Estimating the robustness of questionnaire results: lessons from a mixed-mode survey of expectations for tele-working and road-based business travel

The robustness of questionnaire results to various forms of bias are explored in the context of a dual-mode (web and hardcopy) survey of employers’ anticipations of levels of employee commuting and business travel activity under a range of future ICT scenarios. The questionnaire incorporated several innovative features which, together with the dual-mode format, allowed an unusually wide range of analyses. For example: the robustness of respondents’ opinions was tested by examining the effect of incorporating alternative versions of a briefing text, one being very positive and one very negative, about the role of ICT; instrument bias was identified via detailed comparison of the results from the two versions of the questionnaire; and the impact of exogenous factors which are often ignored or taken as constant was assessed via special supplementary questions. Analysis showed that the robustness of opinions and expectations varied and was influenced by respondent characteristics, and that results from the two versions of the questionnaire differed significantly. It is concluded that opinions and expectations are less robust, and questionnaire results are more subject to bias and myopic interpretation, than is generally recognised and that web-based surveys seem particularly vulnerable to sampling bias. Methods are suggested for measuring robustness, for reducing bias and for validating and contextualising results. The use of contrasting briefing texts is recommended as a means of establishing the robustness of opinions and expectations while supplementary questions are recommended for validating and contextualising SP and SE exercises.

Second best toll and capacity optimisation in networks: solution algorithm and policy implications

This paper looks at the first and second best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting algorithm for solving the second best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (Netw. Spat. Econ., 4(2): 161–179, 2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in conjunction with investments in the network.

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Regulation of the informal transport sector in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: welfare impacts and policy analysis

In Brazil, the explosion of informal transport activity during the past decade has had profound effects on formal public transport systems and is a source of great controversy in the urban transportation sector. A variety of policies have been proposed to manage the growth of the sector. This study seeks to understand how proposed policies will impact the users of these systems. A corridor in Rio de Janeiro with substantial informal activity was used as a case study. Measures of welfare changes in a discrete choice framework were used to estimate proposed policies’ impacts on users. Eleven candidate policies were evaluated, ranging from the eradication of the informal modes and investment in formal modes, to the legalization of the informal modes. Benefits were compared with costs and the distribution of benefits across income classes was explored. Net benefits from some policies were found to be substantial. Legalizing the informal sector was found to benefit users slightly but further investments in the sector are probably inefficient. Users benefited most from improvements in formal mass transit modes, at roughly 100–200 dollars per commuter per year. Finally, policies to foster a competitive environment for the delivery of both informal and formal services were shown to benefit users about 100 dollars per commuter per year. Together, the regulation of the informal sector and investments in the formal sector serve to reinforce the movement towards competitive concessions for services and help reduce the impacts of cartelization and costly in-road competition.

Full Duplex Communications for Next Generation Cellular Networks: The Capacity Gain

Full duplex communication highly improves spectrum efficiency of a wireless communication link. However, when it is applied to a cellular network, the capacity gain from this technology remains unknown. The reason is that full duplex communication changes the aggregate interference experienced by each communication link in cellular networks. In this paper, the capacity gain from full duplex communication is studied for cellular networks of 4G and beyond, where the same frequency channel is adopted in each cell. A two-layer Poisson point process (PPP) is adopted to model the network topology, and stochastic geometry is employed to derive the coverage probability and the average capacity of typical link in a cellular network. On the basis of these derived parameters, the capacity gain from full duplex communication is determined. Numerical results reveal that without mutual interference cancellation (MIC), the capacity gain is small under various power levels; with perfect MIC at base stations, the capacity gain can exceed 60%; with imperfect MIC at base stations, the capacity gain decreases quickly even with a slight drop of MIC performance.     

Decomposing and Cluster Refinement Design Method for Application-Specific Network-on-Chips

Along with higher and higher integration of intellectual properties (IPs) on a single chip, traditional bus-based system-on-chips (SoC) meets several design difficulties (such as low scalability, high power consumption, packet latency and clock tree problem). As a promising solution, network-on-chips (NoC) has been proposed and widely studied. In this work, a novel algorithm for NoC topology synthesis, which is decomposing and cluster refinement (DCR) algorithm, has been proposed to minimize the total power consumption of application-specific NoC. This algorithm is composed of two stages: decomposing with cluster generation, and cluster refinement. For partitioning and cluster generation, an initial low-power solution for NoC topology is generated. For cluster refinement, the clustering is optimized by performing floorplan to further reduce power consumption. Meanwhile, a good tradeoff between power consumption and CPU time can be achieved. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing work.     

Research on Web Page Classification Method Based on Query Log

Web page classification is an important application in many fields of Internet information retrieval, such as providing directory classification and vertical search. Methods based on query log which is a light weight version of Web page classification can avoid Web content crawling, making it relatively high in efficiency, but the sparsity of user click data makes it difficult to be used directly for constructing a classifier. To solve this problem, we explore the semantic relations among different queries through word embedding, and propose three improved graph structure classification algorithms. To reflect the semantic relevance between queries, we map the user query into the low-dimensional space according to its query vector in the first step. Then, we calculate the uniform resource locator (URL) vector according to the relationship between the query and URL. Finally, we use the improved label propagation algorithm (LPA) and the bipartite graph expansion algorithm to classify the unlabeled Web pages. Experiments show that our methods make about 20% more increase in F1-value than other Web page classification methods based on query log.     

Dynamic Behavior of Two Part Towing Cable System During Turning

An improved numerical method is used to simulate the dynamic behavior of a two part towing cable systems during turnings. In U turns and full turns, periodical heave motions are found both for the towed vehicle and for the depressor. Periodic motions of the subsea units and of the cable surface tension are closely related to the turning parameters, such as turning velocity and turning radius. System parameters, such as length of the second cable and the vehicle hydrodynamics, also damp turning instability.