Job accessibility and employment outcomes: which income groups benefit the most?

Improving job accessibility can increase the probability for individual persons to be employed and reduce their commutes. Empirical research suggests that the relationship between job accessibility and employment outcomes differ across income groups, but no research has investigated the difference or explored which income groups benefit the most from job accessibility improvements. This research fills the gap by examining six income groups in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Results show that job accessibility affects the employment status of medium-to-low income groups (household income between US$25,000 and US$75,000). For the lowest-income group (household income lower than US$25,000), owning a car significantly improves their chances to be employed, but job accessibility has no effect. On the other hand, higher job accessibility is associated with shorter commuting distance for the other five income groups, but not for the lowest-income group. These results suggest that transportation and land use policies need to address the specific needs of distinct population groups and underscore the importance of spatial access for the middle-class, which tends to be overlooked in the literature on transportation equity.     

A behavioral choice model of the use of car-sharing and ride-sourcing services

There are a number of disruptive mobility services that are increasingly finding their way into the marketplace. Two key examples of such services are car-sharing services and ride-sourcing services. In an effort to better understand the influence of various exogenous socio-economic and demographic variables on the frequency of use of ride-sourcing and car-sharing services, this paper presents a bivariate ordered probit model estimated on a survey data set derived from the 2014–2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study. Model estimation results show that users of these services tend to be young, well-educated, higher-income, working individuals residing in higher-density areas. There are significant interaction effects reflecting the influence of children and the built environment on disruptive mobility service usage. The model developed in this paper provides key insights into factors affecting market penetration of these services, and can be integrated in larger travel forecasting model systems to better predict the adoption and use of mobility-on-demand services.     

The role of socio-economic,built environment and psychological factors in parental mode choice for their children in an Iranian setting

This research investigated the role of parental psychological and socio-economic factors as well as built environment for the choice of their children’s (primary school pupils, aged 7–9 years) travel mode to school in Rasht, Iran. A total of 1078 questionnaires were distributed (return rate of 80 percent) among pupils in nine primary schools in January 2014. A mixed logit (ML) model was employed due to its ability to test heterogeneity among parents and also to determine its possible sources. Results of random coefficient ML modelling showed that several psychological, socio-economic and built environment characteristics were significant factors in parental mode choice. Only walking time perception to school had a significant random normal distribution coefficient and no other psychological and socio-economic variable had a random effect. Further investigation by random coefficient analysis showed that the possible source of household preference heterogeneity could be to own two or more cars. Regarding psychological variables, strong parental worry about their children walking alone to school had a negative impact on allowing them to walk to school. Parents who evaluated poor contextual and design preconditions for walking tended to choose school service more than private car and walking. Parents with stronger environmental personal norms were more willing to allow their children to walk. The findings suggest that infrastructural measures, such as sidewalk facilities, neighborhood security and safety, encourage parents to allow children to walk to school. Information campaigns targeting environmental norms may increase walking among pupils in an Iranian setting.     

Incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles: the influence of transport policies,attitudes and perceptions

This paper aims to evaluate the influence of policies, attitudes and perceptions when incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles. The impact of possible policies such as gasoline taxes increases, purchase price subsidies, tax exemptions, and increases in fuel recharging station availability for alternative fuelled vehicles is evaluated using hybrid choice models. The models also allow assessing the sensitivity of latent variables (i.e., attitudes and perceptions) in the car purchase behaviour. The models are estimated using data from a stated choice survey collected in five Colombian cities. The latent variables are obtained from the rating of statements related to the transport system, environmental concern, vehicle preferences, and technology. The modelling approach includes regression between latent variables. Results show that environmental concern and the support for green transport policies have a positive influence on the intention to purchase alternative fuel vehicles. Meanwhile, people who reveal to be car-dependent prefer to buy standard fuelled vehicles. The analysis among cities shows similar trends in individual behaviour, although there are differences in attribute sensitivities. The policy scenario analysis revealed high sensitivity to capital cost and the need for extensive investments in refuelling stations for alternative fuel vehicles to become attractive. Nevertheless, all policies should not only be directed at infrastructure and vehicles but also be focused on user awareness and acceptance of the alternative fuel vehicles. The analysis suggests that in an environmentally conscious market, people prefer alternative fuels. However, if the transport policies support private transport, the market shares of alternative fuel vehicles will decrease.     

Identification and quantification of link vulnerability in multi-level public transport networks: a passenger perspective

Robust public transport networks are important, since disruptions decrease the public transport accessibility of areas. Despite this importance, the full passenger impacts of public transport network vulnerability have not yet been considered in science and practice. We have developed a methodology to identify the most vulnerable links in the total, multi-level public transport network and to quantify the societal costs of link vulnerability for these identified links. Contrary to traditional single-level network approaches, we consider the integrated, total multi-level PT network in the identification and quantification of link vulnerability, including PT services on other network levels which remain available once a disturbance occurs. We also incorporate both exposure to large, non-recurrent disturbances and the impacts of these disturbances explicitly when identifying and quantifying link vulnerability. This results in complete and realistic insights into the negative accessibility impacts of disturbances. Our methodology is applied to a case study in the Netherlands, using a dataset containing 2.5 years of disturbance information. Our results show that especially crowded links of the light rail/metro network are vulnerable, due to the combination of relatively high disruption exposure and relatively high passenger flows. The proposed methodology allows quantification of robustness benefits of measures, in addition to the costs of these measures. Showing the value of robustness, our work can support and rationalize the decision-making process of public transport operators and authorities regarding the implementation of robustness measures.     

