Simulation‐based estimates of delays at freeway work zones

Work zone related traffic delay is an important cost component on freeways with maintenance activities. This study demonstrates that delays may be underestimated by using the deterministic queuing theory. Computer simulation is a valuable approach of estimating delay under a variety of existing and future conditions. However, a single simulation run, which can be quite costly in terms of both computer and analyst time, produces a delay estimate for only one traffic level under one set of conditions. A method is developed in this paper to approximate delays by integrating limited simulation data, obtained from CORSIM and the concept of deterministic queuing theory, while various geometric conditions and time‐varying traffic distribution are considered. A calibrated and validated simulation model that can reflect work zone traffic operations on a segment of Interstate 1–80 in New Jersey is used to generate data for developing the proposed model. The comparison of delays estimated by the deterministic queuing model and the proposed model is conducted, while factors affecting the accuracy of the delay estimates are discussed.     

Modeling the bilateral micro‐searching behavior for urban taxi services using the absorbing markov chain approach

This paper develops a mathematical model that is based on the absorbing Markov chain approach to describe taxi movements, taking into account the stochastic searching processes of taxis in a network. The local searching behavior of taxis is specified by a logit form, and the O‐D demand of passengers is estimated as a logit model with a choice of taxi meeting point. The relationship between customer and taxi waiting times is modeled by a double‐ended queuing system. The problem is solved with a set of non‐linear equations, and some interesting results are presented. The research provides a novel and potentially useful formulation for describing the urban taxi services in a network.     

RECENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF POLYMER OPTICAL FIBRES

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Impact of freshwater on a subarctic coastal ecosystem under seasonal sea ice (southeastern Hudson Bay, Canada). III. Feeding success of marine fish larvae

We monitored the feeding success (percent feeding incidence at length and mean feeding ratio at length) of Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and sand lance (Ammodytes sp.) larvae in relation to prey density, light, temperature and potential predator density under the ice cover of southeastern Hudson Bay in the spring of 1988, 1989 and 1990. Both prey density and light limited larval fish feeding. The relationship between feeding success and actual food availability (nauplii density X irradiance) was adequately described by an Ivlev function which explained 64 and 76% of the variance in Arctic cod and sand lance feeding success respectively. By affecting both prey density and irradiance, the thickness of the Great Whale River plume (as defined by the depth of the 25 isohaline) was the main determinant of prey availability. Arctic cod and sand lance larvae stopped feeding when the depth of the 25 isohaline exceeded 9 m. Limitation of feeding success attributable to freshwater inputs occurred exclusively in 1988, the only time when the depth of the 25 isohaline exceeded the 9 m threshold. The close dependence of larval fish feeding success on the timing of the freshet and plume dynamics suggests a direct link between climate and survival of Arctic cod and sand lance larvae. The actual impact of climate fluctuations and/or hydro-electric developments on recruitment will depend on the fraction of the larval dispersal area of the two species that is affected by river plumes.     

Impact of forcing errors in the CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system. A sensitivity study

The CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system is presented in this paper, and an evaluation of the impact of errors in the forcing fields over its forecasts is carried out. The system is formed by several independent modules which provide forecasts of winds, currents and waves to an oil spill module which predicts the evolution of the spill.The typical twin-experiments experience is used paying special attention to a realistic characterization of the errors when perturbing the forcing fields. The results suggest that errors in the wind and current fields are the main limiting factor for the quality of the oil spill forecasts. The pollutant identification is also crucial to determine the final vertical position and characteristics of the product.     

The impact of port choice on inland transportation

The Belgian government intends to shift part of its funding away from Antwerp and towards other seaports, particularly Ghent and Zeebrugge. In the long run, this policy change will undoubtedly influence the port choice and probably cause a traffic diversion at the expense of Antwerp. This will have a great influence on the structure of inland transportation.

The impact of port choice on inland transportation is the central theme of this paper. To this end a disaggregated model of the demand for freight transport is constructed.     

