Effective arterial road incident detection: A Bayesian network based algorithm

Timely and accurate incident detection is an essential part of any successful advanced traffic management system. The complex nature of arterial road traffic makes automated incident detection a real challenge. Stable performance and strong transferability remain major issues concerning the existing incident detection algorithms. A new arterial road incident detection algorithm TSC_ar is presented in this paper. In this algorithm, Bayesian networks are used to quantitatively model the causal dependencies between traffic events (e.g. incident) and traffic parameters. Using real time traffic data as evidence, the Bayesian networks update the incident probability at each detection interval through two-way inference. An incident alarm is issued when the estimated incident probability exceeds the predefined decision threshold. The Bayesian networks allow us to subjectively build existing traffic knowledge into their conditional probability tables, which makes the knowledge base for incident detection robust and dynamic. Meanwhile, we incorporate intersection traffic signals into traffic data processing. A total of 40 different types of arterial road incidents are simulated to test the performance of the algorithm. The high detection rate of 88% is obtained while the false alarm rate of the algorithm is maintained as low as 0.62%. Most importantly, it is found that both the detection rate and false alarm rate are not sensitive to the incident decision thresholds. This is the unique feature of the TSC_ar algorithm, which suggests that the Bayesian network approach is advanced in enabling effective arterial road incident detection.     

Large-scale physical controls on phytoplankton growth in the Irminger Sea Part I: Hydrographic zones, mixing and stratification

Hydrographic surveys in three consecutive seasons in the Irminger Sea in 2001/2002 have revealed six physical regimes (zones) in which different surface mixing and spring re-stratification processes dominate. They are the South Irminger Current, the North Irminger Current, the Central Irminger Sea, the Polar-origin East Greenland Current, the Atlantic-origin East Greenland Current and the Reykjanes Ridge. The variations in restratification processes in particular have significant implications for the timing of shallow spring mixed layer development and therefore the timing and strength of the spring bloom. The relative roles of heat and freshwater in controlling re-stratification are examined for each hydrographic zone, and it is shown that the simplest concept of solar warming generating spring stratification is appropriate for the Irminger Current and the central Irminger Sea. However in the East Greenland Current and the Reykjanes Ridge zones, the springtime arrival of fresh or saline water at the surface dominates re-stratification and generates the earliest and strongest spring blooms of the region. In the cool fresh centre of the Irminger Sea the relatively low chlorophyll-a throughout the year cannot be wholly explained by stratification or nutrient concentrations. Details of the annual cycle in temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a and nutrients are presented for each hydrographic zone.     

On Impact mechanics in ship collisions

The purpose of this paper is to present analytical, closed-form expressions for the energy released for crushing and the impact impulse during ship collisions. Ship–ship collisions, ship collisions with rigid walls and ship collisions with flexible offshore structures are considered. The derived mathematical models include friction at the contact point so that situation where the collision results in a sliding motion is included. Results obtained by application of the present procedure are compared with results obtained by time simulations and good agreement has been achieved. In addition, a number of illustrative examples are presented. The procedure presented in the paper is well suited for inclusion in a probabilistic calculation model for damage of ship structures due to collisions.     

Application of fuzzy theory for identifying the required availability of an autonomous localization unit in European Train Control System

According to the evolution tendency of the control decision process from a trackside to a train-borne system, various autonomous localization units for railway vehicles were developed. As recommended in railway standards, the design process of each system, here the autonomous localization units (LU), follows the V-model whose first step is to define its availability requirement in order to satisfy the global ETCS system requirements. The classical approach for assigning the subsystem availability is based on the assumption that failure parameters of other units are precisely known. This assumption is too restricted in reality due to the lack of information. In this paper, we propose a new approach that allows taking into account uncertainties in the dependability parameters of the ETCS components for identifying the upper threshold of the LU unavailability to reach ETCS availability requirements. Using fuzzy fault trees, the fuzzy unavailability of the ETCS without the autonomous LU is evaluated. Then, based on its membership function, we assess the satisfaction rate that an advanced ETCS with the autonomous LU can satisfy the ETCS availability target.     

