An artificial neural network approach for evaluating transportation network improvements

As demand increases over time, new links or improvements in existing links may be considered for increasing a network's capacity. The selection and timing of improvement projects is an especially challenging problem when the benefits or costs of those projects are interdependent. Most existing models neglect the interdependence of projects and their impacts during intermediate periods of a planning horizon, thus failing to identify the optimal improvement program. A multiperiod network design model is proposed to select the best combination of improvement projects and schedules. This model requires the evaluation of numerous network improvement alternatives in several time periods. To facilitate efficient solution methods for the network design model, an artificial neural network approach is proposed for estimating total travel times corresponding to various project selection and scheduling decisions. Efficient procedures for preparing an appropriate training data set and an artificial neural network for this application are discussed. The Calvert County highway system in southern Maryland is used to illustrate these procedures and the resulting performance.     

Estimating the demand for urban bus travel

The disadvantages of conventional transportation study models, in particular their large data requirements and their weaknesses in dealing with changes in trip generation rates have led to a need for a simple model that can quickly and at low cost examine alternative public transport strategies.This paper investigates simple economic models of bus demand, examines alternative variables that can be used and discusses some alternative model forms. It demonstrates the results of a model using data from twelve urban bus operators in Britain and compares the results with those from other types of study. The model utilises fare and service quality elasticities to explain the decline in passengers on urban bus services, and derives an average elasticity with respect to fare changes of –0.31 and with respect to service quality changes of +0.62. It is estimated that fare rises accounted for 13% of the 43% decline in passengers over the last fifteen years, vehicle mileage reductions for 14.3% and that only 15.7% was due to such factors as rising car ownership which are often given as the cause of declining bus patronage.The results, by showing that passengers are far more sensitive to changes in service than they are to fare rises, are a useful guide to the broader public transport policy issues, and the paper concludes that the model does provide a useful method of forecasting public transport demand at a strategic level. Further work is needed, however, to establish more accurate forecasts for different types of passenger and studies are now being undertaken to establish these and to construct an operational forecasting model that can be applied with only limited data requirements     

An Approach to Determining Worst Case Platoon Behavior

This paper presents a method with which one can evaluate alternative platooning control strategies with respect to worst case behavior. The motivation is to provide platoon control designers with an objective means of evaluating robustness in the face of system uncertainties. The approach can be viewed as an extension of optimal control procedures and is applicable to complex, nonlinear systems. An arbitrary number of uncertain parameters, unmodeled components and inputs are allowed. The end result is a lower bound for the worst case platoon performance.     

Welfare maximization for bus transit systems with timed transfers and financial constraints

Conventional and flexible bus services may be combined to better serve regions with a wide range of characteristics. If demand densities and resulting service frequencies are low, the coordination of bus arrivals at transfer stations may significantly reduce passenger transfer times. A method is proposed for integrating, coordinating, and optimizing bus services while considering many‐to‐many travel patterns, demand elasticity, financial constraints, and appropriate service type for various regions. The objective is to maximize welfare, that is, the sum of producer and consumer surplus. The problem is solved with a hybrid optimization method, in which a genetic algorithm with bounded integer variables is selected for solving one of the subproblems. The service types, fares, headways, and service zone sizes are jointly optimized. Sensitivity analyses explore how the choice among conventional and flexible busses depends on the demand, subsidy, and demand elasticity parameters. The results also show that welfare can increase due to coordination, and these increases are found to be higher in cases with high demand or low subsidy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

双层通道中可渗透底部起伏的波浪散射(英文)

The scattering of plane surface waves by bottom undulations in channel flow consisting of two layers is investigated by assuming that the bed of the channel is composed of porous material. The upper surface of the fluid is bounded by a rigid lid and the channel is unbounded in the horizontal directions. There exists only one wave mode corresponding to an internal wave. For small undulations, a simplified perturbation analysis is used to obtain first order reflection and transmission coefficients in terms of integrals involving the shape function describing the bottom. For sinusoidal bottom undulations and exponentially decaying bottom topography, the first order coefficients are computed. In the case of sinusoidal bottom the first order transmission coefficient is found to vanish identically. The numerical results are depicted graphically in a number of figures.     

New evidence on walking distances to transit stops: identifying redundancies and gaps using variable service areas

The percentage of the population being served by a transit system in a metropolitan region is a key system performance measure but depends heavily on the definition of service area. Observing existing service areas can help identify transit system gaps and redundancies. In the public transit industry, buffers at 400 m (0.25 miles) around bus stops and 800 m (0.5 miles) around rail stations are commonly used to identify the area from which most transit users will access the system by foot. This study uses detailed OD survey information to generate service areas that define walking catchment areas around transit services in Montreal, Canada. The 85th percentile walking distance to bus transit service is found to be around 524 m for home-based trip origins, 1,259 m for home-based commuter rail trip origins. Yet these values are found to vary based on our analysis using two statistical models. Walking distances vary based on route and trip qualities (such as type of transit service, transfers and wait time), as well as personal, household, and neighbourhood characteristics. Accordingly, service areas around transit stations should vary based on the service offered and attributes of the people and places served. The generated service areas derived from the generalized statistical model are then used to identify gaps and redundancies at the system and route level using Montreal region as an example. This study can be of benefit to transport engineers and planners trying to maximize transit service coverage in a region while avoiding oversupply of service.     

Travel time variability and airport accessibility

We analyze the cost of access travel time variability for air travelers. Reliable access to airports is important since the cost of missing a flight is likely to be high. First, the determinants of the preferred arrival times at airports are analyzed. Second, the willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in access travel time, early and late arrival time at the airport, and the probability to miss a flight are estimated, using a stated choice experiment. The results indicate that the WTPs are relatively high. Third, a model is developed to calculate the cost of variable travel times for representative air travelers going by car, taking into account travel time cost, scheduling cost and the cost of missing a flight using empirical travel time data. In this model, the value of reliability for air travelers is derived taking “anticipating departure time choice” into account, meaning that travelers determine their departure time from home optimally. Results of the numerical exercise show that the cost of access travel time variability for business travelers are between 0% and 30% of total access travel cost, and for non-business travelers between 0% and 25%. These numbers depend strongly on the time of the day.     

Port administration and coastal zone management in Vancouver,British Columbia: A comparison with Seattle,Washington

Large North American ports are encountering serious management challenges. Surrounding communities, environmental interest groups, and government policy are focusing on protection and enhancement of public coastal amenities. In Vancouver, the federal port management system historically enabled national trade interests to override local and regional objectives at the discretion of port decison makers. In contrast, the Port of Seattle is administered at the local level, and legislation and policy require that local publics are involved in decision‐making. Recently, VPC established itself as the vanguard among Canada's major ports in the advancement of progressive management. Nevertheless, the adoption of new policies would ensure that Vancouver, and Canada's other ports, continue to be responsible leaders in Canadian coastal management. These policies include: federal, municipal, and provincial government representation on the local board of directors; strengthening community involvement; creation of a standing planning advisory committee; subjecting Canadian ports to the federal environmental assessment law; and adoption of explicit land and water use regulations.