Extending stated choice analysis to recognise agent-specific attribute endogeneity in bilateral group negotiation and choice: a think piece

This paper is a think piece on variations in the structure of stated preference studies when modelling the joint preferences of interacting agents who have the power to influence the attribute levels on offer. The approach proposed is an extension of standard stated choice methods, known as ‘stated endogenous attribute level’ (SEAL) analysis. It allows for interactive agents to adjust attribute levels off a base stated choice specification that are within their control, in an effort to reach agreement in an experimental setting. This accomplishes three goals: (1) the ability to place respondents in an environment that more closely matches interactive settings in which some attribute levels are endogenous to a specific agent, should the modeller wish to capture such behaviour; (2) the improved ability of the modeller to capture the behaviour in such settings, including a greater wealth of information on the related interaction processes, rather than simply outcomes; and (3) the expansion of the set of situations that the modeller can investigate using experimental data.

Tips and Pitfalls in PPP design

The Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) procedure is a very appealing model, but as it becomes more and more used in practice, problems and failures have been observed in the management of many projects. Many of these unfortunate experiences are consequences of errors in the implementation of the procedure, but in other cases, clear errors of conception were the cause.Indeed, there are many ways to structure a PPP and PPP is not the only way to manage an infrastructure scheme. It is thus an important task to provide guidelines on whether to use PPP or other types of procurement and, in case a PPP is preferred, on how to design it. The aim of this chapter is to contribute to this task, trying to combine theoretical knowledge and practical experience.After a review of the variety of economic characteristics of transport infrastructure and their procurement conditions, we recall the reasons that may justify this association of public and private management which is the characteristic of PPP, outlining the limits of using pure private or pure public procurement. Then an analytic process is proposed, screening the parameters which matter most for choosing the PPP procedure among many possible ones, depending on the specificities of the various transport modes. This process gives also indications on key elements for implementing a PPP.Finally, the analytic process proposed is used for a generic analysis of, respectively, the motorways and port sectors, so as to test its practicability and customizing capability for the use of public authorities.     

The Myth of Travel Time Saving

Abstract

The idea that the main benefit of improvements to transport infrastructure is the saving of travel time has been central to transport economic analysis. There is, however, little empirical evidence to support this proposition. Indeed, in the long run average travel time is conserved, implying that travellers take the benefit of improvements in the form of additional access to more distant destinations made possible by higher speeds. Such a perspective, based on considerations of the value of access, has implications for economic appraisal, modelling and policy.     

Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

在资金预算不确定条件下路面维护和修复项目管理决策优化方法

一个得到良好开发和维护的路面管理系统（PMS）能够帮助管理者做出在什么时候,对哪些路段采用什么样的路面维护和修复方案的决定,从而实现可用资源的最大化.本文提出一种在资金预算不确定条件下路面维护和修复项目管理决策优化方法 (MPMRPBU),为确保管理者在一个决策规划时段内,从公路网中选择并优化一组路面维护和修复方案,建立随机线性规划模型求解MPMRPBU问题.通过案例分析,比较在确定性优化和随机规划两种不同条件下的优化方案,研究不同经济预算对优化方案的影响.结果表明,采用随机规划方法能产生高质量的MPMRPBU解决方案, 该算法可以解决实际问题.     

Organization of urban mass transport in developing countries

The supply of mass transport has not kept pace with the demand in cities in developing countries due to rapid urbanization and severe resource constraints. Developing countries would benefit from a study of the experience in developed countries regarding organization of mass transport and may adopt a few of the successful techniques. Examples include: unified transport authority; intermodal transfer facilities; subsidy to public transport; light rail transit; and redevelopment of the area around main rail terminals. Developing countries would be able to implement most of these techniques. The possible contribution of developed countries to developing countries lies mainly in the area of rolling stock and advanced signalling for rail based urban transport and in training highly skilled manpower for operation and management.     

Creative nodes,logistical networks,and the future of the metropolis

A paradigmatic shift away from traditional quantitative methods towards qualitative dynamic analysis is proposed in order to fully comprehend the future of the metropolis. Over the last millennium the great structural changes of production, location, trade, culture and institutions have most likely been triggered by slow but steady changes to those logistical networks which are responsible for the movement of key factors of production. Nonlinear dynamic methods such as catastrophe theory and synergetics can help to provide the necessary analytical insights. Creativity and accessibility to logistical networks are portrayed as important catalysts of qualitative change. requests for offprints