The vertical disintegration of ship management: choice criteria for third party selection and evaluation

An assessment of the rationale for the vertical disintegration of ship management suggests that there might be compelling economic benefits for the separation of ownership from management. In this context, as a means for developing effective marketing strategies, it is important for ship managers to know the criteria used by current and prospective clients for ship manager selection and evaluation. The aim of this paper is to empirically identify the dimensions for ship manager selection and performance evaluation and their relative importance and to discuss the implications for marketing emanating from such an assessment. The methodology adopted includes the collection of secondary and primary data, both from ship managers and their clients, using interviews and a mail survey. The results indicate the prevailing importance of certain dimensions in selection (e.g. technical ability, reputation, competency) and evaluation (responsiveness, trustworthiness, technical ability), whereas it also found that price alone is not perceived to be as important in ship manager selection. It is concluded that placing emphasis on such dimensions in the formulation of a marketing strategy will contribute towards the attraction and retention of clients, whereas cost-cutting measures to allow price reduction, as well as advertising, will be ineffective over the long term.     

Lateral Vehicle Behaviour: Comparison of Subjective/Objective Assessment Using the Choquet Integral

This paper presents an original method for the aggregation of transverse behaviour indicators obtained first from a subjective assessment then from an objective one of different vehicles tested under normal working conditions. The Choquet integral is used with respect to fuzzy measures. The main advantage of this method is to take account of the existing interactions between the indicators: redundancy, complementarity, inde-pendence. When this tool is used for subjective and objective evaluations, the computation methods of the objective indicators can be validated. Moreover, the influence of the human factor in the judgment of vehicle behaviour is easier to understand.     

Postembryonic stages of Nucellicola holmanae Lamb et al., 1996 (copepoda, poecilostomatoida), an endoparasite of the dog whelk Nucella lapillus (gastropoda)

The external morphology of the first three larval stages of Nucellicola holmanae is described. These stages were cultured from eggs found with the adults in the viscera of dog whelks collected from Robin Hood's Bay, North Yorkshire. The nauplius develops within the whelk. It moults to a metanauplius which is released as a free-swimming stage. The metanauplius moults to a free copepodid stage which exhibits a combination of characters typical of the first, second and third copepodid stages of other poecilostomatoid copepods. The infective copepodid stage which locates and penetrates the host is visible through the integument of this free-swimming copepodid.     

Mathematical Models and Computer Simulation of Nitrogen Concentration Profiles in Pulse Ion Nitrided Layers

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Modelling the silica pump in the Permanently Open Ocean Zone of the Southern Ocean

A coupled 1D physical–biogeochemical model has been built to simulate the cycles of silicon and of nitrogen in the Indian sector of the Permanently Open Ocean Zone of the Southern Ocean. Based on a simplified trophic network, that includes two size classes of phytoplankton and of zooplankton, and a microbial loop, it has been calibrated by reference to surface physical, chemical and biological data sets collected at the KERFIX time-series station (50°40′S–68°25′E). The model correctly reproduces the high nutrient low chlorophyll features typical of the studied area. In a region where the spring–summer mixed layer depth is usually deeper than 60 m, the maximum of chlorophyll never exceeds 1.5 mg m⁻³, and the annual primary production is only 68 g C m⁻² year⁻¹. In the surface layer nitrate is never exhausted (range 27–23.5 mmoles m⁻³) while silicic acid shows strong seasonal variations (range 5–20 mmoles m⁻³). On an annual basis 71% of the primary production sustained by nanophytoplankton is grazed by microzooplankton. Compared to North Atlantic, siliceous microphytoplankton is mainly prevented from blooming because of an unfavourable spring–summer light-mixing regime. Silicic acid limitation (high half saturation constant for Si uptake: 8 mmoles m⁻³) also plays a major role on diatom growth. Mesozooplankton grazing pressure excerpts its influence especially in late spring. The model illustrates the efficiency of the silica pump in the Southern Ocean: up to 63% of the biogenic silica that has been synthetized in the photic layer is exported towards the deep ocean, while only 11% of the particulate organic nitrogen escapes recycling in the surface layer.