Transit service quality analysis using cluster analysis and decision trees: a step forward to personalized marketing in public transportation

A transit service quality study based on cluster analysis was performed to extract detailed customer profiles sharing similar appraisals concerning the service. This approach made it possible to detect specific requirements and needs regarding the quality of service and to personalize the marketing strategy. Data from various customer satisfaction surveys conducted by the Transport Consortium of Granada (Spain) were analyzed to distinguish these groups; a decision tree methodology was used to identify the most important service quality attributes influencing passengers’ overall evaluations. Cluster analysis identified four groups of passengers. Comparisons using decision trees among the overall sample of all users and the different groups of passengers identified by cluster analysis led to the discovery of differences in the key attributes encompassed by perceived quality.     

形位精度统计分析中常值系统性误差的确定

本文分析了常值系统性误差的传统确定方法不适用于形位精度统计分析的原因,并提出了形位精度统计分析中常值系统性误差的确定方法。     

Multi-agent model predictive control of signaling split in urban traffic networks

The operation of large dynamic systems such as urban traffic networks remains a challenge in control engineering to a great extent due to their sheer size, intrinsic complexity, and nonlinear behavior. Recently, control engineers have looked for unconventional means for modeling and control of complex dynamic systems, in particular the technology of multi-agent systems whose appeal stems from their composite nature, flexibility, and scalability. This paper contributes to this evolving technology by proposing a framework for multi-agent control of linear dynamic systems, which decomposes a centralized model predictive control problem into a network of coupled, but small sub-problems that are solved by the distributed agents. Theoretical results ensure convergence of the distributed iterations to a globally optimal solution. The framework is applied to the signaling split control of traffic networks. Experiments conducted with simulation software indicate that the multi-agent framework attains performance comparable to conventional control. The main advantages of the multi-agent framework are its graceful extension and localized reconfiguration, which require adjustments only in the control strategies of the agents in the vicinity.     

Forecasting vs. observed outturn: Studying choice in faster inter-island connections

Passenger demand and, in particular, mode choice between the islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife has experienced important changes in the last decade. In 2005 the jetfoil, which had been the dominant mode for many years, was replaced by a slower but cheaper fast ferry service. This induced important changes in the market shares of all competing modes (airplane, slow ferry and another fast ferry with a shorter in-sea time, but needing a bus connection in land). We estimated several discrete choice models, with data collected two years before, with the aim to test their forecasting performance in relation with observed behaviour. Interestingly, we found that an easy to interpret multinomial logit model allowing for systematic taste variations performed best in forecasting. We also discuss some model assumptions related to forecasting that allow replicating the effects of introducing a new mode more accurately. We finally show how the model can be used to examine the social benefits of a related infrastructure improvement project in the island of Gran Canaria.     

Multi‐criteria analysis procedure for sustainable mobility evaluation in urban areas

This paper proposes a procedure to evaluate sustainable mobility in urban areas. A set of indicators according to three dimensions of sustainability, i.e., environment, economics, and social aspects, are proposed to evaluate mobility in urban areas. The sustainable mobility evaluation is based on an Index calculated through a weighted multi‐criteria combination procedure. A group of specialists in Brazil was involved in the development of the Index by defining the weights for the criteria. An application of the methodology in the city of Belo Horizonte, capital of the State of Minas Gerais, with 2.24 million inhabitants, is presented to validate the methodology.     

Estimating the willingness to pay and value of risk reduction for car occupants in the road environment

In recent years there has been a re-focus on the valuation of a statistical life from the ex post or human capital method to an ex ante willingness to pay (WTP) approach. This is in part a recognition that we may have been undervaluing the cost of fatalities and injuries to society associated with crashes, but also a strong belief in the need to focus on establishing the amount, ex ante, that individuals are willing to pay to reduce the risk of exposure to circumstances that might lead to death or degree of injury on the road network. This study has developed a framework in which to identify the degree of preference heterogeneity in willingness to pay by individuals who are drivers or passengers in cars to avoid being killed or injured. A stated choice experiment approach is developed. The empirical setting is a choice of route for a particular trip that a sample of individuals periodically undertakes in Australia. The particular trip is described in enough detail to provide the respondent with a familiar market environment, providing all the relevant background information required for making a decision. Mixed logit models are estimated to obtain the marginal (dis)utilities associated with each influence on the choice amongst the attribute packages offered in the stated choice scenarios. These estimates are used to obtain the WTP distributions for fatality and injury avoidance, which are then aggregated to obtain estimates of the value of risk reduction (VRR), of which the fatality class is also known as the value of a statistical life (VSL).     

