Transport policy scenario-building

Long-term planning decisions must be as robust as possible to withstand such changes in the policy-making environment. This calls for a new approach for identifying how policies might fare under different types of conditions and for identifying robust no-regrets strategies. This paper outlines a systematic and logical framework for the development of policy scenarios and shows how scenarios can be used in the analysis of future policy options. The article discusses how scenario analysis can be used to identify, anticipate and assess policy options for the future in an environment of uncertainty, mainly using examples of transport policy in Europe.     

The relative importance of price and driving range on electric vehicle adoption: Los Angeles case study

Electric vehicles (EVs) are still a maturing technology. Barriers to their adoption include price and range anxiety. EV batteries are significant in determining both EV prices and costs. In this work, we focus on the impact of a high-capacity battery and EV rebates on an EV ecosystem. Using survey data from Los Angeles, California, we simulate different cases of battery costs and prices by means of an agent-based EV ecosystem model. We find that even in Los Angeles, a geographically spread out city, the price of EVs is a more significant barrier to adoption than EV range. In fact, even a quintupling of battery size at no additional costs improves EV adoption by only 5 %. Therefore, policy makers should focus more on affordability than range in promoting EV adoption.     

Limitations of transport policy

There is an implication in the notion of 'transport policy' that substantial improvements could be made to the transport system given sufficient ingenuity, investment and good will. This paper argues that such policy aspirations cannot cope with the desire for ever-increasing mobility, a deep and powerful force in modern society. In densely populated countries there is no possibility of meeting the demand for unconstrained movement through construction of additional transport infrastructure, since new and longer journeys would quickly fill the extra capacity until the congestion equilibrium is re-established. What limits mobility in practice is the time individuals have available for travel, time which is equitably distributed. Transport plans need to acknowledge this time constraint as fundamental, and accordingly be realistically modest about what is achievable. It is an illusion that the transport system could be substantially more efficient whilst remaining equitable.     

Transport policy for an ageing population

Mobility declines with increasing age, reflecting the onset of physical or mental infirmity, affordability of travel for those on retirement incomes, and the mal-design of the transport infrastructure and operational arrangements. With the prospect of a rapidly ageing population, it is important to address measures to promote mobility if the quality of life of older people is to be sustained. In the UK, pensioners on low incomes, who could be hindered in their travel by the cost of fares on public transport, benefit from the general availability of half price (or better) concessionary fares for local travel. A variety of measures are in place to counter the effects of age-associated disabilities that hinder mobility, including low floor buses, subsidised taxis and community transport schemes. The Disability Discrimination Act is ensuring that public services vehicles are accessible to older people with disabilities. The motor car is of increasing importance in later life, particularly for those with disabilities, and a variety of design and technological approaches are being brought to bear to maintain the mobility of older people. These various efforts undoubtedly enhance the mobility of older people. However, beyond that broad conclusion it is hard to make evidencebased judgements. There is therefore a pressing need to develop methods to evaluate developments in policy and practice.     

SMART: simulation model for activities, resources and travel

This paper proposes the development of an activity-based model of travel that integrates household activities, land use patterns, traffic flows, and regional demographics. The model is intended as a replacement of the traditional Urban Transportation Planning System (UTPS) modeling system now in common use. Operating in a geographic-information system (GIS) environment, the model's heart is a Household Activity Simulator that determines the locations and travel patterns of household members daily activities in 3 categories: mandatory, flexible, and optional. The system produces traffic volumes on streets and land use intensity patterns, as well as typical travel outputs. The model is particularly well suited to analyzing issues related to the Clean Air Act and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA). Implementation would, ideally, require an activity-based travel diary, but can be done with standard house-interview travel surveys. An implementation effort consisting of validation research in parallel with concurrent model programming is recommended.     

