Developing green fleet management strategies: Repair/retrofit/replacement decisions under environmental regulation

The considerable cost of maintaining large fleets has generated interest in cost minimization strategies. With many related decisions, numerous constraints, and significant sources of uncertainty (e.g. vehicle breakdowns), fleet managers face complex dynamic optimization problems. Existing methodologies frequently make simplifying assumptions or fail to converge quickly for large problems. This paper presents an approximate dynamic programming approach for making vehicle purchase, resale, and retrofit decisions in a fleet setting with stochastic vehicle breakdowns. Value iteration is informed by dual variables from linear programs, as well as other bounds on vehicle shadow prices. Sample problems are based on a government fleet seeking to comply with emissions regulation. The model predicts the expected cost of compliance, the rules the fleet manager will use in deciding how to comply, and the regulation’s impact on the value of vehicles in the fleet. Stricter regulation lowers the value of some vehicle categories while raising the value of others. Such insights can help guide regulators, as well as the fleet managers they oversee. The methodologies developed could be applied more broadly to general multi-asset replacement problems, many of which have similar structures.     

基于特征模型的船舶运动数学模型

为了获得形式简洁而精度较高的船舶运动数学模型,将航空航天领域的特征模型移植到航海领域.利用部分实船试验数据辨识出特征模型的参数,通过船舶Z形试验验证了在航海领域使用特征模型的可行性.该精度稍高于目前使用的Nomoto模型,且保留了其简洁的形式.     

FFA回归

FFA,不是美丽的罂粟花,一次次的滑铁卢,错在我们迷失了航向。2008年,国内曾集中出现一系列衍生品亏损事件,中国远洋的FFA亏损当年在航运圈引起震动,其实当时除了中国远洋外,还有例如东航、国航燃油套保亏损,中信泰富澳元套保巨亏,深南电原油套保事件等,此后传出政府限制国有航运公司参与运费衍生品交易的消息。国内谈及衍生品交易就很自然和亏损联系在一起,似乎国内企业都在衍生品交易方面吃了大亏,其实不然,尽管一些大型企业在衍生品交易方面屡屡遭遇滑铁卢,但是依然有很多企业依靠良好的风险控制取得了不错的成绩。     

Impacts of biodiesel blending on freight emissions in the Midwestern United States

We use a combination of petroleum–diesel models, datasets and tools along with biodiesel-specific corrections to create a roadway-level emissions inventory capable of evaluating spatial, temporal and scale aspects of fuel distribution options for the Midwestern US. Specifically, we compare the emissions of a year-round “low-blend” biodiesel implementation scenario, already under consideration in a variety of states, with a more strategic summer-only, interstate-only “high-blend” scenario. Our results indicate that spatial and seasonal distribution decisions do affect the overall emissions impacts of any biodiesel deployment, even those at low-blend levels. However, we also finds that changes in emissions due to biodiesel are considerably smaller than those anticipated from improvements to engine and control technologies.     

Building Philippine Local Government Capacity for Coastal Resource Management

The responsibility for managing coral reefs and other coastal resources was largely devolved to coastal municipalities and cities in the Philippines in 1991 with the passage of the Local Government Code. Devolution of powers and responsibilities to local government has paved the way for mainstreaming coastal resource management at the local level. However, the capacity to carry out this mandate has only recently begun to mature as municipalities and cities gain an increased awareness of the importance of coastal resources to communities and economic development. Approaches and strategies to increase local government capacity for coastal resource management are described based on the experiences of the Coastal Resource Management Project of the United States Agency for International Development. Qualitative and quantitative data are used to illustrate the possible impact of these capacity building efforts and to describe the current capacity of local government to undertake coastal resource management. After five years of project implementation, coastal municipalities have increased technical capacity, have allotted financial resources, and have achieved key performance benchmarks in the delivery of coastal resource management as a basic service.     

Exploring the relationship between perceived acceptability and referendum voting support for alternative road pricing schemes

A dominant theme in the debate on road pricing (RP) reform is securing buy in from all key stakeholders as a pre-condition for gaining support from politicians. This paper explores the key influences and the extent to which particular RP schemes are acceptable to the community at large, and how this translates into support if a scheme were subject to a vote in a referendum. Using data collected in Sydney in 2012 from a sample of car users, we estimate a recursive simultaneous bivariate probit model that recognises the endogeneity effect of scheme acceptability on voting plans. We find that there is a very strong link between voting intentions and scheme acceptability, and provide a series of direct elasticity estimates of the influence that the cost elements of RP reform schemes have on the joint probability of accepting and voting for a scheme.     

A Training Framework for Understanding Conflict in the Coastal Zone

The coastal zone is attractive for human settlement because it tends to be resource rich, providing a good location to generate incomes and livelihoods. Equally, however, it is a complex and powerful natural environment, which means that the coastal zone often becomes a focus of conflict with multiple users competing for limited space and resources. Understanding the causes of, and determining solutions to, the ensuing problems requires inputs from a range of analyses across sectors and disciplines. However, different disciplinary and sectoral approaches frequently use different investigative methods, language, and means of presenting results. This article presents a framework that has been developed in collaboration with Indian institutions over the past three years in an effort to address some of these fundamental problems of analysis and translation into policy action. Key components addressed by the framework are strengthening the capacity to practice, knowing how to proceed and how to find out what needs to be known using experience-based problem solving.