Unsteady finite-depth effects during resistance tests on a ship model in a towing tank

This paper covers an extension of the study of Doctors et al. (J Ship Res 52(4):263–273, 2008) on oscillations in wave resistance during the constant-velocity phase of a towing-tank resistance test on a ship model to the case of relatively shallow water. We demonstrate here that the unsteady effects are very prominent and that it is essentially impossible to achieve a steady-state resistance curve in a towing tank of typical proportions for a water-depth-to-model-length ratio of 0.25. This statement is particularly true in the speed region near a depth Froude number of unity. However, on the positive side, we show here that an application of unsteady linearized wave-resistance theory provides an excellent prediction of the measured total resistance, when one accounts for the form factor in the usual manner. Finally, a simple application of the results to the planning and analysis of towing-tank tests is presented.     

Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting: review and proposed directions

This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We extract and synthesise 130 research papers, considering two perspectives: (1) methodological framework and (2) methods for capturing spatial information. Spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. Machine learning methods, which have attracted more attention in recent years, outperform the naïve statistical methods such as historical average and exponential smoothing. However, there is no guarantee of superiority when machine learning methods are compared with advanced statistical methods such as spatiotemporal autoregressive integrated moving average. As for the spatial dependency detection, a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks as follows: (1) studies capture spatial dependency of either adjacent or distant upstream and downstream links with the study link, (2) the spatially relevant links are selected either by prejudgment or by correlation-coefficient analysis, and (3) studies develop forecasting methods in a corridor test sample, where all links are connected sequentially together, assume a similarity between the behaviour of both parallel and adjacent links, and overlook the competitive nature of traffic links.     

Expertise in decision-making for large infrastructure projects: from UK trunk roads to High Speed Rail 2

At the decision-making stage, a large-scale infrastructure project is essentially a broad concept, and this means the expert analyses will differ from each other and become contested over time, leading to the emergence of rival narratives. It is only where there is a limited range of expert analyses that the bases for decision-making will remain relatively clear-cut. Over time the contested nature of expertise can significantly inhibit the construction of effective narratives, either for or against the project, and also make decision-making more complex and problematic. Decision makers may also seek greater clarification through the construction of narratives that rise above these disputed areas of expertise, and the scientific evidence becomes less important. This paper examines the changing nature of contested expertise through a comparative analysis of political decision-making between UK trunk roads policy and the case of High Speed Rail 2, through the framework of epistemic communities.     

Sea Cucumber Moratorium and Livelihood Diversity in Papua New Guinea

Livelihood diversity factors such as flexibility within fisheries, geographical mobility, reallocation of fishing effort into the broader economy, and the non-material benefits that fisheries provide are important areas of research in marine policy. We use two small-scale fisheries related socio-economic surveys of communities in the Tigak Islands of Papua New Guinea. The first conducted 5 years before a ban on the harvesting of sea cucumbers was imposed and the second from the present day, 5 years after the initiation of the ban—with the objectives of exploring changes in household fishing strategies (types and numbers of species targeted) and to identify any important socioeconomic factors that help explain those changes. Fishing's contribution to total household income has increased significantly (p = 0.019) up from 61% in 2004 to 73% in 2014 with the percentage of female residents living in a household now positively and significantly (p = 0.018) associated with fishing income. The average number of species categories targeted per household increased insignificantly while households with more women are significantly (p = 0.018) less likely to target more species than households with more men. Moreover, customary management practices contribute to this difference. Together, these results show that households are not worse off financially 5 years after the ban on sea cucumber harvesting and that gendered seascape use has implications for the role of livelihood diversity as a marine policy tool.     

Ridership drivers of bus rapid transit systems

We have collected information on 46 bus rapid transit (BRT) systems throughout the world to investigate the potential patronage drivers. From a large number of candidate explanatory variables (quantitative and qualitative), 11 sources of systematic variation are identified which have a statistically significant impact on daily passenger-trip numbers. These sources are fare, headway, the length of the BRT network, the number of corridors, average distance between stations; whether there is: an integrated network of routes and corridors, modal integration at BRT stations, pre-board fare collection and fare verification, quality control oversight from an independent agency, at-level boarding and alighting, as well as the location of BRT. The findings of this paper offer important insights into features of BRT systems that are positive contributors to growing patronage and hence should be taken into account in designing and planning BRT systems.     

