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111.
A time-domain technique for estimating wave-induced ship hull bending moment from ship motion measurements is presented. This technique is developed to improve hull response monitoring systems. Artificial neural networks are used to model the time-domain relationship between the wave-induced vertical bending moment and the coupled heave and pitch motions. The application of the proposed technique is validated using experimental data. 相似文献
112.
Analysis of factors that may be essential in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners
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This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
113.
In this paper, three innovative car-sharing systems for urban areas are proposed, based on fleets of individual intelligent vehicles with three service characteristics: instant access, open-ended reservations and one-way trips. These features provide high flexibility but create an uneven distribution of vehicles among stations. Therefore, relocation of vehicles must be performed. Three different system procedures are proposed: in the first system, relocations are performed by users; in the other two, vehicles relocate automatically, thanks to their automation. In the first two systems, vehicles are accessible only at stations, whereas in the third they are also accessible along roads. In order to provide transport managers with a tool to test systems in different realities, an object-oriented simulator is developed. The simulation provides outputs of system performance, in terms of user waiting times and system efficiency. The proposed systems are simulated for the city of Genoa, in Italy, and a comparative analysis is presented. 相似文献
114.
This paper looks at the first and second best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy
and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting
algorithm for solving the second best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The
approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (Netw.
Spat. Econ., 4(2): 161–179, 2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second
best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while
reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second
best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also
show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in
conjunction with investments in the network.
Andrew Koh Prior to joining the Institute for Transport Studies in December 2005, Andrew was employed for number of years as a consultant in highway assignment modelling. He is an economist with wide ranging research interests in transport economics as well as evolutionary computation heuristics such as genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation and differential evolution. Simon Shepherd At the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. Recently he has focussed on optimisation of road user charging schemes and is currently working on optimal cordon design and system dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. Agachai Sumalee Agachai is currently an Assistant Professor at Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University (). He obtained a Ph.D degree with the thesis entitled “Optimal Road Pricing Scheme Design” at Leeds University in 2004. His research areas cover transport network modeling and optimization, stochastic network modeling, network reliability analysis, and road pricing. Agachai is currently an associate editor of Networks and Spatial Economics. 相似文献
Agachai SumaleeEmail: |
Andrew Koh Prior to joining the Institute for Transport Studies in December 2005, Andrew was employed for number of years as a consultant in highway assignment modelling. He is an economist with wide ranging research interests in transport economics as well as evolutionary computation heuristics such as genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation and differential evolution. Simon Shepherd At the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. Recently he has focussed on optimisation of road user charging schemes and is currently working on optimal cordon design and system dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. Agachai Sumalee Agachai is currently an Assistant Professor at Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University (). He obtained a Ph.D degree with the thesis entitled “Optimal Road Pricing Scheme Design” at Leeds University in 2004. His research areas cover transport network modeling and optimization, stochastic network modeling, network reliability analysis, and road pricing. Agachai is currently an associate editor of Networks and Spatial Economics. 相似文献
115.
Dongjoo Park Laurence R. Rilett Byron J. Gajewski Clifford H. Spiegelman Changho Choi 《Transportation》2009,36(1):77-95
With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers
have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current
conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal
aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route
travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology
explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed
for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation
size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor,
(2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel
time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston,
Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It
was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.
相似文献
Changho ChoiEmail: |
116.
In Brazil, the explosion of informal transport activity during the past decade has had profound effects on formal public transport
systems and is a source of great controversy in the urban transportation sector. A variety of policies have been proposed
to manage the growth of the sector. This study seeks to understand how proposed policies will impact the users of these systems.
A corridor in Rio de Janeiro with substantial informal activity was used as a case study. Measures of welfare changes in a
discrete choice framework were used to estimate proposed policies’ impacts on users. Eleven candidate policies were evaluated,
ranging from the eradication of the informal modes and investment in formal modes, to the legalization of the informal modes.
Benefits were compared with costs and the distribution of benefits across income classes was explored. Net benefits from some
policies were found to be substantial. Legalizing the informal sector was found to benefit users slightly but further investments
in the sector are probably inefficient. Users benefited most from improvements in formal mass transit modes, at roughly 100–200
dollars per commuter per year. Finally, policies to foster a competitive environment for the delivery of both informal and
formal services were shown to benefit users about 100 dollars per commuter per year. Together, the regulation of the informal
sector and investments in the formal sector serve to reinforce the movement towards competitive concessions for services and
help reduce the impacts of cartelization and costly in-road competition.