Applying Human Systems Integration to the Rapid Acquisition Process

The rapidly changing complexity of the Global War on Terrorism has changed the approach to equipping forward-deployed military forces. Combatant Commanders conducting operations now require timely materiel solutions to enhance mission capabilities and reduce the risk for individual soldiers. To address this challenge, the US Army established the Rapid Equipping Force to assess emerging requirements, to propose solutions to those requirements, and to implement those solutions in an expedient time frame. Unfortunately, the REF lacks a consistent analytical methodology for assessing alternative materiel solutions. To address the need for a human systems integration (HSI) analysis method, the authors developed an Assessment-Based Rapid Acquisition HSI Analysis Method (ABRAHAM) capable of generating tailored surveys and evaluating these surveys for unacceptable risks to soldiers. To validate ABRAHAM's concept and content, ABRAHAM was showcased in three Department of Defense settings: the Human Factors Engineering Technical Advisory Group, the REF, and the US Marine Corps' Operational Test and Evaluation Activity. The ABRAHAM appears to fill a gap in the current library of HSI tools. Based on the feedback provided during the product showcases, there is sufficient interest and technological maturity to further develop ABRAHAM to serve both the traditional and rapid acquisition processes.     

Seasonal variability in sea surface oceanographic conditions in the Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean): an overview

Seasonal variability and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperatures (SST) and salinities (SSS) are reviewed, in relation to the prevailing climatological conditions, heat fluxes, water budget and general water circulation patterns. Within this context, consideration is given to: sea surface temperatures; air temperatures; precipitation; evaporation; wind speeds and directions; freshwater (mainly riverine) discharges throughout the Aegean; and the exchange of water masses with the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean Sea. The investigation of satellite images, covering a 6-yr period (1988–1994), has enabled a synthesis of the monthly sea surface thermal distribution to be established.The climate of the Aegean Sea is characterised by annual air temperatures of 16–19.5°C, precipitation of about 500 mm yr⁻¹ and evaporation of some 4 mm d⁻¹. The Aegean has a negative heat budget (approximately −25 W m⁻²) and positive water balance (+ 1.0 m yr⁻¹), when inflow from the Black Sea is considered. During the summer, the (northerly) Etesians are the dominant winds over the Sea.Mean monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) vary from 8°C in the north during winter, up to 26°C in the south during summer. SST depends mainly upon air temperature; there is a month's delay between the former and latter maxima. The sea surface salinity (SSS) varies also spatially and seasonally, ranging from less than 31 psu, in the north, to more than 39 psu, in the southeast; lower values (< 25 psu) occur adjacent to the river mouths. SSSs present their maximum differences during summer, whilst during winter and autumn the distribution of SSS is more uniform. The overall spatial SST and SSS distribution pattern is controlled by: distribution of the (colder) Black Sea Waters; advection of the (warmer) Levantine Waters, from the southeastern part of the Aegean; upwelling and downwelling; and, to a lesser extent, but locally important, freshwater riverine inflows.     

Scale and rationalization in container shipping

Return to scale are important in container shipping: service operators are continuing to increase the size of their vessels. Mr Seok-Min Lim's article 'Economies of container ship size' (Maritime pollicy and Management,21(2) pages 149-160, 1994) uses a sample of transPacific voyages to evaluate the effect of vessel scale on revenue and cost.Although the results are inconclusive,his study is of value in drawing attention to the revenue-side problems of large containerships. More data need to be collected before the effects of topping up with low-rated cargo on unit revenue retention can be assessed. Meanwhile the pursuit of scale aggravates over-tonnaging. The required response is further rationalization, through the medium of the conferences and the container consortia. In Europe both are under political attack. Operators need to convince the authorities of the soundness of the soundness of their case for adapting these institutions to the neeeds of times.Otherwise the scramble for scale could spell disaster.