Efficient estimation of extreme long-term stresses by considering a combination of longitudinal bending stresses

Longitudinal stresses due to combined horizontal and vertical bending moments in ships, corresponding to a return period of 20 years, are estimated by linear response analysis. In principle, the stress should be obtained by combining the stress in all sea states that can occur over a long-term period. A method to determine the desired long-term extreme stress by considering only a few short-term sea states is presented. The sea states have a certain probability of occurrence, and are each identified by a contour line in the (H _s, T _p)-plane. This approach makes it possible to estimate the extreme loads on the vessel in a practical and accurate manner. Moreover, it is shown that the long-term stress can be estimated by combining the individual long-term extreme stresses due to vertical and horizontal bending moments by using the sum-of-squares approach and accounting for the correlation between stresses. It was found that the correlation coefficient can be taken as the largest of the ones calculated along the contour line. It is shown that this correlation coefficient can even be approximated by the normalized phase angle at the wave length where the dominant response has its peak value. A comparison with the results obtained using well-known combination rules is presented. While linear analysis has been used here, it is believed that the approach can be generalized to stresses with nonlinear behavior, and hence represent a significant improvement in calculation efficiency. Received: September 18, 2001 / Accepted: December 18, 2001     

Prediction method of hydrodynamic forces acting on the hull of a blunt-body ship in the even keel condition

The mathematical modeling group (MMG) model is well known and is widely used in the field of ship maneuverability. However, the MMG model can be applied only after determination of the hydrodynamic coefficients either from comprehensive captive model tests or from general empirical data. Around the cruising speed, when a ship's drift angle is relatively small, several methods have been developed to predict hydrodynamic coefficients from the ship's principal particulars, e.g., Kijima's method. Kijima's method is efficient in predicting the ship's maneuverability at the initial design stage and is even able to assess the effect of changes in stern design. Similarly, for the low speed range when a ship's drift angle is relatively large, several methods for predicting the ship's hydrodynamic coefficients have been proposed, based on captive model tests, such as those by Kose, Kobayashi, and Yumuro. However, most of the methods developed for low speeds cannot be applied to general ship types without additional experiments being performed. In contrast, Karasuno's method uses theoretical and empirical approaches to predict the hydrodynamic forces, even for large drift motions. Although Karasuno's model utilizes the ship's principal particulars and is applicable to a general vessel, it has not been widely used. This is because the form of Karasuno's model is relatively complicated and its accuracy around the cruising speed is less than that for other methods that have been specifically developed for the cruising speed range. A practical method for predicting hydrodynamic forces for the entire operating speed range of blunt-body ships is proposed in this article. It is based on the MMG model and predicts hydrodynamic coefficients based on a ship's principal particulars. A regression model for the proposed method has also been proposed by analyzing 21 different blunt-body ships. Finally, simulations of a very large 4-m crude carrier (VLCC) model using the proposed method were carried out and the results compared with free-running experiments (both at the cruising speed and at low speeds) to validate the efficacy of the model.     

A review of the effect of a／W ratio on fracture toughness （Ⅰ）—experimental investigation in EPFM

Many experimental investigations have previously been performed and recently done on different shipbuilding structural steels where the specimens size and crack depth/specimen width (a/W) were varied. A series of interesting results have been gained. It is worthwhile to have a review on the effect of a/W ratio on fracture toughness, and further theoretical analysis is necessary. In this paper, experimental work in elasticplastic fracture mechanics (EPFM) was discussed. Tests had been carried out on 10 kinds of strength steels. Results showed that J _i and δ₁ values increased with decreasing a/W when a/W<0.3 for three-point bend specimens and that shallow crack specimens which have less constrained flow field give markedly higher values of toughness than deeply notched specimens. However, for a/W>0.3, the toughness was found to be independent of a/W. Slip line field analysis shows that for shallow cracks, the hydrostatic stress is lower than that from standard deeply cracked bend specimen which develops a high level of crack tip constraint, provides a lower bound estimate of toughness, and will ensure an unduly conservative approach when applied to structure defects especially if initiation values of COD/J-integral are used.     

Geometric modelling of bulbous bows with the use of non-uniform rational B-spline surfaces

Nowadays, bulbous bow forms have become a common design feature in most conventional ship designs. The design of a bulbous bow is usually attempted with the use of certain form parameters that are imposed using the designer's experience or regression values that provide the optimum parameters based on experimental tests or computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations. In this article, the geometric modelling of a bulbous bow form that complies with a series of parameters is presented. First, a wire model was constructed with cubic B-spline curves that hold certain form parameters that the designer wants to impose. Second, a B-spline surface that fits these splines was mathematically constructed. A review of the influence of the design parameters used on the bulbous bow properties was made. This method could be used prior to numerical optimization of a bulbous bow because different variations of the design can be easily generated. These variations can be tested numerically using CFD software. A practical application example of the method is shown.