Modeling isoexposure to transit users for market potential analysis

Transit operators face a difficult fiscal environment and an imperative to contribute to urban sustainability. Under these circumstances, operators must find innovative ways to make public transportation attractive to broader segments of the public, while simultaneously trying to raise revenue to reduce reliance on public subsidies. Development of commercial partnerships is seen as a promising way to achieve these goals. Previous research has examined the potential of using geodemographics to assist transit agencies in the task of identifying potential partners for developing mutually beneficial commercial agreements. In this paper we describe an approach to model isoexposure to transit users as a tool to assess market potential. The approach is based on the analysis of walking behavior of transit users, and specifically distance walked at the end of their transit trip. Spatial modeling is used to geographically project estimates of walking distance for a desired demographic profile at a specific transit facility. After expanding the estimates using sample weights, overlays of these estimates can be used to generate variations in exposure to transit travelers at different locations in space. The approach is demonstrated using the case of Metro users in Montreal, Canada. The case study demonstrates the use of isoexposure profiles as a novel approach to generate marketing intelligence. This should be of interest to transit agencies and businesses interested in developing partnerships.     

The impact of compliance measures on the operation of a bus system: The case of Transantiago

In a regulated bus system operated by private companies, pecuniary incentives can be of primary importance to ensure the quality of the operation and the level of service, especially when there are only a few companies and basically no competition among them. The case of Transantiago, in the capital city of Chile, provides a good example of this. The very ambitious Transantiago project, implemented in 2007 in Santiago, integrated the bus and the subway systems, changing the route structure of the bus services, introducing a common and integrated fare system and electronic payment device, and tendering the operation of approximately 4,600 buses (which by the launch of the system in February 2007 had increased to 5600) to 10 private companies replacing some 4000 small operators which owned 8000 buses. In the beginning, the system faced huge difficulties. Operators' revenue formula basically consisted of a fixed payment, which changed slightly with the actual patronage. This quickly turned out to be a problem, and as technological support became available (several months after the launch), compliance measures were implemented, directly affecting the operators' revenue. The first measure considered the seat/standing places per hour of the buses in operation, for each company, and compared it to the theoretical figure. As a result, buses operating during peak hours increased from 4600 to 5600 in just two months. Subsequent indexes included service frequency and regularity, as well as effective bus-km, aggregated by company first and later by service. This paper shows how the successive implementation of these performance indexes had an impact on the operation of Transantiago in the first years, discusses the difficulties faced to implement them and highlights the importance of technological support to make possible the application of adequate compliance measures.     

Transit Users’ Route‐Choice Modelling in Transit Assignment: A Review

Abstract

This paper reviews the main studies on transit users’ route choice in the context of transit assignment. The studies are categorized into three groups: static transit assignment, within‐day dynamic transit assignment, and emerging approaches. The motivations and behavioural assumptions of these approaches are re‐examined. The first group includes shortest‐path heuristics in all‐or‐nothing assignment, random utility maximization route‐choice models in stochastic assignment, and user equilibrium based assignment. The second group covers within‐day dynamics in transit users’ route choice, transit network formulations, and dynamic transit assignment. The third group introduces the emerging studies on behavioural complexities, day‐to‐day dynamics, and real‐time dynamics in transit users’ route choice. Future research directions are also discussed.     

Transaction Costs in Transport Public–Private Partnerships: Comparing Procurement Procedures

Abstract

In recent years, concern has grown over good practices in the procurement process in public–private partnerships (PPPs). The consensus view is that PPPs are prone to higher transaction costs than traditional public provision. In this paper, we contrast the hypothesis that transaction costs in transport PPPs depend, to a large extent, on the procurement mechanism used in each case, comparing the Negotiated and the Open procedures. Given that PPPs may offer considerable benefits and significant savings over the entire life cycle of the project, it is essential for PPPs to minimize those costs that undermine efficiency gains and that deter private involvement. The quantitative analysis undertaken in this paper highlights that there is room for important savings in the tendering of PPP transport infrastructure projects, using an Open procedure.     

Exploring the propensity to perform social activities: a social network approach

Conceptual and empirical models of the propensity to perform social activity–travel behavior are described, which incorporate the influence of individuals’ social context, namely their social networks. More explicitly, the conceptual model develops the concepts of egocentric social networks, social activities, and social episodes, and defines the three sets of aspects that influence the propensity to perform social activities: individuals’ personal attributes, social network composition, and information and communication technology interaction with social network members. Using the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique and data recently collected in Toronto, the empirical model tests the effect of these three aspects on the propensity to perform social activities. Results suggest that the social networks framework provides useful insights into the role of physical space, social activity types, communication and information technology use, and the importance of “with whom” the activity was performed with. Overall, explicitly incorporating social networks into the activity–travel behavior modeling framework provides a promising framework to understand social activities and key aspects of the underlying behavioral process. Juan Antonio Carrasco a PhD candidate in Civil Engineering at the University of Toronto, holds a MSc degree in Transportation Engineering from the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. His doctoral research explores the relationships between social networks, activity–travel behavior, and ICTs. His research interests also include microsimulation, land use-transportation, and econometric modeling. Eric J. Miller is Bahen-Tanenbaum Professor of Civil Engineering at the University of Toronto where he is also Director of the Joint Program in Transportation. His research interests include integrated land-use/transportation modeling, activity-based travel modeling, microsimulation and sustainable transportation planning.     

