Estimating the inefficiency in the Norwegian bus industry from stochastic cost frontier models

A stochastic cost frontier function based on data from 170 of the 175 Norwegian subsidized bus companies is estimated under two alternative presumptions regarding the distribution of the inefficency among the bus operators. When the inefficiency is assumed to be half-normally distributed, the average inefficiency in the industry is estimated to be 13.7 per cent. This calculated value is nearly halved (7.2 per cent) when the exponential distribution is applied, while the ranking of the companies according to inefficiency is unchanged. By regressing the estimated inefficiency values for each company on some exogenous variables describing its ownership structure and the subsidy policy which it faces, it is seen that inefficiency of the companies which negotiate with the public authorities over the subsidy amounts is slightly higher than the inefficiency of the companies which face a subsidy policy based on cost norms. Our analysis gives, however, no significant differences in the efficiency between privately owned bus companies and publicly owned bus operators, and shows only minor economies of scale.     

Sequential optimization approach for the multi‐class user equilibrium problem in a continuous transportation system

We consider a city region with several facilities that are competing for customers of different classes. Within the city region, the road network is dense, and can be represented as a continuum. Customers are continuously distributed over space, and they choose a facility by considering both the transportation cost and market externalities. More importantly, the model takes into account the different transportation cost functions and market externalities to which different customer classes are subjected. A logit‐type distribution of demand is specified to model the decision‐making process of users' facility choice. We develop a sequential optimization approach to decompose the complex multi‐class and multi‐facility problem into a series of smaller single‐class and single‐facility sub‐problems. An efficient solution algorithm is then proposed to solve the resultant problem. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and potential applicability of the proposed methodology.     

Does Weight matter? A Statistical analysis of the SSY Capesize index

This paper examines the statistical properties of 19 dry cargo rate series, which are used in the construction of index numbers measuring dry cargo market conditions for Capesize vessels. It is shown that the series are extremely highly correlated. They are also non-stationary. The presence of cointegration is established. It is argued that this implies that rebasing the index numbers using different weights makes little difference to the information derived from the index itself, because of the high correlation between the series and the presence of cointegration. Changing the weighting structure does not alter the information derived from the index in any material way because of these properties.     

Heterogeneous traffic flow modelling for an arterial using grid based approach

A grid based modelling approach akin to cellular automata (CA) is adopted for heterogeneous traffic flow simulation. The road space is divided into a grid of equally sized cells. Moreover, each vehicle type occupies one or more cell as per its size unlike CA traffic flow model where each vehicle is represented by a single cell. Model needs inputs such as vehicle size, its maximum speed, acceleration, deceleration, probability constants, and arrival pattern. The position and speed of the vehicles are assumed to be discrete. The speed of each vehicle changes according to its interactions with other vehicles, following some stochastic rules depending on the circumstances. The model is calibrated and validated using real data and VISSIM. The results indicate that grid based model can reasonably well simulate complex heterogeneous traffic as well as offers higher computational efficiency needed for real time application.     

Robust control of traffic networks under uncertain conditions

Uncertainty of traffic network operations has been a subject of lively debate in the last decade. However, little effort has been put in developing control frameworks that are not only aimed at improving the average performance of the system, but also at improving the system robustness and reliability. In fact, it can be argued that most of the current control approaches are only aimed at improving the efficiency, which can even be counterproductive from a robustness point of view. The main contributions of this article is the proposition of a new control framework based on the notion of controlled Markov processes, which explicitly takes into account the uncertainty in predicted traffic conditions and system performance. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional optimal control approaches, the objective function can include general statistic of the random system performance, such as the mean, standard deviation or 95‐percentile. The contribution aims to make clear how different performance function specifications yield different control strategies. This is shown for a relatively simple case study.     

