The effectiveness of a European speed limit versus an international bunker-levy to reduce CO2 emissions from container shipping

In the fight to reduce CO₂ emissions from international shipping, a bunker-levy is currently under consideration at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Faced with the inability of the IMO to reach an agreement in the short term, the European Commission is now contemplating a unilateral measure of a speed limit for all ships entering European Union (EU) ports. This paper argues that this measure is counterproductive for two reasons. Firstly, because it may ultimately generate more emissions and incur a cost per ton of CO₂ which is more than society is willing to pay. Secondly, because it is sub-optimal compared to results obtained if an international bunker-levy was to be implemented. These elements are illustrated using two direct transatlantic services operated in 2010.     

Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.     

Response spectrum method for extreme wave loading with higher order components of drag force

Response spectra of fixed offshore structures impacted by extreme waves are investigated based on the higher order components of the nonlinear drag force. In this way, steel jacket platforms are simplified as a mass attached to a light cantilever cylinder and their corresponding deformation response spectra are estimated by utilizing a generalized single degree of freedom system. Based on the wave data recorded in the Persian Gulf region, extreme wave loading conditions corresponding to different return periods are exerted on the offshore structures. Accordingly, the effect of the higher order components of the drag force is considered and compared to the linearized state for different sea surface levels. When the fundamental period of the offshore structure is about one third of the main period of wave loading, the results indicate the linearized drag term is not capable of achieving a reliable deformation response spectrum.     

Economic conditions for minibus usage in a multimodal feeder network

The introduction of minibuses into the transit fleets of some cities makes it more important than ever to investigate the economic and operating conditions of these vehicles for various transit and paratransit services. A high performance transit system is of great interest, owing to its desirable characteristics. However, it is not feasible to establish and use such a system all over a city. It is therefore necessary to support a high performance transit system with other modes to extend its area of operation (owing to higher demand) and also to connect those areas that are not covered by the high performance system to it. This paper considers the use of minibuses in the design of metro line feeders and to characterize the economic domain in which it is efficient to use them in a feeder network. Based on results from ant colony optimization, the performance measures of minibuses are compared with those of conventional buses to help make decision makers aware of the use and role of these vehicles. The study contradicts the common belief that, since minibuses require similar driver costs to those of conventional buses, it is not economical to use them in a transit fleet; in fact, it is shown that minibuses can displace conventional buses in some situations in a feeder network.     

Geometric stress distribution along the weld toe of the outer brace in two-planar tubular DKT-joints: Parametric study and deriving the SCF design equations

Regarding the research efforts expended so far on the calculation of stress concentration factors (SCFs) in tubular joints, two major shortcomings can be noted: (a) significant effort has been devoted to the study of SCFs in various uni-planar connections. Nevertheless, for multi-planar joints which cover the majority of practical applications, very few investigations have been reported due to the complexity and high cost involved; (b) majority of these research works focused on the study of SCFs at certain positions such as the saddle, crown toe, and crown heel, and they have ignored the hot-spot stress (HSS) at other positions along the weld toe. In the present paper, effects of dimensionless geometrical parameters on the SCF distribution along the weld toe of main (outer) braces in the axially loaded right-angle two-planar tubular DKT-joints are investigated. In order to study the multi-planar effect, SCF distribution in two-planar joints is compared with the distribution in a uni-planar joint having the same geometrical properties. A complete set of SCF database is constructed based on the two-planar DKT-joint Finite element models which are verified against experimental results and the predictions of Lloyd’s Register (LR) equations. The FE models cover a wide range of geometrical parameters. Six new SCF parametric formulae are developed through nonlinear regression analyses for the accurate and reliable fatigue design of two-planar DKT-joints under axial loads. An assessment study of these equations is conducted against the experimental data, the original FEM database and the acceptance criteria recommended by the UK Department of Energy.     

Marine Protected Area Management Effectiveness: Progress and Lessons in the Philippines

Quantifying progress in management of marine protected areas (MPAs) is crucial to marine conservation and fisheries management in the Philippines. This study compiles data on the status, occurrence, and management gaps of MPAs through coordination with multiple organizations supporting and guiding MPAs in the Philippines. MPA management effectiveness was measured using a MPA Rating System. Since 2002 the modal MPA rating levels increased from level 1 (initiated) to level 4 (sustained) in 2008/9. This upward trend is attributed to factors that promoted both the establishment and improved management of MPAs. Analysis indicated that: (1) most MPAs struggle with budgetary constraints or lack of sustainable financing and (2) overall the MPAs are being maintained and progressing with notable improvement in management despite a range of difficulties encountered during the implementation process. For MPAs in the Visayan Region for which biophysical data were available, the MPA Rating System was used to assess the effectiveness of local government capacity building on MPA coral reef health. Our results suggest that MPAs with higher ratings are likely to have better reef health conditions.     

Polycentricity and transit service

This paper focuses on the two related issues of employment distribution and access to transit services. Using the 2001 census tract level economic activities and transit routes within the county, a number of analyses were performed to determine the location of major employment centers in Los Angeles County and how these localities may be understood within the context of a transit service operation in a polycentric metropolitan area. The identified economic subcenters contain one-third of the county employment and its firms, collectively. While these economic nodes are networked by the existing bus routes, the connection between employees and their place of work appears to be inadequate. This has created a less than optimal condition in many sections of the metropolitan area. This paper suggests methodologies for encountering this shortcoming.     

Freeway path travel time prediction based on heterogeneous traffic data through nonparametric model

Providing reliable travel time prediction is very much needed for commuters for their upcoming trips to reduce travel time and relieve traffic congestion. This article proposes an integrated model for path and multi-step-ahead travel time prediction on freeways using both historical and real-time heterogeneous traffic and weather data. The model's performance is investigated in a case study under various traffic scenarios. Results indicate that the proposed model provides satisfactory prediction results in various performance tests. For practical purposes, general guidelines for selecting the model's parameter sets as well as the efficient size of historical data are also presented.