The relationship between design and economic performance of ships

Success in the shipping industry depends to large extent on the quality of the main asset: the ship. The owner or operator will ask herself: do I have the right ship for a certain job, and what performance can I achieve with a given ship. The relationship between the specifications of the ship, which are fixed in the design stage, and the economic performance of the ship has received some attention, but most of the previous work lacks in the extent to which economic performance is measured or expressed.

This paper describes an attempt to operationalize the concept of design for service in the maritime industry. The paper presents a lengthy review of previous work, which shows that some attention was devoted in the past to the relationship between economic and technical aspects of shipping. However, the 'economics' usually turned out to be simple cost calculations, instead of clear insight in costs and benefits of certain design decisions. The main variable for the shipowner to buy a ship, or to operate a ship on a certain route is earnings potential. The relation between technical specifications and earnings potential is fairly direct: desired earnings potential influences the design specifications, and the specification of the finished ship determine the earnings potential. The analysis in this paper shows that shipowners also consider cargo carrying capacity, speed and versatility, but no other, more detailed, design factors.

Subsequently, we present the design for service framework for the shipping industry. This framework points the attention to a thorough service requirements analysis that drives the design stage. Finally, some preliminary work is presented on empirical studies that are currently developed in the Netherlands.     

Contributions to maritime economics—Zenon S. Zannetos, the theory of oil tankship rates

This paper discusses the importance of Zannetos' 1966 book for the development of maritime economic thought. The main contributions of the book are recounted, and the empirical work in the book is reviewed.

The analysis of the present paper is a citation research on the maritime economics literature that refers to the book. Of the 42 papers in the set, about one-third refers to the book in general. A total of 35 papers refer to one or more elements of the book, with an equal number of references to: (1) the term structure of freight rates; (2) the empirical findings on the form of the supply curve; and (3) on the verification of his results.

The general conclusion of the citation analysis is that, apparently, a number of elements of his work are still very valid for current maritime economics thinking, while maritime economists have disregarded several other elements. The latter seems unjustified for some of the business structure observations that are made in the book, such as the notion that the ship is the firm, and the elasticity of expectations. The former observation is the basis for virtually all empirical work in maritime economics that is based on individual contract data (all freight rate analysis is of this nature), and the second is the basis for the analysis of investment behaviour in shipping, investigations of cyclicality and so on.

Zannetos can definitely be seen as the initiator of the important field of term structure analysis in maritime economics. In addition to this, there are several topics in the 1966 book that are as yet unexplored, and deserve empirical scrutiny.     

Developing Transport Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa through Public–Private Partnerships: Policy Practice and Implications

In contemporary times, Public–Private Partnership (PPP) in transport infrastructure has gained considerable attention in developing regions following its success in the developed countries. However, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is among the developing regions with few transport PPP projects and among the regions with high number of failed projects. Meanwhile the region's transport infrastructure need far exceeds it current provision. This paper therefore aims to examine the project experiences (success and failure factors) of three highly profiled transport PPP projects, namely the Lekki toll road concession project (Nigeria), N4 toll road (South Africa/Mozambique) and Port of Maputo (Mozambique) in order to develop policy measures for effective future implementation. The experiences of the three projects show that transport PPP policy is indeed feasible in SSA. However, to realise its full applicability, proper policy actions and measures must be carefully observed and these include effective and efficient stakeholder management, transparent and competitive tendering process, high participation of local investors, stable macro-economic conditions and strong government commitment and regulatory framework. The projects experiences and policy actions developed are impactful in accelerating transport infrastructure development through PPP approach in SSA. Hence it is hoped that policy-makers and practitioners would be informed on the key strategies to employ in implementing future projects.     

The interactions between e-shopping and traditional in-store shopping: an application of structural equations model

As the proliferation of e-commerce leads to ever greater numbers of on-line transactions, transportation planners are interested in the impacts of e-shopping on our strained transportation systems. Although the substitution effect of e-shopping is appealing, previous studies provided mixed results on its impact. Using 539 adult internet users in the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area, this study applied a structural equations model to investigate the interactions among online purchases, in-store shopping, and product information search via internet. We found that online searching frequency has positive impacts on both online and in-store shopping frequencies and online buying positively affects in-store shopping. In particular, the marginal effects of online-buying frequency and online-searching frequency on in-store shopping frequency were estimated at 0.153 and 0.189, respectively. Since the internet as a shopping channel tends to have a complementary effect on in-store shopping, the rise of e-shopping is not likely to be a solution but a challenge to travel reduction.     

