城市轨道交通换乘枢纽大客流换乘疏散研究

从换乘设备设施、换乘乘客特性和运营组织方案3个方面分析了对大客流换乘疏散的影响。最后,以某地铁换乘站为例,针对列车不同的到达时间间隔对换乘疏散的影响进行仿真研究,并对大客流换乘疏散组织提出建议。     

汽车部件对污染的敏感性

污染敏感性分析是实现对整个机械系统污染控制的重要步骤。通过对污染的分析、测试、建模及模拟分析可有助于减少污染物或微小颗粒对机械系统造成的污染，避免因污染而导致的系统故障。对有关汽车机械系统污染的问题进行了分类讨论并进行了相关性分析，对测试及计算机建模方法进行了论述。给出了污染敏感性分析流程，最后通过几个典型实例阐明了污染敏感性分析的意义。     

Dissolved organic matter in shelf waters off the Ría de Vigo (NW Iberian upwelling system)

Net in situ production and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) have been studied in shelf waters off the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain), as part of a comprehensive hydrographic survey carried out from September 1994 to September 1995 with a fortnight periodicity. DOC and DON correlated well (r=+0.78), the slope of the regression line being 12.0±0.7 mol-C mol-N⁻¹, about twice the Redfieldian slope of particulate organic matter, 6.5±0.2 mol-C mol-N⁻¹ (r=+0.95). Labile DOC and DON accumulated in the upper 50 m during the upwelling season (March–September), mainly after prolonged periods of wind relaxation, when horizontal flows were reduced. This labile material represented 50% and 35% of the total (dissolved+particulate) organic carbon and nitrogen susceptible of microbial utilisation, which assert the key contribution of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to the export of new primary production in the NW Iberian upwelling system. This surface excess in shelf waters appeared to be formed into the highly productive Ría de Vigo (a large coastal indentation) at net rates of 4.4 μM-C d⁻¹ and 1.3 μM-C d⁻¹ in the inner and outer segments of the embayment respectively, and subsequently exported to the shelf. Once in the shelf, simple dilution with the inert DOM pool of recently upwelled Eastern North Atlantic Central Water (ENACW) occurred. Eventually, the DOM excess produced during the upwelling season is exported to the adjacent open ocean waters by the coastal circulation. Conversely, during the unproductive downwelling season (October–February), the lowest DOC and DON levels were recorded and export was prevented by the characteristic downwelling front associated to the seasonal poleward slope current.     

Road Vehicle Suspension System Design - a review

Based mainly on English language literature, information relating to the design of automobile suspension systems for ride comfort and control of wheel load variations for frequencies below body structure resonances is reviewed. The information is interpreted in the context of vehicles which travel through a wide speed range on roads of markedly differing quality, which do so carrying different loads and which are required to possess good handling qualities.

Sections are devoted to describing road surfaces, modelling vehicles and setting up performance criteria, and to passive, active, semi-active and slow-active system types. Methods for deriving active system control laws are outlined. Strengths and weaknesses of the various systems are identified and their relative performance capabilities and equipment requirements are discussed. Attention is given to adaptation of the suspension or control system parameters to changing conditions. Remaining research needs are considered.     

Impacts of Terrestrial and Shoreline Stressors on Eelgrass in Puget Sound: An Expert Elicitation

We used expert elicitation to examine potential responses of eelgrass to several restoration strategies in Puget Sound. Restoration strategies included shoreline armor removal and modification, removal and modification of overwater structures, and efforts to improve water clarity via reductions in anthropogenic nutrient and sediment loadings. Expert responses indicated a general belief that reducing stressors would increase eelgrass cover; however, responses varied greatly among stressors. Our analyses revealed that removal of overwater structures, nutrient loading and shoreline armoring will have significantly larger effects on eelgrass recovery than would removal of sediment loading, with removal of overwater structures having the largest effect. We then used a probabilistic model to estimate what actions, singularly or in combination, could yield a large increase in eelgrass cover. Reducing single stressors could, in theory, result in recovery of eelgrass in Puget Sound; however, the magnitude of actions required would be so great that it is likely not practical. In contrast, we identified combinations of smaller reductions of stressors that could achieve significant eelgrass recovery. For example, a 40% reduction in overwater structures, combined with 20% reductions in shoreline armor, and nutrient and sediment loadings, was predicted to be one of the more feasible combinations of actions for meeting the target. The importance of eelgrass to Puget requires prompt input of scientific advice, and this work fills an important knowledge gap in the face of rapidly approaching legislative deadlines. While coded expert opinion of the sort we use here is a weak substitute for data, our work clarifies the current extent of scientific uncertainty that can guide management action in the near term and scientific research in the long term.     

On the measurement of benefits from shipping services

This brief paper extends the author's comments on Conference pricing policy, and represents a reply to comments made by E. T. Laing.     

Attitudes towards public transport in New Zealand

Attitudes towards public transport (PT) in New Zealand’s three largest cities (Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch) were examined in a cross-sectional survey of drivers. A measure of prejudice to PT was developed to assess the strength and nature of attitudinal differences. Auckland residents had the highest levels of PT prejudice while Wellington residents had the lowest, and these differences were not related to demographic differences between the samples. Direct contact with PT was associated with reduced levels of PT prejudice, but measures of indirect contact, beliefs about using PT, and environmental attitudes were stronger predictors of PT prejudice scores. Controlling for these variables resulted in the difference in PT prejudice levels between Wellington and Christchurch becoming non-significant, while the differences between Auckland and the other two cities remained. This suggests that the difference between Wellington and Christchurch was primarily based on social norms regarding PT prejudice, while quality of service was a factor in the difference between Auckland and the other two cities. It is suggested that campaigns promoting PT ridership should focus both on the quality of service and on presenting PT usage as socially normal.     

Risk assessment: An introduction and critique

Abstract

Risk assessment is a methodology which has been used to evaluate the safety of major public projects, notably aerospace programs, liquefied natural gas import facilities, and nuclear power plants.

This article begins with a review of public attitudes toward risk and then describes the basic components of a risk assessment. Subsequent critical analysis suggests the pitfalls inherent in the technique, especially in regard to the establishing of a criterion of safety against which the results of a risk assessment will be compared. The author identifies three such criteria and rejects two of them, including the one most commonly used in federal government agency decision‐making, as unreliable or philosophically unacceptable.

The article concludes with comments on the applicability of risk assessment in coastal zone management.     

Simulation tool for optimization and performance prediction of a generic hybrid electric series powertrain

Hybrid and electric vehicles are taking an increasingly important slice of the market, gaining much interest from major car manufacturers which have decided to invest in this sector, taking as example the pioneers like Toyota. The key factor to hybrid and electric vehicle success is a good overall mileage achieved from the battery back or powertrain. The purpose of this work is to provide a support to design, testing, and development of such vehicles through the implementation of a mathematical model in order to simulate the operation and predict the performance of a generic ground vehicle equipped with either a purely electric or a hybrid-electric type powertrain. The model should enable the user to estimate the impact of various control strategies on mileage range, efficiency, energy consumption, etc. The model should also allow for a significant time to market reduction with all the related benefits in terms of cost etc. A validation is also provided, based on the application of this tool on a so-called micro-car (0.5t GVW class). Thanks to a joint research project with the manufacturer it has been possible to compare model results with real-world data directly obtained during road testing with the help of a data acquisition system.