Creating synthetic baseline populations

To develop activity-based travel models using microsimulation, individual travelers and households must be considered. Methods for creating baseline synthetic populations of households and persons using 1990 census data are given. Summary tables from the Census Bureau STF-3A are used in conjunction with the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), and Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) is applied to estimate the proportion of households in a block group or census tract with a desired combination of demographics. Households are generated by selection of households from the associated PUMS according to these proportions. The tables of demographic proportions which are exploited here to make household selections from the PUMS may be used in traditional modeling. The procedures are validated by creating pseudo census tracts from PUMS samples and considering the joint distribution of the size of households and the number of vehicles in the households. It is shown that the joint distributions created by these methods do not differ substantially from the true values. Additionally the effects of small changes in the procedure, such as imputation of additional demographics and adding partial counts to the constructed demographic tables are discussed in the paper.     

A Mathematical Model for Driver Steering Control, with Design, Tuning and Performance Results

A mathematical model for the steering control of an automobile is described. The structure of the model derives from linear optimal discrete time preview control theory but it is non-linear. Its parameter values are obtained by heuristic methods, using insight gained from the linear optimal control theory. The driver model is joined to a vehicle dynamics model and the path tracking performance is demonstrated, using moderate manoeuvring and racing speeds. The model is shown to be capable of excellent path following and to be robust against changes in the vehicle dynamics. Application to the simulation of manoeuvres specified by an ideal vehicle path and further development of the model to formalise the derivation of its parameter values and to put it to other uses are discussed.     

Force Control of a Semi-Active Damper

Two strategies are investigated for controlling a semi-active damper to track a prescribed force demand signal: (i) 'open loop' control, using a model of the damping force versus velocity characteristics; and (ii) force feedback (closed loop) control.

The damping characteristics and switching transients of a prototype damper were measured, and used to develop a mathematical model of the dynamics of the damper. The two control strategies were investigated using an idealised (constant velocity) test. Their performance was also simulated and measured under realistic operating conditions using the Hardware-in-the-Loop testing method.

Open loop damper control was generally found to give superior performance to force feedback control, due to its smaller phase lag at high frequencies.     

城市轨道交通换乘枢纽大客流换乘疏散研究

从换乘设备设施、换乘乘客特性和运营组织方案3个方面分析了对大客流换乘疏散的影响。最后,以某地铁换乘站为例,针对列车不同的到达时间间隔对换乘疏散的影响进行仿真研究,并对大客流换乘疏散组织提出建议。     

Impacts of Terrestrial and Shoreline Stressors on Eelgrass in Puget Sound: An Expert Elicitation

We used expert elicitation to examine potential responses of eelgrass to several restoration strategies in Puget Sound. Restoration strategies included shoreline armor removal and modification, removal and modification of overwater structures, and efforts to improve water clarity via reductions in anthropogenic nutrient and sediment loadings. Expert responses indicated a general belief that reducing stressors would increase eelgrass cover; however, responses varied greatly among stressors. Our analyses revealed that removal of overwater structures, nutrient loading and shoreline armoring will have significantly larger effects on eelgrass recovery than would removal of sediment loading, with removal of overwater structures having the largest effect. We then used a probabilistic model to estimate what actions, singularly or in combination, could yield a large increase in eelgrass cover. Reducing single stressors could, in theory, result in recovery of eelgrass in Puget Sound; however, the magnitude of actions required would be so great that it is likely not practical. In contrast, we identified combinations of smaller reductions of stressors that could achieve significant eelgrass recovery. For example, a 40% reduction in overwater structures, combined with 20% reductions in shoreline armor, and nutrient and sediment loadings, was predicted to be one of the more feasible combinations of actions for meeting the target. The importance of eelgrass to Puget requires prompt input of scientific advice, and this work fills an important knowledge gap in the face of rapidly approaching legislative deadlines. While coded expert opinion of the sort we use here is a weak substitute for data, our work clarifies the current extent of scientific uncertainty that can guide management action in the near term and scientific research in the long term.     

On the measurement of benefits from shipping services

This brief paper extends the author's comments on Conference pricing policy, and represents a reply to comments made by E. T. Laing.     

Attitudes towards public transport in New Zealand

Attitudes towards public transport (PT) in New Zealand’s three largest cities (Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch) were examined in a cross-sectional survey of drivers. A measure of prejudice to PT was developed to assess the strength and nature of attitudinal differences. Auckland residents had the highest levels of PT prejudice while Wellington residents had the lowest, and these differences were not related to demographic differences between the samples. Direct contact with PT was associated with reduced levels of PT prejudice, but measures of indirect contact, beliefs about using PT, and environmental attitudes were stronger predictors of PT prejudice scores. Controlling for these variables resulted in the difference in PT prejudice levels between Wellington and Christchurch becoming non-significant, while the differences between Auckland and the other two cities remained. This suggests that the difference between Wellington and Christchurch was primarily based on social norms regarding PT prejudice, while quality of service was a factor in the difference between Auckland and the other two cities. It is suggested that campaigns promoting PT ridership should focus both on the quality of service and on presenting PT usage as socially normal.     

Risk assessment: An introduction and critique

Abstract

Risk assessment is a methodology which has been used to evaluate the safety of major public projects, notably aerospace programs, liquefied natural gas import facilities, and nuclear power plants.

This article begins with a review of public attitudes toward risk and then describes the basic components of a risk assessment. Subsequent critical analysis suggests the pitfalls inherent in the technique, especially in regard to the establishing of a criterion of safety against which the results of a risk assessment will be compared. The author identifies three such criteria and rejects two of them, including the one most commonly used in federal government agency decision‐making, as unreliable or philosophically unacceptable.

The article concludes with comments on the applicability of risk assessment in coastal zone management.     

Simulation tool for optimization and performance prediction of a generic hybrid electric series powertrain

Hybrid and electric vehicles are taking an increasingly important slice of the market, gaining much interest from major car manufacturers which have decided to invest in this sector, taking as example the pioneers like Toyota. The key factor to hybrid and electric vehicle success is a good overall mileage achieved from the battery back or powertrain. The purpose of this work is to provide a support to design, testing, and development of such vehicles through the implementation of a mathematical model in order to simulate the operation and predict the performance of a generic ground vehicle equipped with either a purely electric or a hybrid-electric type powertrain. The model should enable the user to estimate the impact of various control strategies on mileage range, efficiency, energy consumption, etc. The model should also allow for a significant time to market reduction with all the related benefits in terms of cost etc. A validation is also provided, based on the application of this tool on a so-called micro-car (0.5t GVW class). Thanks to a joint research project with the manufacturer it has been possible to compare model results with real-world data directly obtained during road testing with the help of a data acquisition system.