Options-Based Multi-Objective Evaluation of Product Platforms

A platform is the set of elements and interfaces that are common to a family of products. Design teams must choose among feasible platform concepts upon which a product family could be based, often involving new technologies. Multiple performance objectives need to be considered. A standard approach is to convert the performance outcomes into financial figures, which can then be weighed against the required investments. However, it is not always possible to transform performance outcomes (benefits) into monetary terms, such as in defense or highly technical projects. A multi-objective form of real-options-based platform selection is developed. Systems are compared based on multiple technical and economic goals, incorporating uncertainty by representing the unknown factors during the subsequent development process with probability distributions. The range of uncertain outcomes is integrated into single expected measures of effectiveness, which can then be applied to select the most appropriate platform and set of support product variants. An application to the design of platform-based families of naval high-speed ships is shown.     

Lane change algorithm for autonomous vehicles via virtual curvature method

This paper addresses the lane changing problem of autonomous vehicles when there is no road infrastructure support. The autonomous vehicle should drive from the current lane to the adjacent lane in the absence of a reference path to guide the vehicle to the new lane. We suggest an algorithm that incorporates a virtual road curvature with bicycle model for lane change guidance. As the name suggests, the virtual road curvature does not physically exist. It is a user assigned radius of a curved path which connects the current lane to the adjacent lane. Since the lateral sensor readings during lane changing maneuver are erroneous, the steering angle along with the virtual curvature is fed into a bicycle model to estimate the lateral position during the transition to the next lane. Details of the algorithm and the virtual road curvature determination are presented in the paper. In contrast to other lane changing methods, controller switching is not required and the same controller is for both lane keeping and lane changing. The algorithm is verified experimentally and the results are comparable with lane changing with physical transition lane.     

美国铁路客车的发展动向与水平

文章阐述了美国地铁、高速列车等轨道车辆的发展水平、动态,以及铁道车辆市场现状。介绍了美国针对铁路事故而开展提高车辆强度、抗碰撞能力的研究及取得的成果。     

Estimation of air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Bay of Biscay based on empirical relationships and remotely sensed observations

An empirical algorithm has been developed to compute the sea surface CO₂ fugacity (fCO₂^sw) in the Bay of Biscay from remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST_RS) and chlorophyll a (chl a_RS) retrieved from AVHRR and SeaWiFS sensors, respectively. Underway fCO₂^sw measurements recorded during 2003 were correlated with SST_RS and chl a_RS data yielding a regression error of 0.1 ± 7.5 µatm (mean ± standard deviation). The spatial and temporal variability of air–sea fCO₂ gradient (ΔfCO₂) and air–sea CO₂ flux (FCO₂) was analyzed using remotely sensed images from September 1997 to December 2004. An average FCO₂ of ? 1.9 ± 0.1 mol m^? 2 yr^? 1 characterized the Bay of Biscay as a CO₂ sink that is suffering a significant long-term decrease of 0.08 ± 0.05 mol m^? 2 yr^? 2 in its capacity to store atmospheric CO₂. The main parameter controlling the long-term variability of the CO₂ uptake from the atmosphere was the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity (57%), followed by the SST_RS (10%) and the chl a_RS (2%).     

Propagation and origin of warm anomalies in the Angola Benguela upwelling system in 2001

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures were observed by the Tropical Rainfall Mission Microwave Imager in the Angola Benguela Current system in late austral summer 2001 and persisted for about three months. These coastal anomalies extended offshore by 1 to 4° longitude and were not due to local ocean atmosphere interaction or relaxation of the upwelling favorable southerly winds. Instead, they were remotely forced by ocean atmosphere interaction in the Tropical Atlantic. Satellite remote sensing and a linear ocean model suggest that relaxation of trade winds along the equator triggered Kelvin waves that crossed the basin within a month in early 2001. Westerly wind anomalies were also observed in December 2000 and January 2001 over most of the Tropical Atlantic contributing to a warm preconditioning due to an enhancement of the oceanic annual cycle. This led to abnormal sea level heights near equatorial Africa that propagated southwards along the coast towards the Angola Benguela Frontal zone. This process increased the seasonal penetration of warm and salty water of tropical origin into the Angola Benguela upwelling system.     