Estimation of trailer off-tracking using visual odometry

High-capacity vehicles have been shown to be highly effective in reducing emissions associated with road freight transport. However, the reduced manoeuvrability of long vehicles often necessitates the use of active trailer steering. Path-following trailer steering systems are very effective in this regard, but are currently limited to on-highway applications due to the manner in which trailer off-tracking is estimated. In this work, a novel trailer off-tracking measurement concept is introduced which is independent of wheel slip and ground surface conditions, and requires no additional sensor measurements or parameter data from the tractor. The concept utilises a stereo camera pair affixed to the trailer and a visual odometry-based algorithm to calculate off-tracking. The concept was evaluated in detailed simulation and full-scale vehicle tests, demonstrating its feasibility and highlighting some important characteristics. RMS measurement errors of 0.11–0.12?m (3.3–3.6%) were obtained in a challenging visual environment.     

Using the Ecopath with Ecosim Modeling Approach to Understand the Effects of Watershed-based Management Actions in Coastal Ecosystems

Resource managers are often tasked with identifying and assessing the potential impacts of management actions on the biotic communities under their care. When the management activities directly influence a single species of interest, managers can turn to a variety of models to aid in their understanding of potential changes to that population. However, as ecosystem-based management becomes more widely accepted, managers will have to understand how proposed actions will impact entire biotic communities, through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Thus, there is a need for ecosystem models that account for both trophic and non-trophic interactions, and that can be relatively easily used to assess a variety of management scenarios. We reviewed the available literature regarding incorporation of eutrophication and other anthropogenic impacts into Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), one of the more widely used trophic ecosystem modeling frameworks. We found that a number of mechanisms of varying complexity have been used to include these stressors in models, providing managers with a suite of options that can be used to complement their existing management options as they seek to understand the impacts of human interactions on the natural environment.     

Impact of scale increase of container ships on the generalised chain cost

In recent years, an increase in the size of the container ships could be observed. The question is how these larger ships will influence the total generalised costs from a port of loading to a destination in the European hinterland. The second question is whether a scale increase of the container ships on other loops, such as a loop from the United States to Europe, has the same impact on the generalised chain costs as on the loop from Asia to Europe. A derived question is which element of the total chain has the highest importance, and whether this balance varies as the ship size changes. In this article, a model is developed that allows answering the above research questions. The model is designed to simulate the cost of a complete loop of a container ship and of a chain that uses that same loop. For the chain cost simulation, the maritime part is determined by the loop. From the ports of loading and unloading, the port container handling and the hinterland transportation costs are also integrated. The model also allows calculating the total chain cost from a point of origin (either a hinterland region or a port) to a destination point (also a port or a hinterland region). An actual container loop of a container shipping company can be introduced in the model. An application is made to two existing container loops, namely from Asia respectively the United States to Europe. It turns out that changing ship does indeed lead to economies of scale, but also that the impact is larger on the Asia–Europe connection than on the US–Europe connection. Furthermore, the maritime component has the biggest share in the total chain cost, but as ship size increases, the shares start getting closer to each other. This research contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First of all, it quantifies the impact of the scale increase of container ships throughout the total chain. Second, this is done from a bottom-up engineering modelling approach.     

The expansion of the Panama Canal and its impact on global CO2 emissions from ships

As part of the discussions of the environmental effects of the expansion of the Canal through the construction of a third set of locks, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) began to consider measuring the impact of the project on global CO₂ emissions in 2006. The hypothesis PCA intends to investigate whether the third set of locks will prompt reductions in total world CO₂ emissions or not. The Canal's third set of locks will prevent reaching the saturation point, and will avoid diversion of traffic to potentially longer alternative routes, such as the Suez Canal and Cape Horn, thereby reducing distances and fuel consumption. In addition, the widening of the Canal may promote the construction of modern-type post-Panamax vessels, making transportation of freight more efficient through economies of scale. This white paper will initiate an exploratory research on the subject based on two possible scenarios: an existing Canal and an expanded Canal. Both scenarios will take physical distances, closest alternative routes, as well as fuel consumption of vessels and other relevant modes of transportation into consideration.