Analysis of travel activity determinants using robust statistics

This study investigates travel behavior determinants based on a multiday travel survey conducted in the region of Ghent, Belgium. Due to the limited data reliability of the data sample and the influence of outliers exerted on classical principal component analysis, robust principal component analysis (ROBPCA) is employed in order to reveal the explanatory variables responsible for most of the variability. Interpretation of the results is eased by utilizing ROSPCA. The application of ROSPCA reveals six distinct principal components where each is determined by a few variables. Among others, our results suggest a key role of variable categories such as journey purpose-related impedance and journey inherent constraints. Surprisingly, the variables associated with journey timing turn out to be less important. Finally, our findings reveal the critical role of outliers in travel behavior analysis. This suggests that a systematic understanding of how outliers contribute to observed mobility behavior patterns, as derived from travel surveys, is needed. In this regard, the proposed methods serve for processing raw data typically used in activity-based modelling.     

Are travelers substituting between transportation network companies (TNC) and public buses? A case study in Pittsburgh

Transportation - Transportation network companies (TNC) provide mobility services that are influencing travel behavior in unknown ways due to limited TNC trip-level data. How they interact with...     

Appraisal of rail investment projects: recent British experience

There has long been conflict over the degree to which railways should follow commercial or social investment criteria. This paper outlines the components of a comprehensive social cost‐benefit analysis of railway investment, and then describes the current approach in Britain. British Rail investment proposals are subject to a purely financial appraisal, although in the subsidized sectors of the railway this is subject to the proviso that a ‘broadly comparable’ level of service should be maintained. Local authorities and private operators are able to apply for a central government grant towards the cost of schemes they sponsor. But grant is only payable in respect of external benefits—that is, benefits other than to public transport users. Sponsors are also expected to seek contributions from private developers wherever possible. The difficulties to which this approach leads are discussed, and illustrated with two case studies of actual schemes. In one, it appears that failing to consider disbenefits to bus operators (and in turn to users of bus services) could lead to investments being undertaken which are not justified. In the other, a scheme which yields a high Net Present Value could not go ahead, in the form that we evaluated, because there is no way of recouping enough of the user benefits as revenue. Both are examples of the sort of distorting effect on decision‐making the current regime may have.     

Harmonizing heavy goods vehicle taxes in Europe: a British view

One of the biggest unresolved problems regarding the completion of the free internal transport market within the European community is the problem of harmonization of taxation on the road haulage industry. As the highest tax country, Britain might be expected to have to reduce its level of taxes as part of any harmonization.

This paper considers the current methodology of the British Department of Transport regarding the allocation of the track and external costs of road transport, in the light of developments in methodology and experience elsewhere in Western Europe and North America. We find a number of reasons for believing that, far from overstating the marginal social cost of use of roads by the road haulage industry, the current British approach actually understates it. Thus any move towards harmonizing tax levels may reduce taxes in Britain at a time when they should be increasing.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain: a rejoinder

In our critique for the Buses White Paper, we argued that ‘competition for licences’ could achieve most of the benefits of competition without the major disadvantages of ‘competition on the road’. In response to the comments of Beesley and Glaister, we explain how comprehensive franchising of good and bad routes alike would encourage effective competition, whilst providing conditions for the transparent continuation of cross‐subsidy where that was the choice of the local authority in question. We correct their misrepresentation of our arguments on the desirability of cross‐subsidy and on the case for minibuses, and explain why we believe that such cost savings as are achieved will be mainly at the expense of staff or customer service. Finally, we restate the case for believing that a unified planned timetable will provide a better service for a given level of resources than will uncoordinated competitive services.     

Policies towards suburban rail services in Britain and the federal republic of Germany — a comparison

This paper compares the major role played by suburban rail (S‐Bahn) systems in West German cities with the much more limited role of rail in the British conurbations. Clearly, the difference owes much to the institutional and financial arrangements in the two countries. In West Germany, large amounts of earmarked funds have been available for rail investment, whilst the Federal government has been willing to shoulder much of the burden of operating subsidies. The Verkehrsverbund has emerged as a highly effective way of coordinating fares and services without direct ownership of any mode of transport. By contrast in Britain funds for rail investment have been much more limited. Progress with integration has been far slower, and is threatened by current government policies regarding both bus deregulation and the abolition of the Metropolitan county councils. Whilst rail is firmly established in German cities, its future in Britain looks bleak.     

European rail reform and passenger services - the next steps

Whilst the emphasis of European Union rail legislation to date has been on freight, measures such as separation of infrastructure from operations, infrastructure charging regimes and regulation have major implications for the passenger sector. But implementation of these measures in many countries has been inadequate. Crucial to overcoming these problems is the establishment of strong independent regulators in all member states. There is currently no requirement for competition in the passenger sector except for international services, but there is experience both of open access for commercial services and of competitive franchising. However, even where permitted open access competition has been very limited and there is evidence that undesirable cream skimming may be a problem. Experience of franchising has generally been positive, but in some cases it has failed to drive down costs. It is concluded that a combination of more sensible risk sharing, a determination not to renegotiate, longer franchises and limited open access competition where justified by benefits is likely to be the best way forward.     

Designing computable general equilibrium models for transportation applications

This paper presents a review of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model applications for spatial economic and transport interaction modelling. This paper has three objectives (1) To deliver an up to date and comprehensive literature review on applications of CGE models in transportation, (2) To analyze the different methodological approaches and their theoretical and practical advantages and disadvantages, and (3) To ultimately provide guidance on designing CGE models for various transportation analyses. The content of the paper is as follows: first, a brief introduction to CGE models is provided. The history of CGE models is traced, ranging from their origins and seminal applications in economics, to their eventual adoption in transportation research. This is followed by a comprehensive review of the application of CGE models to transport projects and policies. Various applications in transportation are reviewed in terms of their intended application, as well as their treatment of space and time. Finally, these applications are contrasted with respect to their methodological approaches, with a close examination of various influential model choices. Here, the essential design choices made within these model applications are explained and debated, to clearly elaborate on the workings of the models and the design choices facing CGE model developers.     

Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria,Australia

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) potentially increase vehicle travel by reducing travel and parking costs and by providing improved mobility to those who are too young to drive or older people. The increase in vehicle travel could be generated by both trip diversion from other modes and entirely new trips. Existing studies however tend to overlook AVs’ impacts on entirely new trips. There is a need to develop a methodology for estimating possible impacts of AVs on entirely new trips across all age groups. This paper explores the impacts of AVs on car trips using a case study of Victoria, Australia. A new methodology for estimating entirely new trips associated with AVs is proposed by measuring gaps in travel need at different life stages. Results show that AVs would increase daily trips by 4.14% on average. The 76+ age group would have the largest increase of 18.5%, followed by the 18–24 age group and the 12–17 age group with 14.6 and 11.1% respectively. If car occupancy remains constant in AV scenarios, entirely new trips and trip diversions from public transport and active modes would lead to a 7.31% increase in car trips. However increases in car travel are substantially magnified by reduced car occupancy rates, a trend evidenced throughout the world. Car occupancy would need to increase by at least 5.3–7.3% to keep car trips unchanged in AV scenarios.