A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain

This paper presents an innovative approach to analyzing road vehicle freight traffic that uses a dynamic panel data specification derived from a gravity model. This dynamic approach, which has recently been employed in international goods trade models in lieu of the traditional static specification, is applied to the case of Spain using data for the countrys 15 NUTS-3 regions between 1999 and 2009. Using the system general method of moments approach, we obtained significant evidence that the flow of vehicles carrying commodities by road has a strong persistence effect when controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. We also found that the quality of road transport infrastructure has a significant impact on vehicle trips. According to our findings, we suggest that this type of specification be employed in distribution models in which fixed effects and lags of the dependent variable are included to account for unobserved heterogeneity and persistence effects, respectively.     

Impact of family in-home quality time on person travel demand

This paper introduces the concept of Primary Family Priority Time (PFPT), which represents a high priority household decision to spend time together for in-home activities. PFPT is incorporated into a fully specified and operational activity based discrete choice model system for Copenhagen, called COMPAS, using the DaySim software platform. Structural tests and estimation results identify two important findings. First, PFPT has a place high in the model hierarchy, and second, strong interactions exist between PFPT and the other day level activity components of the model system. Forecasts are generated for a road pricing and congestion scenario by COMPAS and a comparison version of the model system that excludes PFPT. COMPAS with PFPT exhibits less mode changing and time-of-day shifting in response to pricing and congestion than the comparison version.     

Travel mode choice and travel satisfaction: bridging the gap between decision utility and experienced utility

Over the past decades research on travel mode choice has evolved from work that is informed by utility theory, examining the effects of objective determinants, to studies incorporating more subjective variables such as habits and attitudes. Recently, the way people perceive their travel has been analyzed with transportation-oriented scales of subjective well-being, and particularly the satisfaction with travel scale. However, studies analyzing the link between travel mode choice (i.e., decision utility) and travel satisfaction (i.e., experienced utility) are limited. In this paper we will focus on the relation between mode choice and travel satisfaction for leisure trips (with travel-related attitudes and the built environment as explanatory variables) of study participants in urban and suburban neighborhoods in the city of Ghent, Belgium. It is shown that the built environment and travel-related attitudes—both important explanatory variables of travel mode choice—and mode choice itself affect travel satisfaction. Public transit users perceive their travel most negatively, while active travel results in the highest levels of travel satisfaction. Surprisingly, suburban dwellers perceive their travel more positively than urban dwellers, for all travel modes.     

Public transit service operation strategy under indifference thresholds‐based bi‐modal equilibrium

This paper investigates public transit service (fare and frequency) operation strategies in a bi‐modal network with assumption of indifference thresholds‐based travelers' mode choice behavior. Under such behavior, users would switch to a new mode only if its utility is larger than the utility of current mode plus a threshold. The concept of indifference thresholds‐based bi‐modal equilibrium (ITBE) and the properties of the ITBE solution are explicitly proposed. Considering transit operator's different economic objectives (profit‐maximizing, no‐deficit and total system cost‐minimizing), the effect of indifference thresholds on transit fare and frequency schemes is studied. Some numerical experiments are accompanied to verify the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Santiago Panel</Emphasis>: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago

Although panels offer significant advantages over cross sectional data especially in terms of evaluating the effects of significant policy changes, there are precious few examples of panels built around an important change to an urban transport system. For this reason we took the opportunity of the introduction of Transantiago, a radically new public transport system for Santiago de Chile in February 2007, to form a panel, the first wave of which was taken in December 2006. The final objective was to use this Santiago Panel to estimate mode choice models considering both inertia and policy effects. This document describes both the design and construction of the panel, and presents some results based on an analysis of its four waves; for example, we registered a high percentage of mode change (55.1%) attributable to the introduction of the new system. The panel can claim the highest response rate (or lowest attrition) reported in the literature (95% in the second wave, 92% in the third one, and 85% in the forth one). This hints at the possibility of developing sophisticated models to evaluate the effects of a system shock in the presence of inertia in decision making.