An efficient algorithm for building min-path trees for all origins in a multi-class network

Urban transportation planning models consume untold hours of computer time building zillions of min-path trees. Their networks have tens of thousands of arcs, accommodate several trip classes, and solve the traffic equilibrium problem via many, many iterations of min-path calculations for thousands of origins and destinations. This paper presents a simple algorithm that couples restricted reduced-cost analysis with label-correcting, which can reduce this min-path tree building time substantially. For a given origin, the algorithm rapidly transforms a tree for one class to that for next class. Test results using synthetic data suggest that its application to real networks should experience speedups of at least a factor of 2.0 and perhaps beyond 5.0.     

Effective arterial road incident detection: A Bayesian network based algorithm

Timely and accurate incident detection is an essential part of any successful advanced traffic management system. The complex nature of arterial road traffic makes automated incident detection a real challenge. Stable performance and strong transferability remain major issues concerning the existing incident detection algorithms. A new arterial road incident detection algorithm TSC_ar is presented in this paper. In this algorithm, Bayesian networks are used to quantitatively model the causal dependencies between traffic events (e.g. incident) and traffic parameters. Using real time traffic data as evidence, the Bayesian networks update the incident probability at each detection interval through two-way inference. An incident alarm is issued when the estimated incident probability exceeds the predefined decision threshold. The Bayesian networks allow us to subjectively build existing traffic knowledge into their conditional probability tables, which makes the knowledge base for incident detection robust and dynamic. Meanwhile, we incorporate intersection traffic signals into traffic data processing. A total of 40 different types of arterial road incidents are simulated to test the performance of the algorithm. The high detection rate of 88% is obtained while the false alarm rate of the algorithm is maintained as low as 0.62%. Most importantly, it is found that both the detection rate and false alarm rate are not sensitive to the incident decision thresholds. This is the unique feature of the TSC_ar algorithm, which suggests that the Bayesian network approach is advanced in enabling effective arterial road incident detection.     

Comparative analysis between operational weather prediction models and QuikSCAT wind data near the Galician coast

Wind measurements from SeaWinds scatterometer on the NASA QuikSCAT satellite and wind forecasts from two different operational numerical models provided by MeteoGalicia were compared for a 4-year period (2002–2005) in Galician coast environment. Available wind data buoy measurements were also used to complement the analysis. A statistical analysis based on mean errors, root mean square errors and complex correlation was performed from spatial, temporal and directional points of view.In the spatial comparison no significant differences between models and satellite were observed and the error magnitudes of the models are compatible with typical QuikSCAT errors. The suitability of satellite wind estimations for data assimilation in these models must be further investigated. Negative bias of models with respect to the satellite was also confirmed with buoy data, in such a way that models overestimation is smaller than the satellite one. Big errors in wind direction appear in southeasterly and southwesterly winds for both satellite and models, contributing to high RMSE values when compared to buoy data. These errors were mainly attributed to the effect of insufficient spatial resolution near shore.     

The vertical disintegration of ship management: choice criteria for third party selection and evaluation

An assessment of the rationale for the vertical disintegration of ship management suggests that there might be compelling economic benefits for the separation of ownership from management. In this context, as a means for developing effective marketing strategies, it is important for ship managers to know the criteria used by current and prospective clients for ship manager selection and evaluation. The aim of this paper is to empirically identify the dimensions for ship manager selection and performance evaluation and their relative importance and to discuss the implications for marketing emanating from such an assessment. The methodology adopted includes the collection of secondary and primary data, both from ship managers and their clients, using interviews and a mail survey. The results indicate the prevailing importance of certain dimensions in selection (e.g. technical ability, reputation, competency) and evaluation (responsiveness, trustworthiness, technical ability), whereas it also found that price alone is not perceived to be as important in ship manager selection. It is concluded that placing emphasis on such dimensions in the formulation of a marketing strategy will contribute towards the attraction and retention of clients, whereas cost-cutting measures to allow price reduction, as well as advertising, will be ineffective over the long term.