Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Regulation of the informal transport sector in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: welfare impacts and policy analysis

In Brazil, the explosion of informal transport activity during the past decade has had profound effects on formal public transport systems and is a source of great controversy in the urban transportation sector. A variety of policies have been proposed to manage the growth of the sector. This study seeks to understand how proposed policies will impact the users of these systems. A corridor in Rio de Janeiro with substantial informal activity was used as a case study. Measures of welfare changes in a discrete choice framework were used to estimate proposed policies’ impacts on users. Eleven candidate policies were evaluated, ranging from the eradication of the informal modes and investment in formal modes, to the legalization of the informal modes. Benefits were compared with costs and the distribution of benefits across income classes was explored. Net benefits from some policies were found to be substantial. Legalizing the informal sector was found to benefit users slightly but further investments in the sector are probably inefficient. Users benefited most from improvements in formal mass transit modes, at roughly 100–200 dollars per commuter per year. Finally, policies to foster a competitive environment for the delivery of both informal and formal services were shown to benefit users about 100 dollars per commuter per year. Together, the regulation of the informal sector and investments in the formal sector serve to reinforce the movement towards competitive concessions for services and help reduce the impacts of cartelization and costly in-road competition.

Tool for Predicting the Ultimate Bending Moment of Ship and Ship-Shaped Hull Girders

The present paper presents a historical review associated with the research works on hull girder strength of ship and ship-shaped structures. Then, a new program is developed to determine the ultimate vertical bending moment of hull girder by applying direct method, stress distribution method, and progressive collapse analysis method. Six ships and ship-shaped structures used in the benchmark study of International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress (ISSC) in 2012 are adopted as examples. The calculation results by applying the developed program are analyzed and compared with the existing results. Finally, the roles of the developed program and its further development are discussed.     

Real-Time Fault Diagnosis for Gas Turbine Blade Based on Output-Hidden Feedback Elman Neural Network

In order to remotely monitor and maintain large-scale complex equipment in real time, China Telecom plans to create a total solution that integrates remote data collection, transmission, storage, analysis and prediction. This solution can provide manufacturers with proactive, systematic, integrated operation and maintenance service, and the data analysis and health forecasting are the most important part. This paper conducts health management for the turbine blades. Elman neural network, and improved Elman neural network, i.e., outputhidden feedback (OHF) Elman neural network are studied as the main research methods. The results verify the applicability of OHF Elman neural network.     

Review of Secure Communication Approaches for In-Vehicle Network

In the connected vehicles, connecting interfaces bring threats to the vehicles and they can be hacked to impact the vehicles and drivers. Compared with traditional vehicles, connected vehicles require more information transfer. Sensor signals and critical data must be protected to ensure the cyber security of connected vehicles. The communications among ECUs, sensors, and gateways are connected by in-vehicle networks. This paper discussed the state-of-art techniques about secure communication for in-vehicle networks. First, the related concepts in automotive secure communication have been provided. Then we have compared and contrasted existing approaches for secure communication. We have analyzed the advantages/disadvantages of MAC and digital signatures for message authentication and compared the performance and limitations of different cryptographic algorithms. Firewall and intrusion detection system are introduced to protect the networks. The constraints and features of different intrusion detection approaches are presented. After that, the technical requirements for cryptographic mechanism and intrusion detection policy are concluded. Based on the review of current researches, the future development directions of the automotive network security have been discussed. The purpose of this paper is to review current techniques on automotive secure communication and suggest suitable secure approaches to implement on the in-vehicle networks.     

Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 718 for Automotive Engine Materials

This study was carried out to investigate the creep life at the high temperature of the Alloy 718 for automotive engine components using the initial strain parameter method (ISPM). Creep tests have performed at elevated temperatures in the range of 550 oC to 700 oC in this work. We also carried out constant stress creep tests. The initial strains were measured during 1 minute after loading. Both the creep stress and rupture time depend on the initial strain. We calculated the creep life of Alloy 718 by using the creep life prediction equations obtained from the ISPM. Then, we compared the creep life predicted by the ISPM to the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP). The experimental rupture time and the calculated rupture time by using the ISPM agreed with a confidence level of 95 %. The creep life predicted by using the ISPM was in very good agreement with the creep life predicted using the LMP method.     

Fast Ferry Smoothing Motion via Intelligent PD Controller

A novel type of control law was adopted to reduce the vertical acceleration of a fast ferry as well as the motion sickness incidence suffered by the passengers onboard by means of a submerged T-foil. Considering the system changing characteristics under high disturbances, a model-free approach was adopted. In addition, an upgraded proportional-derivative (PD) controller with correction terms resulting from a fast-online estimation of the system dynamics was designed. The overall controller, known as intelligent PD (i-PD) controller, was tested, and the obtained results were compared with those of a classic PD controller. The controllers were also tested in a changing environment and at different operating velocities. The results confirmed the effectiveness of the i-PD controller to smooth the motions with low computational cost control schemes. Furthermore, thanks to ability of the i-PD controller to continually update the estimated dynamics of the system, it showed a better reduction in both vertical motions and the seasickness level of the passengers with the needed robustness under external disturbances and system changing parameters.     

A Simplified Model for the Effect of Weld-Induced Residual Stresses on the Axial Ultimate Strength of Stiffened Plates

The present work investigates the compressive axial ultimate strength of fillet-welded steel-plated ship structures subjected to uniaxial compression, in which the residual stresses in the welded plates are calculated by a thermo-elasto-plastic finite element analysis that is used to fit an idealized model of residual stress distribution. The numerical results of ultimate strength based on the simplified model of residual stress show good agreement with those of various methods including the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Common Structural Rules (CSR), leading to the conclusion that the simplified model can be effectively used to represent the distribution of residual stresses in steel-plated structures in a wide range of engineering applications. It is concluded that the widths of the tension zones in the welded plates have a quasi-linear behavior with respect to the plate slenderness. The effect of residual stress on the axial strength of the stiffened plate is analyzed and discussed.     

Improving the coexistence of offshore wind farms and shipping: an international comparison of navigational risk assessment processes

The continued growth and evolution of the offshore wind industry, and the emergence of other novel marine uses such as wave and tidal generators, have upped the ante for spatial planners, as well as consenting and approval authorities in various coastal states. These stakeholders rely on processes such as navigational risk assessments (NRAs) to balance safety and efficiency requirements and to make optimal decisions over use of space. Given the increasingly complex and crowded seascape, however, there are some apprehensions about potential shortcomings in these NRA processes. There is also some concern that these inadequacies may lead to unsafe or inefficient marine spatial use. To understand how NRA processes can be improved further, a literature review is conducted, followed by a survey of respondents who are involved in the planning, consenting and/or approval of offshore wind farms across seven different countries. A summary of the NRA processes in these seven countries is presented, and several shortcomings are identified. Based on the findings of the survey, a list of recommendations is presented to enhance existing NRA processes—and to improve the coexistence of shipping and offshore wind farms (OWFs).