Transport in developing and emerging nations

One perspective on the allocation of transport investments by public authorities is offered by the so‐called ‘pork barrel’ model, whereby politicians and political parties allocate public investment spatially in such a way as to gain electoral support from localities so benefited. The paper introduces this model and discusses its attractions and problems in the case of the transport sector. A review of the modest number of published examples of this approach is offered before a detailed case study considers the case of railway investment in Nelson, New Zealand.     

Development of Beach Analysis Tools for Caribbean Small Islands

Beach erosion presents a hazard to coastal tourism facilities, which provide the main economic thrust for most Caribbean small islands (CSIs). Ad hoc approaches to addressing this problem have given way to the integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) approach, which recommends data collection, analysis of coastal processes, and assessment of impacts. UNESCO's Coast and Beach Stability in the Caribbean (COSALC) project has provided most CSIs with an opportunity to monitor their beaches and collect over 10 years of data. Research has been directed at integrating these data with geographic information systems (GIS) and other information technologies to develop a prototype beach analysis and management system (BAMS) for CSIs. This article presents the results of phase I development of this effort, which includes the development of tools for integrating spatial and non-spatial coastal data, estimating long-term beach erosion/accretion and sand volume change trends at individual beaches, identifying erosion-sensitive beaches, and mapping beach erosion hazards. The Southeast Peninsula, St. Kitts, is used as a case study to develop these tools and demonstrate system functionality.     

Fundamentals of discrete multimodal choice modelling

Abstract

In this paper an overview is given of the most relevant issues relating to the application of multimodal choice models, with particular emphasis on disaggregate modal split models. The paper considers questions of data, such as type of data, alternative sampling strategies and problems of measurement; and modelling issues, such as model specification and estimation, including a good presentation of the statistical techniques'available. The paper also addresses the aggregation problem, which lies at the heart of one of today's most hotly contested debates: whether to use aggregate or disaggregate models for policy analysis, and in which circumstances.     

The maximum shipping capacity of the Suez Canal

This paper considers the determination of the maximum shipping capacity of the Suez canal. Initially, some assumptions are made in order to calculate the ‘theoretical’ maximum capacity in terms of ‘standard ships’. This last term defines ships which transit the Canal at a given speed and at a given time interval from the vessel ahead and astern.

Data has been collected from the Canal Zone, the analysis of which provides the necessary information regarding speeds of vessels at different sections of the Canal, time gaps between different classes of ship at different nodes of the Canal, and relationships between time widths of convoys and numbers of ships in those convoys at different points of the Canal.

This data has then been used to calculate the maximum capacity of the Canal in terms of ‘real ships’. For that purpose four schemes have been devised, each taking a different mix of categories of ships. A sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to investigate the effect of each class of ship on the real maximum shipping capacity of the Canal. The last two schemes take into consideration the effect of the future introduction of supertankers.     

Road pricing—some of the more neglected theoretical and policy implications

The intention of this paper has been to raise some doubts about the extent to which the control of congestion is understood, not as an engineering problem, but as a socio‐economic one concerned with making the most appropriate use of scarce resources.

Despite some doubts, it seems that the basic theory, as applied to a highly simplified situation, is technically correct. What is much less clear, however, is the extent to which the acceptance of this analysis as a basis for policy making in the real world is justified. Even if, qualitatively, its implications are correct, there are significant quantitative uncertainties. Given that governments, local and national, are still pouring considerable sums of money, both through subsidies and investment, into the relief of congestion, it is desirable to change this state of affairs. There seems to be ample scope for the transport economist, the transport planner and the transport engineer to contribute to a debate which has a long and, in places, distinguished pedigree, but where the outcome is as yet considerably outstripped by the importance and complexity of the problems which must be solved.

     

The new economic order and African shipping policies

This paper approaches the problem of port labour training in Africa. It examines various aspects of immediate training, apprenticeship training and career training with the implementation of a pedagogic method of training, fully adapted to the specific needs of a port.     

Is Somali piracy a random phenomenon?

This paper investigates whether Somali piracy is a random phenomenon. The investigation takes place in two distinct parts. Its statistical analysis spans over a period of 11 years, from 2000 until 2011 for the first part (flags), and 5 years, from 2007 until 2011 for the second one (crews). The reason is that although prior to 2007 there have been a substantial number of attacks (parameter used in the first part of the research), very few ships were practically pirated (parameter used in the second part) within the same period. Firstly, it is widely believed that Somali pirates select their targets at random and the decision on attacking a vessel registered under a particular flag is unrelated to the participation of the flag state in any of the naval forces operating around the Horn of Africa. The enquiry attempts to assess whether these two common beliefs are supported by historical data and to what extent. Secondly, this paper asks whether there are certain nationalities of crews which are for ethnic and/or cultural reasons more (or less) vulnerable to fall victims of pirates off Somalia. Such groups (if there are any) would in effect indirectly ‘support’ Somali piracy, and for this reason, they could be considered as ‘passively supportive crews’. The analysis focuses on the crew composition of the attacked vessels with special interest cast upon those ships (meaning the crews) which eventually succumbed to Somali pirates and were in the end seajacked.     

Labour market effects in assessing the costs and benefits of road pricing

Traffic congestion and the policies used to combat it have been studied extensively. One area which has received less attention is the secondary impacts of such policies. This paper uses a micro-simulation framework to study the effect on labour markets of road pricing. The key benefit of our chosen methodology is that it allows a simultaneous consideration of both commuting and migration decisions. We show that while welfare gains can be achieved through optimal charging, this may come at the price of decreased integration. This may manifest through either greater centralisation tendencies in population, or through unemployment disparities between regions.     

The Impacts of Recreational Four-Wheel Driving on the Abundance of the Ghost Crab (Ocypode cordimanus) on a Subtropical Sandy Beach in SE Queensland

There is increasing concern regarding the impacts of recreational four-wheel driving (4WDing) on sandy beach environments. The ghost crab Ocypode cordimanus is a widely distributed Australian species that utilizes beaches and dunes for constructing burrows and for foraging. Comparisons of ghost crab abundances (using burrow counts) in areas “open” and “closed” to recreational 4WDing were conducted on exposed sandy beaches on North Stradbroke Island, off the coast of southeast Queensland. Beaches where recreational 4WD activity is present had significantly lower ghost crab abundances than beaches where it is absent. The most plausible reason for this difference in abundance is that ghost crabs are highly vulnerable to being crushed by beach traffic when feeding on the beach at night. To mitigate the impacts of recreational 4WDing on ghost crab population management intervention is needed. Possible changes to the management of recreational 4WD activity include the setting aside of areas free of recreational 4WD activity for the conservation of biodiversity, or a prohibition on driving on the beaches between dusk and dawn. There is also a need for a consistent and transparent approach in Queensland for quantifying and monitoring 4WD activity in sandy beach environments.     

Aspects of the European Maritime Industry

This article discusses the regulatory and operational issues which have recently confronted a number of U.S. ports as a result of their dredging programmers. It describes the environmental concerns which have led community groups to raise legal objections to the traditional practice of ocean dumping of dredged material, the federal/state regulatory framework within which these objections have been considered and recent legislative changes to that framework. The paper describes in some detail the specific case of the Port of New York and New Jersey, which has experienced severe delays in its dredging programme since 1992 (and a resulting loss of business) as well mounting costs for dredged material disposal. The paper concludes that, complicated as the technical problems involving dredged material disposal may be, it is the political and economic issues involved which are likely to be decisive in the eventual outcomes for affected ports.