Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

考虑疲劳强度和减轻质量的转向架构架设计

用有限元法对各种载荷工况下的转向架构架进行了疲劳分析,利用人工神经网络和遗传算法最大程度地减轻了转向架构架的质量.     

A Novel Image Encryption Technique Based on Inter Block Difference

Data security plays a vital role in the current scenario due to the advanced and sophisticated data access techniques.Present development in data access is alwa...     

Design and implementation of a UPnP-can gateway for automotive environments

In this paper, we propose a universal plug and play (UPnP) — controller area network (CAN) gateway system using UPnP middleware for interoperability between external smart devices and an in-vehicle network. The proposed gateway consists of a UPnP communication device, a CAN communication device, and a device translator layer. In-vehicle devices are not usually IP-based, so we implemented an in-vehicle device manager in the UPnP communication device which is in the gateway. We developed a vehicle simulator to produce real vehicular data for performance analysis. The CAN communication device transmits and receives real-time vehicle data between the real vehicular simulator and external devices through the UPnP. The device translator layer configures a message frame for enabling seamless data input and output between the CAN and UPnP protocols. After implementation, we generated an internal-external service request and tested the result. Finally, we confirmed the service request and operation between external devices and the internal vehicular device. Additionally, for a variety of external device numbers and communication environments, we demonstrated the gateway performance by measuring the round trip time (RTT) for overall service implementation.     

Shipping and investment incentives: a trilogy Part 2. Investment incentives for shipping

This paper concentrates on the shipping industry and considers the forms of fiscal and financial incentives which are used by different governments to promote or encourage investment in their shipping industry. The analysis reduces the various packages of investment incentives and loan arrangements to a common measurement—the net present value of the package—and uses this to draw international comparisons and rankings. The results are based on different values of rates of return in the shipping industry and under certain assumptions concerning the rate of inflation and the rate of discount. Differences in loan arrangements have also been incorporated. The particular results are valid only for the specified circumstances but the methodology is generally applicable.     

Use of a probabilistic particle tracking model to simulate the Prestige oil spill

A probabilistic particle tracking model is used to simulate the oil dispersion after the Prestige wreckage. This oil spill constitutes a suitable benchmark to analyze the capabilities of a probabilistic model, since the time elapsed from wreckage to oil landing (12 days) is much longer than the reliability time associated with forecast winds, usually on the order of 3–4 days. The particle model can be run in two different modes: real time mode (when existing reliable wind fields for the event under scope) and in probabilistic mode (in absence of reliable wind fields but with historical fields corresponding to a similar period). The validity of the particle model is first evaluated in a hindcast way, running the Prestige case with the wind fields corresponding to the period November 19 to November 30, 2002, which were not available at the moment of the wreckage. Calculations show the accuracy of the model to provide the right impact point and timing. The probabilistic model is then used to simulate the same event by means of historical data. The region where the oil landed is shown to be the area with the highest probability to be impacted.     

Optimal Active Suspension Design Using a Frequency-shaping PID Filter

By the incorporation of frequency-shaping into the linear quadratic methods used in active suspension design it is possible to achieve improvements in both body frequency response and road-holding. The use of a PID filter for this purpose also leads to robustness of the system to disturbance forces. Zero steady-state deflections are achieved for applied body loads by the integral action with excellent attenuation of the transient response. The resulting system consists of a hydraulic actuator in parallel with a body spring of arbitrary stiffness and is optimal with equivalent full state feedback.     

Initial results from long-term measurements of atmospheric humidity and related parameters in the marine boundary layer at two locations in the Gulf of Mexico

Measurements of boundary layer moisture have been acquired from Rotronic MP-100 sensors deployed on two NDBC buoys in the northern Gulf of Mexico from June through November 1993. For one sensor, which was retrieved approximately 8 months after deployment, the post- and precalibrations agreed closely and fell well within WMO specifications for accuracy. The second sensor operated continuously from June 1993 to February 1997 (3.5 years). Buoy observations of relative humidity and supporting data were used to calculate specific humidity and the surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat. Specific humidities from the buoys were compared with observations of moisture obtained from nearby ship reports, and the correlations were generally high (0.7–0.9). Surface gravity wave spectra were also acquired. The time series of specific humidity and the other buoy parameters revealed three primary scales of variability, small (h), synoptic (days), and seasonal (months). The synoptic variability was clearly dominant and occurred primarily during September, October, and November. Most of the synoptic variability was due to frontal systems that dropped down into the Gulf of Mexico from the continental US followed by air masses which were cold and dry. Cross-correlation analyses of the buoy data indicated that: (1) the moisture field was highly coherent over distances of 800 km or more in the northern Gulf of Mexico; and (2) both specific humidity and air temperature served as tracers of the motion associated with propagating atmospheric disturbances. These correlation analyses also revealed that the prevailing weather systems generally entered the buoy domain from the South prior to September, but primarily from the North thereafter. Spectra of the various buoy parameters indicated strong diurnal and semidiurnal variability for barometric pressure and sea surface temperature (SST) and lesser variability for air temperature, wind speed and significant wave height. The surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat were dominated by the synoptic events which took place from September through November with the transfer of latent heat being primarily from the ocean to the atmosphere. Finally, an analysis of the surface wave observations from each buoy, which included calculations of wave age and estimates of surface roughness, indicate that major heat and moisture flux events coincide with periods of active wave growth, although the data were insufficient to identify any causal relationships.