Further evidence on the temporal stability of disaggregate travel demand models

Current evidence on the transferability of disaggregate travel demand models is inconclusive. Adding to this body of research, the present analysis focuses upon the temporal characteristics of work trip behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area. Using before and after data sets associated with the BART Impact Travel Study, multinomial logit models of work trip modal choice are estimated. The results indicate that the general form and the coefficient estimates of a pre BART model are transferable in time. Moreover, when updated to reflect BART's presence, the model's predictive success and its implied elasticity measures are generally accurate, relative to those implied by reestimating the entire model on post BART data. Finally, as economic theory would predict, elasticity measures of the service related variables were found to increase over time.     

Junction interactions and monotonicity in traffic assignment

We consider the traffic equilibrium problem when the travel demand is inelastic and stationary in time. Junction interactions, which abound in urban road networks, are permitted. We prove that the set of equilibria (solutions to the assignment problem) is convex when certain monotonicity and continuity conditions are statisfied at each junction.     

The dynamics of traffic assignment and traffic control: A theoretical study

The paper considers traffic assignment, with traffic controls, in an increasingly dynamic way. First, a natural way of introducing the responsive policy, P_o, into steady state traffic assignment is presented. Then it is shown that natural stability results follow within a dynamical version of this static equilibrium model (still with a constant demand). We are able to obtain similar stability results when queues are explicitly allowed for, provided demand is constant. Finally we allow demand to vary with time; we consider the dynamic assignment problem with signal-settings now fixed. Here we assume that vehicles are very short and that deterministic queueing theory applies, and show that the time-dependent queueing delay at the bottleneck at the end of a link is a monotone function of the time-dependent input profile to the bottleneck. We have been unable to obtain results when dynamic demand and responsive signal control are combined.     

Local Level Fisheries Management in Diani-Chale,Kenya: Current Status and Future Directions

The current regime of fisheries management and the prospects for attaining a more locally oriented, collaborative system of fisheries management in Diani-Chale, Kenya are examined. At present fisheries management in Diani-Chale is characterized by diminished government capacity for regulation, weakened local institutions, and little ability to exert control over the use of fisheries. Local level management requires the development and use of local institutions that can govern the use of fishery resources. The fish landing sites used by fishers and their associated fishing grounds were identified to be at the appropriate level for resolving fishery management issues. A more formal role for these entities, the clarification of fishing ground tenure and access rights, and support for the development and enforcement of local fishing rules can further local management. The socioeconomic condition of fishers, their fear of losing landing sites, and the continued perception of the imposition of a marine reserve pose barriers to initiatives seeking to further local level management.     

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures

ABSTRACT

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures links costs to system performance by combining a power-law function with time-dependent queueing analysis. Additionally, the model incorporates the marginal cost of capacity, including the effects of economies of scale. This allows the calculation of the marginal cost price under a dynamic framework. The model accounts for nonlinear behaviour of port demand, which is sensitive to price and service levels. The effects over time of cost and service levels on the port’s operational performance are quantified. The proposed model allows determining the optimal timing for capacity investment. The model is a starting point for the application of marginal cost pricing to ports. However, for practical application of such pricing method it is necessary to apply a system’s approach, as productivity and costs must be assessed at the terminal’s component level. This should allow the derivation of a marginal cost function at the terminal’s component level.     

A Training Framework for Understanding Conflict in the Coastal Zone

The coastal zone is attractive for human settlement because it tends to be resource rich, providing a good location to generate incomes and livelihoods. Equally, however, it is a complex and powerful natural environment, which means that the coastal zone often becomes a focus of conflict with multiple users competing for limited space and resources. Understanding the causes of, and determining solutions to, the ensuing problems requires inputs from a range of analyses across sectors and disciplines. However, different disciplinary and sectoral approaches frequently use different investigative methods, language, and means of presenting results. This article presents a framework that has been developed in collaboration with Indian institutions over the past three years in an effort to address some of these fundamental problems of analysis and translation into policy action. Key components addressed by the framework are strengthening the capacity to practice, knowing how to proceed and how to find out what needs to be known using experience-based problem solving.     

Initiatives in Philippine Coastal Management: An Overview

Standardized and free-format questionnaires on the state of coastal management were fielded to coastal management practitioners during three workshops and a national feedback and recommendation workshop. The most commonly cited responses were identified for each of 13 political regions and overall trends were identified. Management frameworks frequently included research, community organizing, education, livelihood, resource enhancement, resource protection, regulation, and networking components. Gender issues, documentation, and infrastructure investment were rare. The most commonly perceived environmental problem was illegal/ destructive fishing and its associated overfishing and low fish catch. The most commonly cited socioeconomic problem was the inadequacy of law enforcement. The best monitored variables were usually those related to environmental management: status and change of habitats, resources, and degree of enforcement/patrolling activities. The most common nonregulatory enhancement, aside from environmental education (which is the most popular), was mangrove reforestation. In terms of regulations, the majority of the respondents have reportedly formulated an integrated coastal management plan. In practice, regulating destructive and illegal fishing practices and then the establishment of fish sanctuaries are the next most implemented. The most popular quality-of-life enhancement strategies focused on the improvement of sustainable fishing as a livelihood and on a variety of supplementary livelihoods. The most usual institutional intervention being implemented was the setting up of local community people's organizations. Major factors which may influence success or failure of coastal management and recommendations on research, community organizing and livelihood, legislation and policies, implementation and coordination, and networking are also summarized.     

Nonlinear three-dimensional wagon-track model for the investigation of rail corrugation initiation on curved track

A nonlinear wagon-track model on curved track has been developed to characterize rail corrugation formation due to self-excitation of the wheel-rail stick-slip process. In this model, wagon movements were described using up to 78 degrees of freedom (DOFs) to model a three-piece freight bogie. Innovatively, the wheelset movements are described using nine DOFs, including torsional and bending modes about the longitudinal and vertical directions. The track modelling is considered as a one-layer structure (two rail beams on discrete spring and damper elements). The wheel sliding after creepage saturation is considered in the wheel-rail interface modelling. Simulation of a case study shows that the frequencies of the wheel stick-slip process are composed of the basic frequency, which might come from the combined effect of sleeper-passing frequency and one-third of the combined torsional and bending frequency of the wheelset, and the double and triple basic frequencies, which form the wavelengths of rail corrugation at different situations.     

Short-term Hourly Traffic Forecasts using Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census

The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station. Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region.