Safety Evaluation for Freeway Exit Ramp Based on Speed Consistency

Speed differential has direct relationship with road safety. Conventional speed consistency measures draw sample data from independent population that follows a normal distribution. These methods may fall into ecological fallacy and overestimate the safety level of road elements. After deducing the relationship between the difference in operating speed ΔV₈₅ and85(ΔV), the 85^th percentile value of individual speed reduction, this paper recommends 85(ΔV) and speed reduction rate 85(ΔV)R is used to evaluate ramp safety. Point speeds of individual vehicle at freeway diverge area, upper ramp, and lower ramp are collected by radar guns. Safety performance of 37 exit ramps are appraised using three different measures, namely, ΔV₈₅, 85(ΔV), and 85(ΔV)R. The results show that 85(ΔV) is 1.42 to 2.02 times of ΔV₈₅, and that the evaluation result of 85(ΔV)R is between the other two. The measure 85(ΔV)R considers not only individual speed but also the base speed on upstream element, which avoid the pitfalls of ecological fallacy and overestimation possessed by conventional measures. It is a safer and reasonable measure that should be adopted in practice.     

Non-Linear Combined Prediction Model of Medium and Long-Term Civil Vehicle Population of China

With consideration of the economy development tendency in China, a civil vehicle population prediction model is developed based on the space-time theory. First, with the domestic and international experience on vehicle development, the gray Verhulst model is used to describe the vehicle population development tendency and predict the vehicle population in the next 20 years. Second, several social and economical indexes related to the civil vehicle population are selected by comparing the correlation coefficient value, and then, the principal component method is used to reduce dimension of the selected indexes and obtain some principal indexes. Based on the econometrics theory, a forecasting model is formulated to predict the vehicle population in the next 20 years. Integrating these two forecasting models, a non-liner combination forecasting model is developed based on the BP neural network. The reliability and accuracy of the linear combination forecasting model are tested by the vehicle data from 2003 to 2007. Finally, the civil vehicle population of China in the next 20 years is predicted based on the linear combination forecasting model.     

徐州铁路枢纽与城市交通系统耦合初探

铁路枢纽和城市交通系统作为相对独立的运输系统在各自领域发挥了重要作用.如何将这两种运输系统有机耦合,进行系统优化,发挥两者综合效能,以徐州铁路枢纽为例,结合城市规划,进行了分析与探讨,提出耦合方案.     

桥梁伸缩缝问题的探讨与研究概述

文中阐述了桥梁伸缩缝存在问题,从影响伸缩缝的两大主要因素温度和混凝土材料两方面总结了减少其破坏的有效方法,对桥梁伸缩缝的设计施工具有重要指导意义。     

Taurus轿车车门侧面碰撞有限元分析

汽车侧面碰撞法规对车门强度有明确的要求,车门作为车身的主要部件之一对汽车的侧面碰撞安全性有着重要的影响。以非线性有限元理论为基础,在Hypermesh中建立了Taurus轿车车门有限元模型,参考侧面碰撞法规对车门进行侧面碰撞模拟分析。并对车门结构进行改进,探讨了相应的轿车侧面碰撞安全性改进措施,通过对研究方案的对比分析,在一定程度上改善了车门的抗侧碰性能。     

沉井-土动力相互作用对大跨悬索桥地震反应的影响

以一座大跨悬索桥中塔沉井基础为工程背景,采用"m"法建立了沉井-土动力相互作用计算模型,研究了沉井-土动力相互作用对全桥结构地震反应的影响,并对其影响机理进行了探讨,最后分析了河床冲刷深度的变化对结构地震反应的影响。研究结果表明,沉井-土动力相互作用对边塔的地震反应影响较小,但会增大中塔的地震反应;考虑沉井-土动力相互作用时,在与基础的自振周期相近时,结构的地震反应表现出显著的共振效应,使得结构地震反应增大;河床冲刷深度变化对结构的地震反应有很大的影响,随着冲刷深度的增加,桥梁结构的地震反应并不是单调变化,而可能出现一个峰值。     

超级电容性能试验与建模研究

试验研究了超级电容的参考容量、内阻、开路电压、脉冲功率等主要性能参数。根据试验数据和一阶串联内阻电路模型建立超级电容仿真模型,并在稳态工况和动态工况试验中验证了仿真模型的有效性。试验结果表明,该模型可以用于含有超级电容的混合动力系统仿真,对该类混合动力系统的动态协调与能量管理问题研究具有重要意义。     

居民出行分布预测的改进模型研究

出行分布量与小区间现状出行有关,也与连接两小区间的道路网络及起终点的用地性质有关,传统出行分布预测模型都只考虑了这些因素的某一方面,因而在预测中经常会出现与实际明显不符的预测结果。按照出行个体在选择出行目的地时的行为,将影响出行目的地选择的几个重要因素：现状OD、小区用地性质、出行成本综合考虑,并按照影响方式不同,建立出行分布预测模型。计算实例表明,该模型的预测结果优于传统模型。     

重庆朝天门长江大桥扣索施工工艺

重庆朝天门长江大桥主桥为三跨连续中承式钢桁系杆拱桥。主桥钢桁梁采用悬臂架设,中跨主拱采用架设扣塔安装。其扣索采用高强度、低松弛钢绞线,单根穿挂、单根张拉工艺施工。扣索的施工主要包括施工准备工作、钢绞线下料、施工平台搭设、固定端穿索、张拉端穿索、张拉、索箍和减振器安装、扣索拆除等工序。采用MIDAS/Civil有限元软件中的空间梁单元、索单元、桁架单元建立空间杆系模型,对扣索的各根钢绞线张拉力精确计算,所有钢绞线逐根一次张拉到设计值,所有扣索最后无须调索。     

马鹿箐隧道泄水洞管道流径流的特征分析

通过对突水地段岩溶水文地质特征、充水管道突水特征、突泥物特性等的分析研究,进行涌水量(突水量)的预测,评价突水对工程和环保的影响,以指导设计和工.隧道突水为揭露管道流而产生,管道流为独立的单管式,与浅部岩溶水带和其它暗河系统缺乏水力联系,采取适当措施加强排水,对环境不致产生重大影响.