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本文提出一种用于评价公路－铁路联合运输货运枢纽选址方案的整数模型。模型中的四个主体为：货运枢纽经营者、交通运输网络设施规划者、客户、社会公众。介绍了可使全局目标优化的基于主体建模方法(ABM)在货运枢纽选址中的应用。最后，本文以澳大利亚昆士兰州东南部的货物联合运输枢纽为例，介绍了其原始选址过程、个体目标函数测试及基于主体的模型设计过程。     

PPPs — True Financial Costs and Hidden Returns

The cost of using private finance is at the centre of the public private partnerships (PPPs) debate, but until now most works considered only the direct financial costs such as the loan interest rate and the shareholders return on equity and were based on various secondary sources. This paper focuses on seven shadow toll deals closed in Portugal between 1999 and 2002 and reports the financial costs of the PPP model considering also the associated transaction costs and is based on detailed information included in each concession's financial base case. The transaction costs include financial costs such as banking fees, due diligence costs and the impact of all cash distribution traps, such as reserve accounts or minimum-level of debt ratios. The PPP financial costs were then compared with the costs arising from raising public debt through a government or a public agency bond. Our analysis shows that the PPP ‘true' financing costs are, on average, 370 basis points above the cost of raising public debt and that the ‘transaction costs' account for around 40% of that financial premium.     

Modeling bus bunching using massive location and fare collection data

Bus bunching is a well-known phenomenon for operators, users and regulators of high-frequency bus services. Bus operations are usually affected by increasing differences in the time intervals (headways) between consecutive buses. The effect of this variability is that buses tend to group into bunches of two or more, which severely affects the quality of service and the operational efficiency. The aim of this paper is to analyze which factors are associated to the phenomenon, using massive data from high-frequency services available in Santiago (Chile) and common-route services in Gatineau (Canada). The data is obtained from the bus GPS and AFC systems and are processed to obtain headways between buses. Using data from one week, we develop models to explain the variation of the continuous and discrete indicators of bus bunching as a function of variables related to the operation, variables related to the demand structure, and variables related to the infrastructure. Some of the factors that contribute to increase bus bunching are: stops located toward the end of the route, high scheduled frequency, irregular bus dispatch headways, non-homogeneous fleet, high demand, and high variability of demand. The results are useful for the design of quality indexes to measure bunching in bus operations, and for the design and operation of bus routes, taking into consideration the potential bus bunching problems.     

Micro-simulation modelling for traffic safety: A review and potential application to heterogeneous traffic environment

This paper critically reviews micro-simulation modelling applications for traffic safety evaluation with respect to the use of different simulation tools, the application of surrogate safety indicators under different aspects of road environments and crash considerations. General input variables used to develop the models; key parameters for crash prediction; and calibration and validation approaches are explored in the paper. The strengths and weaknesses of used simulation packages for traffic safety evaluation are also pointed out. Moreover, recent advancements in the development and application of traffic safety micro-simulation model for safety assessment are also discussed.Despite having a number of studies, there is still a significant void in the development and application of simulation model to evaluate traffic safety of non-lane based heterogeneous traffic environments that predominate in many developing countries. The paper assessed the potential application of traffic safety micro-simulation model in heterogeneous traffic environments. Finally, a number of potentially fruitful future research directions are highlighted.     

The effect of financial constraints on the optimal design of public transport services

Recent experience with the design of bus services in Santiago, Chile, seems to confirm Jansson's (1980) assertion regarding observed planned bus frequency and size being too low and too large, respectively. We offer an explanation based upon the relation between cost coverage, pricing and optimal design variables. We recall that average social cost decreases with patronage, which generates an optimal monetary fare below the average operators' cost, inducing an optimal subsidy. Then we compare optimal frequency and bus size—those that minimize total social costs—with those that minimize operators' costs only. We show that an active constraint on operators' expenses is equivalent to diminish the value of users' time in the optimal design problem. Inserting this property back in the optimal pricing scheme, we conclude that a self-financial constraint, if active, always provokes an inferior solution, a smaller frequency and, under some circumstances, larger than optimal buses.