On the practicality of the UNCTAD 40–40–20 Code for liner conferences

The potential effects of a rigid adherence to the UNCTAD Code are analysed for 26 developing countries. A brief commentary is given on the advantages of a more liberal application of the Code, including reciprocal sharing of liner tonnages by regions of developing countries with regions of developed market-economy countries.     

A review of the European Union shipping policy

It is the aim of the European Union to develop a transport policy that supports its economic and sustainable growth and where the concept of sustainable mobility is a driver in the development of such policy. To achieve this goal, the European Union (EU) is promoting the shift of goods to unused existing capacity in rail and sea modes. As such, it is the objective of this paper to carry out a review of the European shipping policy at a time when the EU Member-States are suffering from high levels of congestion, noise and pollution that not only affect the environment but also the quality of life of all citizens. This paper considers the development of EU shipping policy in three stages.     

Counting people in the crowd using social media images for crowd management in city events

Transportation - City events are getting popular and are attracting a large number of people. This increase needs for methods and tools to provide stakeholders with crowd size information for crowd...     

Ship underwater noise assessment by the acoustic analogy. Part I: nonlinear analysis of a marine propeller in a uniform flow

The aim of this work is to analyze the hydroacoustic behavior of a marine propeller through the acoustic analogy and to test the versatility and effectiveness of this approach in dealing with the many (and relatively unexplored) issues concerning the underwater noise and its numerical prediction. In particular, a propeller in a noncavitating open water condition is examined here by coupling a Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes hydrodynamic solver to a hydroacoustic code implementing different resolution forms of the Ffowcs Williams–Hawkings (FWH) equation. The numerical results suggest that unlike the analogous aeronautical problem, where the role played by the nonlinear quadrupole sources is known to be relevant just at high transonic or supersonic regime, the pressure field underwater seems to be significantly affected by the flow nonlinearities, while the contribution from the linear terms (the thickness and loading noise components) is dominant only in a spatially very limited region. Then, contrary to popular belief and regardless of the low blade rotational speed, a reliable hydroacoustic analysis of a marine propeller cannot put aside the contribution of the nonlinear noise sources represented by the turbulence and vorticity three-dimensional fields and requires the computation of the FWH quadrupole source terms.     

The growth and patterns of international trade

Over the last 40 years, there has been an unprecedented growth in trade amongst countries, and the growth in trade shows no sign of slowing down. The increases in trade have put tremendous pressure on the maritime and port industries, and these industries have responded with innovations, investment, and greater productivity. International trade and maritime trade are synonyms, and an understanding of the determinants of international trade is central to understanding maritime trade. In this paper, we provide a review of the international trade literature with a focus on the determinants of trade and the evolution of trade modeling. We then present a broad overview of the extent and growth of trade in the context of primary determinants. The basic results are: (1) Trade is growing at a phenomenal rate; (2) Trade is dominated by relatively few countries who tend to remain dominant; (3) While trade of all products is growing, there are large differences in the growth rates, but yet, there is stability in the relative sizes of product markets; and (4) Over the last 40 years, trade has changed from major flows between the US and Europe to major flows between Asia and the US.     

Cluster-based correlation of severe driving events with time and location

In this article, a systematic strategy is proposed to identify severe driving events occurrence correlation with time and location. The proposed approach, which is constructed based on batch clustering and real-time clustering techniques, incorporates historical and real-time data to predict the time and location of severe driving events. Batch clustering is implemented with the combination of subtractive clustering and fuzzy c-means clustering to generate clusters representing the initial correlation patterns. Real-time clustering is then developed to create and update real-time correlation patterns on the foundation of the batch clustering using the evolving Gustafson–Kessel like (eGKL) algorithm. In both clustering processes, the correlation of the events within time domain is identified first, and then two different levels of accurate correlations are conducted for the location domain. Real-time data of operating vehicles each equipped with a data acquisition and wireless communication platform are used to validate the proposed strategy. Batch clustering results reveal the severe braking events distribution and concentration at daytime and nighttime. Real-time clustering provides and updates the variation of the correlations/intercorrelation of different regions. Drivers can be notified of the potential severe driving locations through maps showing the driving routes. Through the variation of the correlations, drivers can recognize the events occurrence at different times and locations. The generated time series can be potentially used to develop spatial-time models for regions to model and forecast the events occurrence.     

The Development of a Visualization Methodology for Integrated Coastal Management

Coastal management information is frequently communicated to stakeholders and the public through complicated management documents and engineering plans. With the recognition that public involvement in coastal decision-making processes should be widened have come calls to develop new techniques to communicate complicated coastal information. Using Virtual Reality Geographical Information Systems and visualization packages, such information may be presented using formats more suitable for public consultation and information dissemination exercises than those currently employed. Using a site on the north Norfolk coast of England, an integrated Geographical Information Systems based methodology is presented that allows the visualization of proposed coastal management interventions. Visualizations have been produced that can be published in traditional paper-based management documents, or electronically. The different visualizations are compared and the technical issues surrounding their use discussed. It is argued that the methodology has clear advantages over traditional communication methods, although further research is necessary to determine how it may be practically employed by coastal managers.     

Modelling and simulation of transportation system effectiveness to reduce traffic congestion: a system dynamics framework

ABSTRACT

This paper is designed to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of transportation systems and reduce traffic congestion through the use of simulation models and scenario development. A system dynamics framework is used to test and evaluate the alternatives of future strategies for the city of Surabaya, Indonesia. Some factors affecting the effectiveness of transport systems include operational effectiveness and service effectiveness, as well as uncertainty. To improve the effectiveness of transportation systems, several strategies can be implemented, such as subsidizing public transportation, increasing the cost of private vehicle parking fees, raising taxes on private vehicles, and reducing delays in public transportation through scenario development. Scenario results show that, by pursuing these strategies, effectiveness could be improved by 80% as the impact of the increase in operational and service effectiveness, helping to mitigate traffic congestion. Congestion could be reduced to 70% (on average) due to the decrease in daily traffic.     

Forecasting automobile petrol demand in Australia: An evaluation of empirical models

Transport fuel consumption and its determinants have received a great deal of attention since the early 1970s. In the literature, different types of modelling methods have been used to estimate petrol demand, each having methodological strengths and weaknesses. This paper is motivated by an ongoing need to review the effectiveness of empirical fuel demand forecasting models, with a focus on theoretical as well as practical considerations in the model-building processes of different model forms. We consider a linear trend model, a quadratic trend model, an exponential trend model, a single exponential smoothing model, Holt’s linear model, Holt–Winters’ model, a partial adjustment model (PAM), and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. More importantly, the study identifies the difference between forecasts and actual observations of petrol demand in order to identify forecasting accuracy. Given the identified best-forecasting model, Australia’s automobile petrol demand from 2007 through to 2020 is presented under the “business-as-usual” scenario.