Review and meta-analysis of U.K. time elasticities of travel demand

In contrast with reviews of values of time and price elasticities, the literature contains little by way of detailed reviews of travel time based choice and demand elasticities. This paper reports the most extensive meta-analysis of time-based demand elasticities yet undertaken, supplemented with a review of literature not previously in the public domain. The meta-analysis is based upon 427 direct elasticities covering travel time, generalised journey time (GJT) and service headway and drawn from 69 UK studies. The elasticities are found to vary, as expected, across attributes, and quite strong effects have been detected according to distance. We provide interesting insights into the relationship between long and short run elasticities and elasticities obtained from static models and choice models based on actual and hypothetical preferences. Significantly, the results seem to indicate that the duration for the long run demand impact to work through depends upon the periodicity of the model estimated. There is little variation apparent by journey purpose, source of the evidence, nor over time or by region/flow type, whilst travel time elasticities for high speed rail are not materially different from conventional contexts. The findings support some official elasticity recommendations and conventions but challenge others, and can be used to provide time-based elasticities where none exist or to assess new empirical evidence.     

Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence

Travel time reliability is a fundamental factor in travel behavior. It represents the temporal uncertainty experienced by travelers in their movement between any two nodes in a network. The importance of the time reliability depends on the penalties incurred by the travelers. In road networks, travelers consider the existence of a trip travel time uncertainty in different choice situations (departure time, route, mode, and others). In this paper, a systematic review of the current state of research in travel time reliability, and more explicitly in the value of travel time reliability is presented. Moreover, a meta-analysis is performed in order to determine the reasons behind the discrepancy among the reliability estimates.     

The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.     

Physical environments influencing bicyclists’ perception of comfort on separated and on-street bicycle facilities

This study investigates the impacts of physical environments on bicyclists’ perceptions of comfort on separated and on-street bicycle facilities. Based on a field investigation conducted in Nanjing, China, we find that physical environmental factors significantly influencing bicyclists’ perception of comfort on the two types of facility. Cyclists’ comfort is mainly influenced by the road geometry and surrounding conditions on physically separated paths while they pay attention to the effective riding space and traffic situations on on-street bicycle lanes.     

Application of new parameterizations of gas transfer velocity and their impact on regional and global marine CO2 budgets

One of the dominant sources of uncertainty in the calculation of air–sea flux of carbon dioxide on a global scale originates from the various parameterizations of the gas transfer velocity, k, that are in use. Whilst it is undisputed that most of these parameterizations have shortcomings and neglect processes which influence air–sea gas exchange and do not scale with wind speed alone, there is no general agreement about their relative accuracy.The most widely used parameterizations are based on non-linear functions of wind speed and, to a lesser extent, on sea surface temperature and salinity. Processes such as surface film damping and whitecapping are known to have an effect on air–sea exchange. More recently published parameterizations use friction velocity, sea surface roughness, and significant wave height. These new parameters can account to some extent for processes such as film damping and whitecapping and could potentially explain the spread of wind-speed based transfer velocities published in the literature.We combine some of the principles of two recently published k parameterizations [Glover, D.M., Frew, N.M., McCue, S.J. and Bock, E.J., 2002. A multiyear time series of global gas transfer velocity from the TOPEX dual frequency, normalized radar backscatter algorithm. In: Donelan, M.A., Drennan, W.M., Saltzman, E.S., and Wanninkhof, R. (Eds.), Gas Transfer at Water Surfaces, Geophys. Monograph 127. AGU,Washington, DC, 325–331; Woolf, D.K., 2005. Parameterization of gas transfer velocities and sea-state dependent wave breaking. Tellus, 57B: 87–94] to calculate k as the sum of a linear function of total mean square slope of the sea surface and a wave breaking parameter. This separates contributions from direct and bubble-mediated gas transfer as suggested by Woolf [Woolf, D.K., 2005. Parameterization of gas transfer velocities and sea-state dependent wave breaking. Tellus, 57B: 87–94] and allows us to quantify contributions from these two processes independently.We then apply our parameterization to a monthly TOPEX altimeter gridded 1.5° × 1.5° data set and compare our results to transfer velocities calculated using the popular wind-based k parameterizations by Wanninkhof [Wanninkhof, R., 1992. Relationship between wind speed and gas exchange over the ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 97: 7373–7382.] and Wanninkhof and McGillis [Wanninkhof, R. and McGillis, W., 1999. A cubic relationship between air−sea CO2 exchange and wind speed. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26(13): 1889–1892]. We show that despite good agreement of the globally averaged transfer velocities, global and regional fluxes differ by up to 100%. These discrepancies are a result of different spatio-temporal distributions of the processes involved in the parameterizations of k, indicating the importance of wave field parameters and a need for further validation.