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311.
P. A. B. Raffle 《运输评论》2013,33(4):315-345
Accidents are the third main cause of death in Europe with 40% of them due to road traffic accidents (RTAs). These victims are mainly young male drivers/riders and elderly pedestrians. One quarter of the deaths and 10% of the injuries are associated with alcohol. Consumption of alcohol is generally increasing. Ignorance of the effects of alcohol on the body and on the performance of skilled mental and physical tasks contributes to the number of road users who are impaired by alcohol. Alcohol is a depressant drug which impairs information processing in the brain. The risk of being involved in a RTA increases very rapidly with increasing concentration of alcohol in the body. There are probably two groups of drivers, the majority who do not drink, or who drink very little, before driving and those who regularly drink whether or not they are going to drive. The former (the social drinker) can do without his drink, the latter (the problem drinker) cannot. Various legislative measures have been introduced in different countries with varying success. Most developed countries now make it illegal to drive with more than a stipulated concentration of alcohol in the body. Much discussion centres round what further legal steps should be taken to reduce drinking and driving, especially the more widespread use of random roadside breath testing of drivers. Doctors are much concerned in this public health problem which causes such misery and waste of resources and are involved in research on the physical and psychological effects of alcohol, the best methods of educating drivers on these effects and, where necessary, identifying those who are misusing alcohol to the extent that they should be kept off the road. 相似文献
312.
Coastal management information is frequently communicated to stakeholders and the public through complicated management documents and engineering plans. With the recognition that public involvement in coastal decision-making processes should be widened have come calls to develop new techniques to communicate complicated coastal information. Using Virtual Reality Geographical Information Systems and visualization packages, such information may be presented using formats more suitable for public consultation and information dissemination exercises than those currently employed. Using a site on the north Norfolk coast of England, an integrated Geographical Information Systems based methodology is presented that allows the visualization of proposed coastal management interventions. Visualizations have been produced that can be published in traditional paper-based management documents, or electronically. The different visualizations are compared and the technical issues surrounding their use discussed. It is argued that the methodology has clear advantages over traditional communication methods, although further research is necessary to determine how it may be practically employed by coastal managers. 相似文献
313.
Using data collected from May 1978 to November 1996, this article assesses the effects of fluctuating water levels on the beach and shoreline at the Northeast Beach, Point Pelee, Lake Erie, Canada. To compare the serial dynamics of lake levels with net shoreline positional changes and beach net sediment flux, the data are transformed to standard scores to deal with the differences in the units and in the scale associated with each variable. The results demonstrate that over the 18-year period, fluctuating lake levels are associated with shifts in shoreline position and the development of various aggradational and degradational states at the beach. A sustained rapid rise in lake levels will initiate an erosional sequence which will persist even with declining water levels. With a persistent decline in water levels the beach and shoreline will adjust very gradually from unstable, erosional states to an aggradational state. Other results emphasize that those beach sectors directly governed by artificial structures suffered disproportionately higher erosion during high-water levels. Coastal managers must, therefore, be cognizant of the fact that shore protection devices must be carefully designed in order to be effective against the influence of fluctuating lake levels. 相似文献
314.
The paper undertakes a cost‐benefit analysis of a disinvestment using readily available data and demonstrates that a relatively straightforward yet systematic approach can provide useful input to the decision‐making process. Despite various assumptions necessitated by the analysis, it is argued that the net benefits of the railway line retention are unlikely to be significantly sensitive to their variation within feasible limits. The most significant component in the analysis is seen to be the operative costing system and it is argued that this should be revised. 相似文献
315.
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317.
This paper studies the external costs of surface freight transport in Spain and finds that a reduction occurred over the past15 years. The analysis yields two conclusions: trucks have experienced a reduction in external costs, and rail has lower externalities. The external costs of road freight transport decrease between 1993 and 2007 (44%). The external costs of rail freight increase by 12%. During this period, the external costs of road freight related to climate increase by 16%, oppositely than those from air pollution and accidents (51 and 44%). The external costs of rail related to pollutant emissions and climate increase by 4% and 43%. Oppositely, the external costs related to accidents decrease by 27%. Road freight generates eight times the external costs of rail, 2.35 Euro cents per tonne kilometre in 2005 (5.6% accidents, 74.7% air pollution and 19.7% climate) vs. 0.28 (13.4% accidents, 53.9% air pollution and 32.7% climate). 相似文献
318.
Probabilistic modelling of the ultimate strength of ship plates with non-uniform corrosion 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A. P. Teixeira C. Guedes Soares G. Wang 《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》2013,18(1):115-132
This paper presents the results of a parametric study of probabilistic modelling of the ultimate strength of ship plates with non-uniform corrosion represented by random fields. The load-shortening behaviour of the plates with non-uniform reduction of thickness due to corrosion under longitudinal compression is obtained using a general-purpose nonlinear finite element analysis program. A nonlinear time-dependent corrosion model is used to define the probabilistic characteristics of the random fields based on corrosion data measured in plate elements at different locations of bulk carriers. Based on the probabilistic models derived by Monte Carlo simulation, equations to predict the mean and the 5 % characteristic value of the ultimate strength of plates with non-uniform corrosion are developed. Finally a regression equation is proposed to take into account the effect of non-uniform corrosion patterns in the predictions of the ultimate strength of plates with uniform corrosion. 相似文献
319.
Reliability is an important factor in route, mode and also departure time choice analysis and is a key performance indicator for transport systems. However, the current metrics used to measure travel time variability may be not sufficient to fully represent reliability. Better understanding of the distributions of travel times is needed for the development of improved metrics for reliability. A comprehensive data analysis involving the assessment of longitudinal travel time data for two urban arterial road corridors in Adelaide, Australia, demonstrates that the observed distributions are more complex than previously assumed. The data sets demonstrate strong positive skew, very long upper tails, and sometimes bimodality. This paper proposes the use of alternative statistical distributions for travel time variability, with the Burr Type XII distribution emerging as an appropriate model for both links and routes. This statistical distribution has some attractive properties that make it suitable for explicit definition of many travel time reliability metrics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
320.
P.N. Smith 《运输规划与技术》2013,36(4):427-447
Abstract An intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) is a generalisation of a fuzzy set characterised by a truth membership function and a false membership function. The former is a lower bound on the grade of membership of the evidence in favour of a particular element belonging to the set and the latter is a lower bound on the negation of that element belonging to the set derived from evidence against that element belonging to the set. A similar concept is a vague set, though vague sets have been shown to be identical to IFSs. In the context of project evaluation, an IFS may be used to represent the degree to which a project satisfies a criterion and the degree to which it does not. Aggregation of such IFSs has been considered in recent years to identify a best project in terms of several criteria or factors. A particular desirable way to aggregate IFS is in terms of an ordered weighted average (OWA) which can be expressed in different forms such as arithmetic and geometric. In an OWA operator, weights are applied to the position of an element in the aggregation. In addition, hybrid OWA operators may be developed to not only weight the position of elements in the aggregation but the element itself. An example is given relating to the Kuranda Range Road upgrade (Queensland, Australia) which is limited by grade, poor overtaking opportunities, poor horizontal alignment and other constraints and the road is expected to become increasingly congested over the next few years. A more flexible multi-factor decision method is used to identify a ‘best’ project from a set of four alternative projects. 相似文献