相似文献
Ronaldo BalassianoEmail: |
117.
Toshiyuki Yamamoto 《Transportation》2009,36(3):351-366
The interactions among different types of vehicle ownership including car, motorcycle and bicycle are examined by developing
simultaneous vehicle ownership models in this study. Large scale person trip survey data for Osaka metropolitan area, Japan
and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia are used for empirical analysis. The results suggest that population density at residential area
significantly and negatively affects car ownership for both areas, and that the effects are larger for Osaka metropolitan
area than for Kuala Lumpur. Also, bicycle ownership becomes higher at higher population density area for Osaka area, while
higher at lower population density area for Kuala Lumpur, which represents the different usage patterns of bicycle between
the two areas.
相似文献
Toshiyuki YamamotoEmail: |
118.
When a new public transport service is introduced it would be valuable for public authorities, financing organisations and
transport operators to know how long it will take for people to start to use the service and what factors influence this.
This paper presents results from research analysing the time taken for residents living close to a new guided bus service
to start to use (or adopt) the service. Data was obtained from a sample of residents on whether they used the new service
and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modelling has been used to analyse
how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine
what factors influence this. It is found that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use
it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to
use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. Allowance
for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service was tested using a
split population model (SPD) model. The SPD model indicates that 36% of residents will never use the new service and is informative
in differentiating factors that influence whether Route 20 is used and when it is used.
Kiron Chatterjee has been a Senior Lecturer at the University of the West of England, Bristol, since 2003 and previously was at the University of Southampton. Currently, a main focus of his research is on longitudinal analysis of travel behaviour to improve policy analysis. Kang-Rae Ma received a PhD in Planning from University College London. He worked at the University of the West of England, Bristol, and the Korea Transport Institute before he joined Chung-Ang University as an Assistant Professor. His research interests include modelling of travel behaviour and urban excess commuting. 相似文献
Kang-Rae MaEmail: |
Kiron Chatterjee has been a Senior Lecturer at the University of the West of England, Bristol, since 2003 and previously was at the University of Southampton. Currently, a main focus of his research is on longitudinal analysis of travel behaviour to improve policy analysis. Kang-Rae Ma received a PhD in Planning from University College London. He worked at the University of the West of England, Bristol, and the Korea Transport Institute before he joined Chung-Ang University as an Assistant Professor. His research interests include modelling of travel behaviour and urban excess commuting. 相似文献
119.
The robustness of questionnaire results to various forms of bias are explored in the context of a dual-mode (web and hardcopy)
survey of employers’ anticipations of levels of employee commuting and business travel activity under a range of future ICT
scenarios. The questionnaire incorporated several innovative features which, together with the dual-mode format, allowed an
unusually wide range of analyses. For example: the robustness of respondents’ opinions was tested by examining the effect
of incorporating alternative versions of a briefing text, one being very positive and one very negative, about the role of
ICT; instrument bias was identified via detailed comparison of the results from the two versions of the questionnaire; and
the impact of exogenous factors which are often ignored or taken as constant was assessed via special supplementary questions.
Analysis showed that the robustness of opinions and expectations varied and was influenced by respondent characteristics,
and that results from the two versions of the questionnaire differed significantly. It is concluded that opinions and expectations
are less robust, and questionnaire results are more subject to bias and myopic interpretation, than is generally recognised
and that web-based surveys seem particularly vulnerable to sampling bias. Methods are suggested for measuring robustness,
for reducing bias and for validating and contextualising results. The use of contrasting briefing texts is recommended as
a means of establishing the robustness of opinions and expectations while supplementary questions are recommended for validating
and contextualising SP and SE exercises.
Peter Bonsall Professor of Transport Planning at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include: use of innovative data sources, microsimulation, multi-criteria appraisal of policy interventions, travellers’ perception of modal attributes, their ability to cope with uncertainty and complexity and their response to new information and charges. Jeremy Shires Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include behavioural modelling, the impact of “soft factors” on travel, stated preference design and public transport demand modelling. 相似文献
Peter BonsallEmail: |
Peter Bonsall Professor of Transport Planning at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include: use of innovative data sources, microsimulation, multi-criteria appraisal of policy interventions, travellers’ perception of modal attributes, their ability to cope with uncertainty and complexity and their response to new information and charges. Jeremy Shires Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include behavioural modelling, the impact of “soft factors” on travel, stated preference design and public transport demand modelling. 相似文献
120.
Lidia P. Kostyniuk 《Transportation》2009,36(6):641-642