Tips and Pitfalls in PPP design

The Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) procedure is a very appealing model, but as it becomes more and more used in practice, problems and failures have been observed in the management of many projects. Many of these unfortunate experiences are consequences of errors in the implementation of the procedure, but in other cases, clear errors of conception were the cause.Indeed, there are many ways to structure a PPP and PPP is not the only way to manage an infrastructure scheme. It is thus an important task to provide guidelines on whether to use PPP or other types of procurement and, in case a PPP is preferred, on how to design it. The aim of this chapter is to contribute to this task, trying to combine theoretical knowledge and practical experience.After a review of the variety of economic characteristics of transport infrastructure and their procurement conditions, we recall the reasons that may justify this association of public and private management which is the characteristic of PPP, outlining the limits of using pure private or pure public procurement. Then an analytic process is proposed, screening the parameters which matter most for choosing the PPP procedure among many possible ones, depending on the specificities of the various transport modes. This process gives also indications on key elements for implementing a PPP.Finally, the analytic process proposed is used for a generic analysis of, respectively, the motorways and port sectors, so as to test its practicability and customizing capability for the use of public authorities.     

Extending stated choice analysis to recognise agent-specific attribute endogeneity in bilateral group negotiation and choice: a think piece

This paper is a think piece on variations in the structure of stated preference studies when modelling the joint preferences of interacting agents who have the power to influence the attribute levels on offer. The approach proposed is an extension of standard stated choice methods, known as ‘stated endogenous attribute level’ (SEAL) analysis. It allows for interactive agents to adjust attribute levels off a base stated choice specification that are within their control, in an effort to reach agreement in an experimental setting. This accomplishes three goals: (1) the ability to place respondents in an environment that more closely matches interactive settings in which some attribute levels are endogenous to a specific agent, should the modeller wish to capture such behaviour; (2) the improved ability of the modeller to capture the behaviour in such settings, including a greater wealth of information on the related interaction processes, rather than simply outcomes; and (3) the expansion of the set of situations that the modeller can investigate using experimental data.

特大城市交通出行预测:中国面临的挑战与机遇

作为城市交通规划的一个重要组成部分,城市交通出行预测的发展已经走过了60年。最初的研究工作于20世纪50年代在北美展开,随后延伸到欧洲、澳大利亚、新西兰和南美洲以及中国等发展中国家。作为一个相对成熟的领域,交通规划依然包含着许多新的研究方向,同时专业人员在正确合理的使用商业软件方面还有一定的困难。中国正在经历高速的城市化进程,这意味着对道路、公交系统,机场以及城际间高速公路建设有大量的投资。合理的投资决策需要对未来中国交通拥挤的都市进行出行预测。为了更好的了解中国交通出行预测的发展现状,笔者和几个大城市的交通规划部门以及大学的相关院系进行了探讨和交流。此文的初衷是记录下从会谈中所获得的有普遍意义的发现与印象,以及提供给参加讨论者的意见。     

Safety of child passengers who ride to school on a motorcycle: An observational study in two Argentine cities

In low- and middle-income countries, the motorcycle has increasingly become a means of family transportation due to its low cost and the poor quality of public transportation. Consequently, many child motorcycle passengers are at an elevated risk of serious injury in the event of a traffic crash. The available research on child safety devices is scarce and focused mainly on helmet use, while other devices (e.g. high-visibility clothing) have received little attention. This observational study documented the safety conditions and related factors of primary schoolchildren who rode to school as motorcycle passengers in two cities of Argentina.Data was obtained in the vicinity of 27 public primary schools in two cities of Argentina (one mid-sized city and the other a small city by the country's standards) between May 2018 and September 2019. A total of 1440 motorcycle occupants (656 drivers and 784 child passengers) were observed.The use of an adequate helmet was lower among children (vs. drivers). Most of the children were unable to reach the motorcycle's footrests, did not use high-visibility clothing or a fastening device, carried a backpack, and mounted and dismounted the motorcycle in an unsafe place. Some children rode in front of the driver or in a motorcycle with three or four occupants. Use of helmet by drivers and driver sex (woman) were related with an increase in safety in children. The indicators were worse in the larger city.The results revealed a low level of adoption of safety measures in children as well as in adults in both cities. This suggests that motorcycle travel is unsafe. Greater effort is needed to improve motorcycle safety, especially for children. It is important to debate regulatory details such as a minimum age for passengers, a limit on the number of passengers, and other safety criteria. It is also important to conduct educational campaigns that include the distribution of safety devices.     

Experience as a conditioning effect on choice: Does it matter whether it is exogenous or endogenous?

