

Integrated Coastal Management in Philippine Local Governance: Evolution and Benefits

In 1991 the Philippine government shifted many coastal management responsibilities to local governments and fostered increased local participation in the management of coastal resources. In their delivery of integrated coastal management (ICM) as a basic service, many local governments have achieved increasing public awareness of coastal resource management (CRM) issues. Continuing challenges are financial sustainability, inadequate capacities, weak law enforcement, and lack of integrated and collaborative efforts. To address these challenges, a CRM certification system was developed to improve strategies and promote incentives for local governments to support ICM. This system is being applied by an increasing number of local governments to guide the development and implementation of ICM in their jurisdiction. The CRM benchmarks required for a local government to achieve the first level of certification are: budget allocated, CRM related organizations formed and active, CRM plan developed and adopted, shoreline management initiated and two or more best practices implemented. Implementation is providing tangible benefits to communities through enhanced fisheries production associated with MPAs, revenues from user fees and enhanced community pride through learning exchanges and involvement in decisions, among others.