防止脱轨的新策略

介绍了防止脱轨的有效策略，并着重对脱轨原因分析方法以及技术进步对脱轨原因调查所起的积极帮助作用等进行了阐述。运用实践证明，早期发现是防止脱轨的关键，而一个具有系统性的总体方案，以及具有责任心的专业人员或专业队伍，则是成功的脱轨原因查找及其改进方案的根本所在。     

Walking infrastructure design assessment by continuous space dynamic assignment modeling

For the planning and design of walking infrastructure, characterized by the fact that the pedestrians can choose their paths freely in two‐dimensional space, applicability of traditional discrete network models is limited. This contribution puts forward an approach for user‐optimal dynamic assignment in continuous time and space for analyzing for instance walking infrastructure in a two‐dimensional space. Contrary to network‐based approaches, the theory allows the traffic units to choose from an infinite non‐countable set of paths through the considered space. The approach first determines the continuous paths using a path choice model. Then, origin‐destination flows are assigned and traffic conditions are calculated. The approach to determine a user‐optimal assignment is heuristic and consists of a sequence of all‐or‐nothing assignments. An application example is presented, showing dynamic user equilibrium traffic flows through a realistic transfer station. The example is aimed at illustrating the dynamic aspects of the modeling approach, such as anticipation on expected flow conditions, and predicted behavior upon catching or missing a connection.     

Guidelines for samplers: measuring a change in behaviour from before and after surveys

This paper addresses the issue of using before and after surveys to evaluate behavioural changes in response to transport policies and investments, a procedure that, we argue is done far too rarely in this profession. Further, it demonstrates very clearly that, in almost all conceivable cases, there are considerable economies to be obtained by using a panel (again, under-utilised in our profession) to undertake evaluation, rather than successive independent cross-sectional surveys. The paper also addresses the critical issue of sample size requirements for measuring changes of a relatively small magnitude in travel behaviour; i.e., to state, with 95% confidence, that if there is a ∂ percent change in behaviour for the sample, there is a ∂ percent ± e percent change in the behaviour of the population, where e is the sampling error. In this paper, we present a method for calculating such sample size requirements from first principles and demonstrate the applicability both hypothetically and then empirically using data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel. The formulation enables designers of before and after surveys to investigate the trade-offs between the statistical accuracy of their predictions and the sample size requirements systematically, without the need to specify ∂ a priori. This latter point is crucial, we argue, because we have limited information on ∂, yet, as we explain here, it drives the sample size requirements using alternative, well-cited approaches for calculating sample sizes to assess behavioural change. The results have important ramifications both for those implementing transport policies intended to produce behavioural change, especially when a cost-benefit evaluation of the policy is desired, and for those interpreting the results reported in previous studies.     

Demand responsive transit and the integration of D/R systems with traditional transit

This paper provides a background of the development of demand-responsive transit in small communities in the U.S.A. It also backgrounds traditional transit in metropolitan areas of the United States and outlines its deficiencies in terms of today's urban sprawl and in terms of today's society in metropolitan areas. Urban sprawl has developed city-like areas around big cities, but with lower population densities. Highways and roads were built. Cars were mass-produced. These new populations have never had an alternative to the private car. Today's society includes an ever-increasing number of senior citizens and handicapped persons. Senior citizens find it difficult to get to fixed-route bus stops; handicapped persons have difficulty in boarding regular buses and wheelchair persons cannot even get on board. Particular emphasis is placed upon the examination of the development of demand-responsive transit in metropolitan Rochester, U.S.A. and a Demonstration Project, sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration of the United States Department of Transportation. The paper also examines and makes reference to the results of integrated transit in Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. The Demonstration Project has several key objectives, the principal one of which is the integration of demand-responsive transit with the fixed-route element of traditional transit. Other important objectives of the demonstration are the balancing of peak and off-peak service so as to improve the overall utilization of resources, increase transit coverage, regular (not special) service for the elderly and the handicapped, the utilization of a computer in dispatching, digital communications, and marketing and promotional techniques.     

Measuring tradeoffs in carpool driving arrangement preferences

In each of two experiments evaluations were obtained of alternative carpooling situations varying in driving arrangement, size of carpool, distance traveled, and amount of time to pick up and deliver passengers. College students in Experiment I rated each situation in terms of comfort, economy, convenience and overall desirability. Shared driving emerged as the most desirable driving arrangement, and results suggested that this was due to a tradeoff of the perceived economic advantages of being the driver and the perceived greater comfort and convenience of being a rider. Driving all the time was the least preferred arrangement for females, and riding all the time was the least preferred arrangement for males. Desirability ratings decreased as carpool size increased, and this was interpreted to indicate that perceived economic advantages of large pools were outweighed by large perceived decreases in comfort and convenience. The major results of Experiment I were replicated in Experiment II, using university employees who were either currently in carpools or seeking to find carpools. Results are discussed in terms of the practical implications of the findings concerning driving arrangement and carpool size preferences, and in terms of the usefulness of controlled experimental designs for understanding the processes-underlying ride-sharing attitudes and behavior.     

Developing Metro Systems in the People’s Republic of China: Policy and Gaps

Rapid urbanization has taken place in China since the Open Policy in 1978. In face of the growing demand for mobility in large cities, new metro systems were developed in large cities like Guangzhou and Shanghai. At present, there are seven cities with 10 metro lines under construction. What are the policy issues and major challenges of developing metro systems in China? This paper systematically reviews the current situation and highlights three major gaps that Chinese cities have to overcome in planning metro systems. They are the technology gap, the financing gap and the affordability gap. A discussion of these gaps in the Chinese context leads us to the conclusion that early planning and careful studies are important in the development of metro systems in China. Moreover, the existing official criteria (population and economic power) for approving the building of metro systems are insufficient and should be supplemented by more vigorous evaluation criteria.     

Oceanic CO2 uptake and biogeochemical variability during the formation of the Eastern North Atlantic Central water under two contrasting NAO scenarios

Long-term variability of the biogeochemical properties during the formation of central waters in the Eastern North Atlantic were analyzed between 42–47°N and 10–20°W from the dataset gathered during the Galicia VII (GVII) and C. Darwin 58/59 (CD58/59) cruises. These cruises that showed important changes in the thermohaline properties and the nutrient abundance of the upper layers were carried out under contrasting conditions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The different climate forcing led a meridional shift of the transition zone between the formation regions of subpolar and subtropical Eastern North Atlantic Central Water (ENACWp and ENACWt, respectively). This displacement conditioned the presence of each ENACW in the study region and so the thermohaline and biogeochemical properties. The effect of the observed variability at decadal scale on the air–sea CO₂ gradient (ΔfCO₂) and exchange (F_CO2) was analyzed using 1D model approach throughout 11 weekly-steps that simulated the development of a spring bloom during the shoaling of the mixed layer. The outputs of the model showed an intensification of the ocean CO₂ uptake due to higher biological CO₂ drawdown, during positive NAO conditions and its weakening under negative NAO influence.