Impact of proposed federal limits on US bagged food aid shipments: reduction in MSF carrier profits—a risk assessment 1

This paper is a stochastic risk simulation of the impact of proposed federal tonnage limits on US Maritime Security Fleet (MSF) bagged food aid shipments. Only MSF (i.e. federally subsidized carriers/vessels for war, or emergencies) and non-MSF US carriers (therefore, at competitive disadvantage) can compete for such shipments—representing an indirect subsidy to both groups. To compensate, US Congress proposed a financial penalty (loss of voyage subsidy) on MSF carriers for food aid above a certain limit. Accordingly, certain carriers will be policy 'winners' (non-MSF—larger food aid shipments), and others 'losers' (MSF). By simulating loss-minimizing economic behaviour by MSF carriers—using five stochastic factors—I obtain losses substantially below those claimed by the MSF owners.

Simulated annual-average MSF profits reduction is $3.5 million—within a large confidence interval; if no carriers surrender their subsidies (as claimed by MSF owners), a reduction of $6.0 million. Only 16% of annual MSF voyages are affected by a 2,500-ton limit (3%; 5,000-ton limit). Minimizing losses, 25 (of 41 affected) annual MSF voyages replace 38,000 tons of food aid with 23,000 tons of other cargo—forgoing $2.1 million in yearly direct subsidies. Two assumptions explain most of this simulated loss reduction.     

Impact of interviewing by proxy in travel survey conducted by telephone

Telephone‐interview surveys are a very efficient way of conducting large‐scale travel surveys. Recent advancements in computer technology have made it possible to improve upon the quality of data collected by telephone surveys through computerization of the entire sample‐control process, and through the direct recording of the collected data into a computer. Notwithstanding these technological advancements, potential sources of bias still exist, including the reliance on an adult member of the household to report the travel information of other household members. Travel data collected in a recent telephone interview survey in the Toronto region is used to examine this issue. The statistical tool used in the research was the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique as implemented within the general linear model framework in SAS. The study‐results indicate that reliance on informants to provide travel information for non‐informant members of their respective households led to the underreporting of some categories of trips. These underreported trip categories were primarily segments of home‐based discretionary trips, and non home‐based trips. Since these latter two categories of trips are made primarily outside the morning peak period, estimated factors to adjust for their underreporting were time‐period sensitive. Further, the number of vehicles available to the household, gender, and driver license status respectively were also found to be strongly associated with the underreporting of trips and thus were important considerations in the determination of adjustment factors. Work and school trips were found not to be underreported, a not surprising result giving the almost daily repetitiveness of trips made for these purposes and hence the ability of the informant to provide relatively more precise information on them.     

Active Suspension Control to Improve Vehicle Ride and Handling

In practice most active vehicle suspension work can be traced to two sources, Lotus' modal control and Karnopp's skyhook damper. A model is developed which allows comparison of different active suspension control algorithms. The Lotus modal control algorithm is reviewed, and compared with Karnopp's skyhook damper. It is shown that a tight inner closed loop allows the Lotus algorithm to achieve the inertial damping described by Kamopp for a single comer or quarter car. It is suggested that to achieve simultaneously high inertial damping and good disturbance rejection an inner force loop is desirable. A vehicle control scheme is presented which combines the Lotus modal decomposition with Karnopp's skyhook damper, allowing nearly optimal ride and simultaneously permitting modification of vehicle handling properties.     

Paratransit — Existing issues and future directions

Paratransit services bridge the gap between static fixed route transit and the flexible automobile travel. Paratransit services provide personalized public trapsportation by responding to the needs of individual markets and users. Unfortunately, fragmentation of the paratransit sector and institutional and regulatory constraints have prevented or complicated realization of paratransit's full potential. The orientation in this paper is not primarily to identify promising paratransit applications. Rather, it is to examine basic characteristics of paratransit services, fundamental issues unique to paratransit, existing problems that are constraining paratransit development, and ways to overcome or minimize existing difficulties. A taxonomy of paratransit services is proposed so that these systems can be better related to each other. The institutional environment of paratransit is examined from the viewpoints of planning, operations and regulation. A primary focus is on integration of various paratransit services and of paratransit and conventional fixed route services. Several proposals are made relating to improvements in existing services, new service concepts, new institutional arrangements and service integration.     

Consumers as participants in transportation planning

Legal requirements for public participation in transportation planning increase the opportunity for transportation consumers to influence the design of systems they will use. However, the implementation of these requirements may also increase the possibility that system design will be dominated by the opinions of outspoken groups. This study postulates that public participation is biased, and seeks to test this proposition using data from an Oregon survey consisting of approximately 2,400 respondents. Using Automatic Interaction Detector and cross tabulation analyses, different participation rates were uncovered for groups identified by demographic, attitudinal and behavioral variables.The authors thank the Oregon Department of Transportation for making the original data for the study available.     

A study on slamming pressure on a flat stiffened plate considering fluid–structure interaction

Normally, the design slamming pressure on the bottomof a semi-submersible-type floating rig is determined in a simple way using the relative speed obtained from an air-gap analysis. However, few studies have taken a thorough, robust, and deep-background approach to the estimation of design pressure. To investigate the slamming pressure on the bottom of a semi-submersible rig, a simplified deformable stiffened plate of a zero-degree deadrise angle is simulated using the nonlinear FEM software LS-DYNA, which can take the influence of fluid–structure interaction (FSI) into account. Various parametric studies are carried out to examine the effects of structural flexibility, coupling stiffness, mesh size, velocity, stiffener size, and air cushion. The pressure response on the plate by the coupling of fluid and structure is studied and the FSI effect of each parameter is discussed. Then, equivalent transient and static loads that result in the same maximum or permanent deformation as FSI are evaluated for design purposes through a series of parametric studies.     

Single wheel hub motor failures and their impact on vehicle and driver behaviour

This research work studies the impact of single wheel hub motor failures on the dynamic behaviour of electric vehicles and the corresponding driver reactions. An experimental study in a moving-base driving simulator is conducted to analyse the influence of single wheel hub motor failures for motorway speeds. Driver reaction times are derived from the measured data and discussed in their experimental context. The failure is rated objectively on the dynamic behaviour of the vehicle and compared to the subjective evaluation. Findings indicate that critical traffic situations impairing traffic safety can occur for motorway speeds. Clear counteractions by the drivers had to be taken.