城市交通控制的演变--政策与技术变更

在过去的一个世纪里,城市交通控制始终在演变,以适应日益复杂的政策目标和不断增长的交通需求。一个高效的交通控制系统可以带来很多收益,例如缓解拥堵、提高经济效益以及改善道路安全和空气质量。车辆检测和通信技术方面取得的显著进步为交通控制系统的调控能力带来了一系列阶段性变化：从早期（固定配时）信号控制发展到现代化的集成系统。多种类型的交通控制系统在全球不同地区建设完成,每种系统都有各自的优势和不足。首先通过对比分析目前占据领先地位的商用系统（以及一些较少为人所知的系统）,凸显交通控制系统的关键特征和差异,然后评估目前的交通控制系统是否能实现现代交通政策的职能和需求。最后,探讨了当前及未来的交通政策,以及未来10年交通控制发展的技术性蓝图,指出交通控制有望通过技术进步从有限数据时代迈入大数据时代。     

Activity settings and travel behaviour: A social contact perspective

Using time-use data from Canada, Norway, and Sweden, this study briefly outlines the essence of the activity setting approach and illustrates one aspect of its usefulness by exploring the impact of social contact on travel behaviour. The activity system approach views behaviour in context. Activity settings are generic components of the activity system and studying them using time-use diaries can provide major insights into travel behaviour. Focusing on social contact, this paper characterizes the social environment in terms of social circle (interaction partners) and social space (location). The analysis shows that there are clear differences in the levels of social interaction across various groups, including those who work at home. The 1992 Canadian data showed people working at the workplace spend relatively more time with others, about 50% of total time awake. Working at home reduced the time with others to a low of 15.7%. when people worked at home the family benefited, almost doubling the time spent with them compared to those working at the workplace. Persons working at home only spend the most time alone. There is a tendency for persons with low social interaction to travel more. It is argued that individual need, or want, social contact and if they cannot find it at the workplace they will seek it elsewhere thus generating travel. Whether this is the result of need or opportunity is of minor relevance, what it does suggest is that working in isolation at home will not necessarily diminish travel but rather may simply change its purpose. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

"虎豹"的塔塔时代预测

公司简介 CSM Worldwide公司（www．csmauto．com），为全球650多个汽车整车制造商，汽车零部件供应商和其他经济组织提供全球汽车市场咨询和预测服务。公司总部位于北美底特律，在全球12个地区设有分公司或附属机构。中国公司总部设在上海。     

The shape of MaaS: The potential for MaaS Lite

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is about improving mobility for people. Since Gothenburg piloted the first multi-modal Mobility as a Service (MaaS) scheme from 2012, there have been many further attempts at introducing connected and bundled services globally, invariably provided as a mobile app and a single, simple ticketing interface. As in any emerging paradigm, the varying flavour, or ‘shapes’ of MaaS that are piloted reflect the search for a sustainable business model and connectivity between transport operators at varying levels that includes risk reallocation and data sharing. The varying levels of success of MaaS and Mobility on Demand (MOD) lead the authors to propose MaaS Lite, which reflects an incremental approach to MaaS based on a simpler organisational arrangement that does not depend upon the introduction of a Mobility Operator as a new player. MaaS Lite also recognises that most trips are not complex at all, often based on one or two connected mechanised modes that meets highly local needs, including FMLM service connectivity.Overall, MaaS is not a ‘one size fits all’ solution for all regions but the benefits of the highly targeted MaaS Lite could realise early public benefits as a first step in the development of a multi-phased ‘services road map’ that evolves towards the implementation of multi-modal, region-wide operationally integrated MaaS. Case studies in Hong Kong and Brisbane demonstrate the merits of MaaS Lite in these two contrasting environments having different regulatory regimes, population densities and levels of private car ownership.     

An Approach to Determining Worst Case Platoon Behavior

This paper presents a method with which one can evaluate alternative platooning control strategies with respect to worst case behavior. The motivation is to provide platoon control designers with an objective means of evaluating robustness in the face of system uncertainties. The approach can be viewed as an extension of optimal control procedures and is applicable to complex, nonlinear systems. An arbitrary number of uncertain parameters, unmodeled components and inputs are allowed. The end result is a lower bound for the worst case platoon performance.     

Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.