A random forests approach to prioritize Highway Safety Manual (HSM) variables for data collection

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) recommends using the empirical Bayes method with locally derived calibration factors to predict an agency's safety performance. The data needs for deriving these local calibration factors are significant, requiring very detailed roadway characteristics information. Many of these data variables are currently unavailable in most of the agencies' databases. Furthermore, it is not economically feasible to collect and maintain all the HSM data variables. This study aims to prioritize the HSM calibration variables based on their impact on crash predictions. Prioritization would help to identify influential variables for which data could be collected and maintained for continued updates, and thereby reduce intensive data collection efforts. Data were first collected for all the HSM variables from over 2400 miles of urban and suburban arterial road networks in Florida. Using 5 years (2008–2012) of crash data, a random forests data mining approach was then applied to measure the importance of each variable in crash frequency predictions for five different urban and suburban arterial facilities including two‐lane undivided, three‐lane with a two‐way left‐turn lane, four‐lane undivided, four‐lane divided, and five‐lane with a two‐way left‐turn lane. Two heuristic approaches were adopted to prioritize the variables: (i) simple ranking based on individual relative influence of variables; and (ii) clustering based on relative influence of variables within a specific range. Traffic volume was found as the most influential variable. Roadside object density, minor commercial driveway density, and minor residential driveway density variables were the other variables with significant influence on crash predictions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation methods supporting homologation of Electronic Stability Control in vehicle variants

ABSTRACT

Vehicle simulation has a long tradition in the automotive industry as a powerful supplement to physical vehicle testing. In the field of Electronic Stability Control (ESC) system, the simulation process has been well established to support the ESC development and application by suppliers and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). The latest regulation of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UN/ECE-R 13 allows also for simulation-based homologation. This extends the usage of simulation from ESC development to homologation. This paper gives an overview of simulation methods, as well as processes and tools used for the homologation of ESC in vehicle variants. The paper first describes the generic homologation process according to the European Regulation (UN/ECE-R 13H, UN/ECE-R 13/11) and U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS 126). Subsequently the ESC system is explained as well as the generic application and release process at the supplier and OEM side. Coming up with the simulation methods, the ESC development and application process needs to be adapted for the virtual vehicles. The simulation environment, consisting of vehicle model, ESC model and simulation platform, is explained in detail with some exemplary use-cases. In the final section, examples of simulation-based ESC homologation in vehicle variants are shown for passenger cars, light trucks, heavy trucks and trailers. This paper is targeted to give a state-of-the-art account of the simulation methods supporting the homologation of ESC systems in vehicle variants. However, the described approach and the lessons learned can be used as reference in future for an extended usage of simulation-supported releases of the ESC system up to the development and release of driver assistance systems.

Abbreviations: ABS: Anti-lock braking system; ADR: Australian design rules; ALB: Automatic load-dependent brake force controller; AMEVSC: Alternative method to assess the electronic vehicle stability control system; APP: Application; BSC: Brake slip controller; CAE: Computer-aided engineering; CAN: Controller area network; CAT: Category; CoG: Centre of gravity; DIN: Deutsches Institut für Normung (German Institute for Standards); EB+: Trademark of Haldex; EBD: Electronic brake force distribution; EBS: Electronic brake system; ECU: Electronic control unit; ESC: Electronic stability control; ECVWTA: European Community Whole Vehicle Type Approval; FMVSS: Federal motor vehicle safety standards; GPS: Global positioning system; GRRF: Groupe de travail en matiere de roulement et de freinage (Working Party on Braking and Running Gear); HiL: Hardware-in-the-Loop; HSRI: Highway Safety Research Institute; K&C: Kinematic and compliant (KnC); MBS: Multibody systems; MPV: Multipurpose vehicle; NHTSA: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; OEM: Original equipment manufacturer; SiL: Software-in-the-Loop; ST: Summer tyres; STM: Single track model; StVO: Straßenverkehrsordnung (Government Highway Regulations); SUV: Sports utility vehicle; SW: Software; SwD: Sine with dwell manoeuvre; TC: Threshold consumption value; TCS: Traction control system; TRIAS: Test Requirements and Instructions for Automobile Standards; UN/ECE: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe; VAF: Value-added function; VDC: Vehicle dynamics controller; VTC: Vehicle test catalogue; WT: Winter tyres     

A co-integration approach to forecasting freight rates in the dry bulk shipping sector

In this paper, a vector autoregressive model is developed for a sample of ocean dry bulk freight rates. Although the series of freight rates are themselves found to be non-stationary, thus precluding the use of many modelling methodologies, evidence provided by cointegration tests points to the existence of stable long-term relationships between the series. An assessment of the forecasts derived from the model suggests that the specification of these long-term relationships does not improve the accuracy of short- or long-term forecasts. These results are interpreted as a corroboration of the efficient market hypothesis.