Previous choice studies have proposed a way to condition the utility of each alternative in a choice set on experience with the alternatives accumulated over previous periods, defined either as a mode used or not in a most recent trip, or the mode chosen in their most recent trip and the number of similar one-way trips made during the last week. The paper found that the overall statistical performance of the mixed logit model improved significantly, suggesting that this conditioning idea has merit. Experience was treated as an exogenous influence linked to the scale of the random component, and to that extent it captures some amount of the heterogeneity in unobserved effects, purging them of potential endogeneity. The current paper continues to investigate the matter of endogeneity versus exogeneity. The proposed approach implements the control function method through the experience conditioning feature in a choice model. We develop two choice models, both using stated preference data. The paper extends the received contribution in that we allow for the endogenous variable to have an impact on the attributes through a two stage method, called the Multiple Indicator Solution, originally implemented in a different context and for a single (quality) attribute, in which stage two is the popular control function method. In the first stage, the entire utility expression associated with all observed attributes is conditioned on the prior experience with an alternative. Hence, we are capturing possible correlates associated with each and every attribute and not just one selected attribute. We find evidence of potential endogeneity. The purging exercise however, results in both statistical similarities and differences in time and cost choice elasticities and mean estimates of the value of travel time savings. We are able to identify a very practical method to correct for possible endogeneity under experience conditioning that will encourage researchers and practitioners to use such an approach in more advanced non-linear discrete choice models as a matter of routine.

     

Delivering mobility as a service (MaaS) through a broker/aggregator business model

Transportation - Mobility as a service (MaaS) promises a bold new future where bundled public transport and shared mobility options (carsharing, ridesharing, bikesharing and microtransit) will...     

The role of perceived environment,neighbourhood characteristics,and attitudes in walking behaviour: evidence from a rapidly developing city in China

Transportation - The associations between objective and subjective dimensions of the built environment and walking behaviour have been examined extensively in existing studies. However, the...     

Method for obtaining the wheel–rail contact location and its application to the normal problem calculation through ‘CONTACT’

This work presents a robust methodology for calculating inter-penetration areas between railway wheel and rail surfaces, the profiles of which are defined by a series of points. The method allows general three-dimensional displacements of the wheelset to be considered, and its characteristics make it especially suitable for dynamic simulations where the wheel–rail contact is assumed to be flexible. The technique is based on the discretisation of the geometries of the surfaces in contact, considering the wheel as a set of truncated cones and the rail as points. By means of this approach, it is possible to reduce the problem to the calculation of the intersections between cones and lines, the solution for which has a closed-form expression. The method has been used in conjunction with the CONTACT algorithm in order to solve the static normal contact problem when the lateral displacement of the wheelset, its yaw angle and the vertical force applied in the wheelset centroid are prescribed. The results consist of smooth functions when the dependent coordinates are represented as a function of the independent ones, lacking the jump discontinuities that are present when a rigid contact model is adopted. Example results are shown and assessed for the normal contact problem for different lateral and yaw positions of the wheelset on the track.     

Regulation,trust and contractual incentives around transport contracts – Is there anything bus operators can learn from public air service contracts?

This paper compares recent experiences in contract negotiation and subsequent commitment in public air services with the bus industry. The heart of the paper is a survey of European and Australian regional airlines, which we mirror with revealed experiences of bus operators. We aim to identify a number of elements in the contracting regimes that have exposed ambiguity and significant gaps in what the principal (e.g., transport department) expected, and what the agent (airline or bus operator) believed they were obliged to deliver. Ultimately airline and bus services are similar in that public authorities procure transport services that are desirable for the society but would be unprofitable without government involvement. In both sectors (theoretically fairly similar) public transport contracts are used, and those usually include obligations and performance measurements. In terms of similarities, one of the surveyed contract details that had a perceived high clarity in both industries was “payment procedures” and amongst those with rather poor clarity was also in both industries “incentives to improve performance and grow patronage”. We also show differences between regional air services and bus operations with regard to performance measurement and pre-specified obligations. Because of the strong safety culture around air services we find that regulation and trusting partnerships are even more important to aviation than to the bus sector. Because of the high level of trust but also because of simpler and more complete contracts in aviation, there is much less (re-)negotiation going on compared to the bus operations.     

The Myth of Travel Time Saving

Abstract

The idea that the main benefit of improvements to transport infrastructure is the saving of travel time has been central to transport economic analysis. There is, however, little empirical evidence to support this proposition. Indeed, in the long run average travel time is conserved, implying that travellers take the benefit of improvements in the form of additional access to more distant destinations made possible by higher speeds. Such a perspective, based on considerations of the value of access, has implications for economic appraisal, modelling and policy.