Specifications for a new long-range urban transportation planning process

This paper asserts the continuing need for a long-range component to urban transportation planning, citing particularly the relationships between short- and long-range planning and the dangers of a single-minded concentration on short-range planning. However, the nature of the long-range planning procedure that is required is substantively different from that of most extant approaches. Some of the specific requirements and capabilities of a new procedure are described, and existing procedures are compared against these.In the latter part of the paper, some of the elements of a new long-range planning procedure are characterized. It is suggested that the procedure be built around a scenario approach to confronting and bounding future uncertainty. Second, the need to incor porate financial forecasting in the process is laid out and related to the scenario concept. Third, the need for travel- and impact-forecasting procedures is recognized and a set of input, output and operating requirements for such procedures are specified. It is suggested that improved sketch-planning tools may fit the requirements to a large extent. It is also suggested that some procedures or models in the process should be synthetic models, not needing calibration for each new application. Finally, a number of requirements are specified for the display and evaluation of planning proposals from this procedure. A major emphasis is placed here on transparency of the process and responsiveness to direct intervention by the decision-maker.     

The regulatory cycle stalled? An assessment of current institutional obstacles to regulatory reform in the provision of road-based public transport in Cape Town, South Africa

Wide-ranging and ambitious proposals for the comprehensive transformation of public transport systems in major South African cities, including Cape Town, have now been in play for a decade or more since the country’s post-apartheid transition. To date, progress in implementing such proposals has been, at best, much delayed and, in Cape Town, appears to have stalled, and may now be significantly compromised. This paper draws on aspects of the concept of regulatory cycles in the bus transport sector to explore some of the key factors which have given rise to this situation, focusing primarily on obstacles embedded in the present institutional framework which governs the provision of road-based public transport in the city. It specifically identifies difficulties in establishing an appropriately mandated and resourced agency at the local level to drive forward the transformation project and the sustained opposition of existing, largely ‘self-regulated’ minibus-taxi operators as key factors which have obstructed the introduction of the proposed regime of ‘regulated competition’. A tentative conclusion is offered to the effect that perhaps a partial or ‘hybrid’ transformation of the public transport system may be the best - and, indeed, possibly the most appropriate - outcome of the transformation process that can be anticipated under the present and foreseeable future circumstances prevailing in the city.     

Application of probability theory to marne project appraisal

The importance of specifying and quantifying the project risks in the investment decision process cannot be overemphasized. Even more so in the context of marine project appraisal, since the shiping markets are characterized by extreme volatility and high cyclicality. The use of probability theory in investment decisions is reviewed and applications are derived for marine projects. The paper focuses on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to determine the mean and variance of the input variables. Within the Monte Carlo framework three alternative methods are used for the construction of probability distributions; the scaled halves of a normal distribution, two unscaled parts of a normal distribution and finally use of altenative distributions, such as beta, gamma and chi-square. An alternative methodology is also drawn from the literature, namely the Pearson-Turkey three point approximation, to contrast with the Monte Carlo method.     

Safer ships, cleaner seas

P&I clubs, as shipowners' organizations providing liability insurance for the same shipowners have a particularly vital role to play in exerting peer group pressure and raising standards of safety. Solutions are, however, never as simple as one might wish; this article explores the tensions and constraints within which P&I clubs operate, analyses where they are best equipped to support the Donaldson initiative and points out that there is an inherent conflict between liberal modern society and the desire for discipline on the high seas.     

Shipping and investment incentives: a trilogy

Governments may often try to stimulate investment in their own country by altering the climate in which such decisions are made. They achieve this by means of fiscal and financial regimes which may offer investment incentives for particular forms of investment and/or favourable financial arrangements to facilitate the purchase of particular assets. This paper discusses the form which such incentives might take and considers the literature to examine how such incentives have been perceived by businessmen whose actions they are intended to influence.     

Low-fi simulation of bridge team communication

The paper compares the pedagogical advantages of two simulation types used for training verbal maritime communication. It tests the hypothesis that “low-fi” simulation using online web conference software, specifically ‘chat’ or messaging, is a valid complementary tool for the instruction of Maritime English and full-mission simulation. Based on a series of exercises involving multi-national and multi-lingual students, various linguistic patterns are determined and compared to audio recordings of full-mission simulation. Probability of superiority effect sizes is computed to quantify the observed effects. The findings corroborate the proximity of language patterns found in low-fi and full-mission simulation. Pedagogical implications are discussed, and future research possibilities are outlined.     

一港飞架东西

自巴拿马运河管理局两年前宣布修建第三组船闸以来,许多行业观察家都怀疑巴拿马运河管理局是否过于野心勃勃。为了支付修建第三组船闸的费用,巴拿马运河计划增加通行费。此举是否会增加其它航线的竞争力？巴拿马运河管理局如何将项目成本控制在52．5亿美元以下,同时又保证项目如期竣工？     

The docks after deregulation

During the twelve months following the abolition of the National Dock Labour Scheme in July 1989 Britain's ports have witnessed a revolutionary period of change, with massive job losses, new working practices, and reports of major productivity improvements. The course of events during the 1989 national dock strike itself partly account for this transformation, but the deregulation of employment and the subsequent intensification of competition in the industry have been the key factors. To date, however, there is very little concrete evidence of a transformation in the performance of Britain's ports.     

Japanese highway planning: A western interpretation

At the 1952 Census, less than 6 percent of national highways and prefectural roads in Japan were paved, and mechanically-propelled vehicles accounted for only 6 percent of total vehicle registrations; by 1981, 2792 km of expressway were in service (an addi tional 2623 km were under construction or being surveyed) and her industry was dominating world markets for motor vehicles. This paper, drawing on material translated from the Japanese language, examines the history of transport planning and engineering ideas that inspired the modernisation of the highway system in the period after the Pacific War. Three distinct phases are identified: (a) a politically and economically dependent Japanese state which borrowed methods from the U.S.A. in formulating 5-year national road programmes; (b) a more independent state, absorbing western techniques and refining them in 23 urban transportation studies; and (c) a donor state, exporting these ideas to Southeast Asian cities as one instrument of Japanese foreign policy. The triad of international antecedents, domestic context and content, and foreign application is a suitable framework when interpreting the intricate relationships between transport and society.