Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence

Travel time reliability is a fundamental factor in travel behavior. It represents the temporal uncertainty experienced by travelers in their movement between any two nodes in a network. The importance of the time reliability depends on the penalties incurred by the travelers. In road networks, travelers consider the existence of a trip travel time uncertainty in different choice situations (departure time, route, mode, and others). In this paper, a systematic review of the current state of research in travel time reliability, and more explicitly in the value of travel time reliability is presented. Moreover, a meta-analysis is performed in order to determine the reasons behind the discrepancy among the reliability estimates.     

Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

A practical assessment of stated preferences methods

Stated preferences data in the form of rankings, ratings and choices were collected in Santiago and discrete choice models estimated with them. The models were compared in terms of accuracy v/s the cost of obtaining the information and models. All methods produced reasonable but different models and fairly close subjective values of time. In terms of production costs the ranking method was a clear looser although the experimental design was slightly biased against it. Finally, the use of computerised interviews is highly recommended particularly for dealing with low income people.     

Home-to-work commuting,urban form and potential energy savings: A local scale approach to regional statistics

The link between transport energy consumption and land use patterns has been the focus of a considerable amount of academic works over the past decades. While many empirical researches are backed up with solid statistical techniques, most of them do not fully consider the influence of scale underlying empirical quantitative investigations. Using fine-scale home-to-work commuting data for Wallonia (Belgium), this paper re-evaluates Breheny’s (1995) assertion that urban structure should hold the characteristics of major cities if substantial energy savings are to be achieved. A local scale approach highlights efficient settlements in terms of transport energy consumption not only within major towns, but also within remote rural areas. Furthermore, results suggest that influencing the urban form following local energy efficient examples rather than regional ones could also yield significant gains, without an extreme policy stance of re-urbanisation in major cities.     

Shipping control and the changing use of marine space

In this paper Professor Couper discusses the divisions of marine space as set out in the Revised Single Negotiating Text of UNCLOS III in relation to maritime accidents. This is followed by a contribution by Mr Burger on statistical material related to the incidence of marine accidents in North-West European waters. The third section of the paper by Captain S. Abdelgalil, is devoted to a technical discussion on traffic lanes in confined waters.     

Sea Cucumber Moratorium and Livelihood Diversity in Papua New Guinea

Livelihood diversity factors such as flexibility within fisheries, geographical mobility, reallocation of fishing effort into the broader economy, and the non-material benefits that fisheries provide are important areas of research in marine policy. We use two small-scale fisheries related socio-economic surveys of communities in the Tigak Islands of Papua New Guinea. The first conducted 5 years before a ban on the harvesting of sea cucumbers was imposed and the second from the present day, 5 years after the initiation of the ban—with the objectives of exploring changes in household fishing strategies (types and numbers of species targeted) and to identify any important socioeconomic factors that help explain those changes. Fishing's contribution to total household income has increased significantly (p = 0.019) up from 61% in 2004 to 73% in 2014 with the percentage of female residents living in a household now positively and significantly (p = 0.018) associated with fishing income. The average number of species categories targeted per household increased insignificantly while households with more women are significantly (p = 0.018) less likely to target more species than households with more men. Moreover, customary management practices contribute to this difference. Together, these results show that households are not worse off financially 5 years after the ban on sea cucumber harvesting and that gendered seascape use has implications for the role of livelihood diversity as a marine policy tool.     

Estimating traffic demand risk – A multiscale analysis

This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950–2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.     

Maritime interests in the EU policy-making: Structures,practices, and governability of collective action

Throughout Europe, a number of maritime interests have re-targeted their lobbying structures and strategies aiming to influence the development of the maritime related European Union (EU) policies. The paper examines these maritime interests’ mobilisation in the making of the Common EU Maritime Transport Policy (CMTP). First, it provides a review of the role of these interest groups and the implications of the observed collective interests’ representation. Then, with the contribution a data-set of replies to a questionnaire distributed to all the interest groups that are involved in EU maritime affairs, the paper analyses the variety of interest groups representing the maritime sector in EU affairs. The focus is on the structures (i.e. membership numbers and types, location, internal structures, budget) and the lobbying practices of the 37 identified EU level maritime related organisations. The paper also presents an evaluation of the most positive and most negative parameters of the ‘EU environment’ and the ‘economic environment’ that assist, or undermine, the governability cohesiveness of this collective action. This study provides information on whether and under what conditions maritime interests are able to form comprehensive EU-level organisations capable of representing their members and their interests in the EU policy making process     

“Local background” levels of carbon monoxide in an urban area

The objective of this study was to obtain a better understanding of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations immediately upwind of urban roadways, the “local background” values, and how these concentrations depend upon the surrounding traffic and the general meteorology. Measurements were made at seven sites in Seattle, WA during the winter of 1993. Local background CO concentrations were characterized by an absence of short term fluctuations, a steady buildup during the 3 p.m. to 11 p.m. period, and a lack of spatial gradients in the 8-h average values. Distinctly different log-normal distributions of the 8-h averages were observed for “trafficked” sites versus “urban park” sites, with mean values of 1.6 and 1.0 ppm respectively. A simple regression model was developed to predict the local background CO that includes distance from roadway, average daily traffic of nearby roadways, and the frequency of occurrence of low wind speeds (R² = 0.74; F = 170).