A Note on Quantitative Definition of Risk

Risk analysis has become more and more important in practical application，but there has not been a widely accepted flame work and model for the research．Motivated by factor analysis method and Kaplan-Garrick’s quantitative defmition of risk，a general risk model Was established based on analyzing risk situations and employing information system and evidence theory，and Kaplan-Garrick’s result Was improved to introduce a frame word for analyzing and managing risk．     

广义简化牛顿迭代收敛研究

Banach空间E的某个区域到同型空间F的Fréchet可微的算子f:E→F,A:F→E是一个相反的固定的线性算子,迭代zn 1=zn-Af(zn)为简化牛顿迭代,其中n∈N0,A=Df(z0)-1.用KaHTOPOBИЧ的区域判据和Smale的点估计判据研究广义简化牛顿迭代的收敛性和收敛域的大小,并且包括当α(f,z)≤3-2 2时广义简化Newton迭代收敛情况.     

Design，Calculation and Model Test of Zhongshan Bridge

Zhongshan Bridge is a kind of steel arch bridge with a particular space-combined structure．The rationality of design．accuracy of theoretical calculation and reliability of transportation were studied．Its design，FEM calculation of stresses and strains，and model test were introduced in detail．The theoretical analysis and model test verified that the design was reliable and safe．The simulated stresses，rigidity and stability，which are based on the selected loading system and cross-section geometry，satisfy the related design standards．Some of the issues that need to be considered in the real bridge construction were also discussed．     

北京地铁西单车站初期支护试验

通过模型试验分析浅埋大跨度洞室采用双侧壁导坑法施工中不同开挖阶段，不同开挖部位的地表沉陷表现，得出后开挖一侧洞室是引起整个洞室地表沉陷迅速增长的关键，为工程的安全施工提供了参考。     

Strategy-Based Forecasting Model for Civil Airlines

Airlines usually pay more attention tO maintenance cost for efficiency improvement and consumption reduction．However，airlines，especially the domestic airlines，Can hardly predict the cost exactly due to the uncertainty and complexity until now．In practice，the cost is calculated by collecting and calculating the invoices afterwards．To settle the problem，a maintenance cost forecasting model is proposed in this paper．Maintenance activities are classified into scheduled maintenance and unscheduled maintenance．Scheduled maintenance is periodic，in which the required materials and man-power hours can be obtained properly in advance．Nevertheless，it is impossible to acquire the necessary in formation of unscheduled maintenance．According to the specific characteristics of each，Activity-Based Costing(ABC)and Cost Estimating Relationships(CERs)are introduced to attack the building of forecasting models，respectively．Then practical cases，the 3C check of MD-90 and the engine shop visit are adopted tO verify the cost forecasting models proposed．The results show that the models not only can predict the actual maintenance cost successfully，but also are helpful tO drawing up the maintenance program and managing the maintenance funds efficiently．     

Possibility of Strategic Alliance from Competition： A Game Analysis

The possibility for two competitive firms to form a strategic alliance was quantitatively analyzed with the game theory. The strategic alliance could be formed in an infinitely repeated game with complete information or a finitely repeated game with incomplete information. In the former situation, the discount ratio is important. If the discount ratio is large enough, alliance would be a possible solution. In the latter situation, the bigger the possibility of the rationality is, the more possible is for both firms to make strategic alliance.     

NEURAL NETWORKS PREDICTION FOR SEISMIC RESPONSE OF STRUCTURE UNDER THE LEVENBERG-MARQUARDT ALGORITHM

Activecontrolandsemi activecontrolarenewapproachestoseismichazardmitigationofstructure .Whileinactivecontrolorsemi activecontrol ,mea surementofstructurestate ,transmissionandcalcu lationofsignalandinflictionofcontrolforcerequiretime ,moreover ,controlforceiscalculatedaccordingtotheseismicresponseofstructureinlastepoch ,sothecontrolforceinactivecontrolorsemi activecontrolmaybedistortedduetotime delay .Suchdistortionusuallyincreasestheseismicresponseofstructureandmakesstructuremoredangerous[1-3…     

Repair and Strengthening Assessment of Existing Bridges Based on Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis

The strategy on repair and strengthening of existing bridges based on time-dependent reliability was analyzed with the maximum expected benefit as the objective function. A sample of risk-ranking decision was illustrated based on updated inspection information with 35 survival age. The effect of improvement of live loads and difference of repair methods on time-dependent reliability of existing bridges are considered. The results show that the decision method can be used in real project, with the cost of failure consequence and the risk of failure considered.     

低轮轨力转向架车轮辐板形状优化的可行性研究

增加列车轴重是提高铁路货运能力的一种有效手段,但货车轴重的增加,必然引起一系列的强度问题。采取把车轮直径由840mm增大为915mm,可以保证强度要求,但也增加了轮对死重。本文探讨了一种在不增加轮径的前提下,仅通过对车轮辐板进行形状优化,就可使其在25t轴重下可靠工作的优化设计方法。结果表明,对车轮轮辐断面形状优化后,可较大幅度地降低其温度应力,有可能使840mm车轮在25t轴重下的应力接近甚至低于原结构在21t轴重下的应力水平。     

机场跑道长度可靠性设计方法

将可靠性理论引入跑道长度计算,对有关变量作了统计分析,获得了空气相对密度、风速、驾驶误差系数、着陆接地点到跑道端的距离等变量的分布规律。采用遗传算法和重要抽样法进行了跑道长度可靠度分析,提出了一种基于可靠性理论的跑道长度设计方法,对永备机场进行了可靠性评价,其平均失效概率是4 75×10-4,实际失效概率为2×10-43×10-4,两者比较接近。计算结果表明可靠性方法对跑道长度设计和安全性评价是可行的。