A method to assess demand growth vulnerability of travel times on road network links

Many national governments around the world have turned their recent focus to monitoring the actual reliability of their road networks. In parallel there have been major research efforts aimed at developing modelling approaches for predicting the potential vulnerability of such networks, and in forecasting the future impact of any mitigating actions. In practice—whether monitoring the past or planning for the future—a confounding factor may arise, namely the potential for systematic growth in demand over a period of years. As this growth occurs the networks will operate in a regime closer to capacity, in which they are more sensitive to any variation in flow or capacity. Such growth will be partially an explanation for trends observed in historic data, and it will have an impact in forecasting too, where we can interpret this as implying that the networks are vulnerable to demand growth. This fact is not reflected in current vulnerability methods which focus almost exclusively on vulnerability to loss in capacity. In the paper, a simple, moment-based method is developed to separate out this effect of demand growth on the distribution of travel times on a network link, the aim being to develop a simple, tractable, analytic method for medium-term planning applications. Thus the impact of demand growth on the mean, variance and skewness in travel times may be isolated. For given critical changes in these summary measures, we are thus able to identify what (location-specific) level of demand growth would cause these critical values to be exceeded, and this level is referred to as Demand Growth Reliability Vulnerability (DGRV). Computing the DGRV index for each link of a network also allows the planner to identify the most vulnerable locations, in terms of their ability to accommodate growth in demand. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the principles and computation of the DGRV measure.     

Aquaculture Parks in the Coastal Zone: A Review of Legal and Policy Issues in the Gulf of Mexico State Waters

The goal of this study is to apply industrial park concepts to the development of aquaculture parks in public waters. The objectives are to identify the permitting process, relevant agencies, and legislation needed to facilitate development. Gulf of Mexico states are surveyed: private parks exist in Florida, but no public parks have developed yet; plans for parks exist in Mississippi, but lack of funding prevents development; no regulations prohibit parks in Alabama, although none currently exist; Texas regulations hinder development of parks; and an experimental park has been proposed in Louisiana, but regulatory gaps have delayed permit issuance.     

Commuting costs and the residential mobility of job changers

In traffic and transport research, attention is given to the relevance of location patterns of activities to moving behaviour, the inverse causality being mostly left out of account. This paper considers what influence (changes in) travel costs have on moving behaviour and residential choice. The analysis has been carried out for employed people who change jobs. The residential choice has been split into a marginal probability of moving and a conditional destination choice. Both choices appear to be influenced significantly by travel‐cost variables.     

Book review

AUTOMATED‐TRANSIT GUIDEWAYS: ANALYSIS AND DESIGN, by Clarence W. de Silva and David N. Wormley. 276 pp. (£33.00)     

Coastal energy impact mitigation in the Gulf: The past reviewed and alternatives for the future

Abstract

With the future of the Coastal Energy Impact Program (CEIP) in question and with oil and gas leasing and drilling activities in the Gulf of Mexico expected to increase, the question arises as to how energy impacts are to be mitigated. It is concluded that CEIP has helped to mitigate coastal energy impacts. If it is left unfunded, an alternative would be to provide Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) royalties to states to be used for impact prevention and mitigation.     

On-board aging estimation using half-cell voltage curves for LiFePO<Subscript>4</Subscript> cathode-based lithium-ion batteries for EV applications

The aim of this work is the design of an algorithm for on-board determination of the actual capacity of a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode-based lithium-ion battery for electric vehicle applications. The presented approach is based on the detection of the predominant aging mechanisms (in terms of loss of lithium and loss of active material in both electrodes) by determining the single electrode voltage curves. The information related to the characteristic length and position of the voltage plateaus, which can be gathered during battery operation, can be used to obtain the actual aging state of the cells. The length of the plateaus depends on the respective position that the voltage curves of the single electrodes have in relation to each other. Relating the change of the plateau characteristics to the possible aging mechanisms allows the determination of the actual battery aging state in terms of total cell capacity. The work presents a possible implementation of an algorithm for capacity determination based on the described methodology. The algorithm is validated with various differently aged LFP cells. Furthermore, the work discusses the ability of the method to detect the actual battery capacity if the characteristics of only part of the quasi-OCV (open circuit voltage) curve are detected. Achieved accuracy and existing limitations are described and discussed in detail.     

Analysis of automotive disc brake squeal considering damping and design modifications for pads and a disc

The squeal noise occurring from the disc brakes of passenger cars has been analyzed by using the complex eigenvalue method numerically. The contact between a disc and two pads was analytically modeled as many linear springs and dampers in an effort to develop the improved equation of motion derived on the basis of Lagrange’s equation and the assumed mode method. The finite element modal analysis results for disc brake components constitute an eigenvalue matrix in the analytical equation of motion. The complex eigenvalue analyses based on the equations of motion are able to examine the dynamic instability of a brake system, which is an onset of squeal, by considering the disc rotational effect. Numerical analyses showed that the modes unstable in an undamped analysis became stable in a damped case, which illustrates the important effect of damping on the squeal instability in a brake squeal simulation. Then several modified brake models were suggested and investigated how effectively they suppressed the occurrence of squeal noise. The brake parts such as a pad chamfer and a disc vane were modified and the influence of pad chamfer and vane shapes on squeal occurrence was proved to be significant. The numerical results showed that proper structural modification of a disc brake system can suppress the brake squeal to some extent.     

Developing a comprehensive programme for improving shipboard energy efficiency

This article identifies a set of fuel saving strategies designed to meet the needs of vessel owners and operators, and describes how the strategies can be combined into a comprehensive programme. The strategies are developed from over sixty potential fuel saving measures grouped on the basis of commonness of purpose and interdependency. These criteria reflect the finding that implementing certain strategies is a prerequisite to the success of other strategies, and the success of some strategies generates a need to implement other strategies. Operational strategies identified include: developing crew motivation for active participation in energy efficiency improvement programmes; altering ship speeds; reducing auxiliary load on main propulsion plant; improved matching of ship capacities and cargo volume; reducing miles traveled; and maximizing use of electronic navigation and communications aids. Physical plant modification strategies identified include: optimizing for reduced ship speeds; fuel switching, blending and modifying; hydrodynamic improvements to the hull and propeller; and improving thrust.