Estimates of Southern Ocean primary production—constraints from predator carbon demand and nutrient drawdown

In view of the wide range of estimates for the total primary production for the Southern Ocean south of the Subantarctic Front—current estimates range from 1.2 to 3.5 Gtonne C year⁻¹—we have examined two indirect methods for assessing primary production. First, we have estimated the primary production needed to sustain the carbon requirements of the endotherm top predators in the ecosystem. Estimation of the carbon requirements for crabeater seals of about 7 Mtonne C year⁻¹ is extrapolated to a value for all endotherm predators of 15–30 Mtonne C year⁻¹. Current data indicate that 70–80% of the diet of this suite of predators is zooplankton (predominantly the euphausiid krill), making for highly efficient transfer from primary production to top predators. Our best estimate of Southern Ocean primary production by this method is of the order of 1.7 Gtonne C year⁻¹, or an averaged areal primary production of about 30–40 g C m⁻² year⁻¹. Our second approach is to estimate primary production from the drawdown of inorganic nutrients, based on the limited suite of studies from which an annual nutrient deficit can be calculated. Again, this indicates annual primary production of the order of 1.5 Gtonne. Although both methods have inherent uncertainties, taken together they provide a relatively robust constraint on annual primary production. For both methods to underestimate primary production by the 1–1.5 Gtonne C implied by the higher current estimates, carbon export from the Southern Ocean pelagic ecosystem would need to be much higher than is normally found in other oceans.     

A review of the European Union shipping policy

It is the aim of the European Union to develop a transport policy that supports its economic and sustainable growth and where the concept of sustainable mobility is a driver in the development of such policy. To achieve this goal, the European Union (EU) is promoting the shift of goods to unused existing capacity in rail and sea modes. As such, it is the objective of this paper to carry out a review of the European shipping policy at a time when the EU Member-States are suffering from high levels of congestion, noise and pollution that not only affect the environment but also the quality of life of all citizens. This paper considers the development of EU shipping policy in three stages.     

Late-Quaternary changes in productivity of the Southern Ocean

Paleoceanographic records based on new proxies of export production have been constructed for the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. A radionuclide-ratio proxy of particle flux (¹⁰Be/²³⁰Th) and the accumulation rate of authigenic uranium, which responds to the flux of organic carbon to the sea bed, both indicate a dramatic increase, compared to the present, in the export production of the Subantarctic zone (approximately the region between the present-day positions of the Subtropical Convergence and the Antarctic Polar Front) during glacial periods. If the South Atlantic is representative of the entire Southern Ocean, then export production in the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum was substantially greater than at present. Previous studies, focusing on the burial of biogenic opal, failed to recognize the glacial increase in export production of the Southern Ocean because of a strong non-linearity between accumulation rates of opal and of organic carbon.     

Community structure of mesopelagic copepods (>500 μm) in the Ligurian Sea (Western Mediterranean)

The distribution of mesopelagic copepods between 250 and 1000 m depth was studied along a transect off the coast of Villefranche-sur-Mer in June 1991 by means of a BIONESS multiple-net sampler. Among the most abundant species at all stations were Pleuromamma gracilis, Paraeuchaeta acuta and overwintering Calanus helgolandicus CV copepodites, each species inhabiting different depth layers with maximum abundances in the 250–350 m, 450–550 m and the 700–850 m layer, respectively. Cluster analysis of the vertical distribution of all species caught revealed three distinct strata (‘TOP', ‘INTERMEDIATE', ‘BOTTOM') consisting of characteristic species that occurred in the same stratum at all stations. Differences in total abundances of the species assemblage occupying each layer are discussed with regard to predation pressure by mesopelagic macroplanktonic crustaceans and fish. We show that each stratum is characterized by distinct trophic interactions and life strategies, which play an important role in the structuring of mesopelagic zooplankton communities.     

Using risk analysis to determine the potential range of lifecycle costs for urban transit systems

Intense competition for limited public funding for urban transport projects can often result in proponents of individual schemes presenting minimized costs and maximized benefits to funding bodies to try to ensure that their scheme is chosen above others for funding. This presents public bodies with a problem, especially in an era when they are keen to attract private contributions for transit schemes. Risk modelling techniques can be of great assistance in ascertaining ranges of costs and benefits for individual submissions and deciding upon which projects should receive priority-not only those with greatest cost-benefit indices, but also those whose indices have low levels of associated risk to allay the fears of the traditionally risk averse private sector.