Partition‐based algorithm for estimating transportation network reliability with dependent link failures

Evaluating the reliability of a transportation network often involves an intensive simulation exercise to randomly generate and evaluate different possible network states. This paper proposes an algorithm to approximate the network reliability which minimizes the use of such simulation procedure. The algorithm will dissect and classify the network states into reliable, unreliable, and un‐determined partitions. By postulating the monotone property of the reliability function, each reliable and/or unreliable state can be used to determine a number of other reliable and/or unreliable states without evaluating all of them with an equilibrium assignment procedure. The paper also proposes the cause‐based failure framework for representing dependent link degradation probabilities. The algorithm and framework proposed are tested with a medium size test network to illustrate the performance of the algorithm.     

车辆安全和联合国十年行动计划

预计到2030年道路交通事故将成为第五大致命原因，每年死亡人数将上升至240万人。儿童、青少年和自行车、摩托车车手以及行人这类易受碰撞的群体是最处于危险之中的。     

A method to assess demand growth vulnerability of travel times on road network links

Many national governments around the world have turned their recent focus to monitoring the actual reliability of their road networks. In parallel there have been major research efforts aimed at developing modelling approaches for predicting the potential vulnerability of such networks, and in forecasting the future impact of any mitigating actions. In practice—whether monitoring the past or planning for the future—a confounding factor may arise, namely the potential for systematic growth in demand over a period of years. As this growth occurs the networks will operate in a regime closer to capacity, in which they are more sensitive to any variation in flow or capacity. Such growth will be partially an explanation for trends observed in historic data, and it will have an impact in forecasting too, where we can interpret this as implying that the networks are vulnerable to demand growth. This fact is not reflected in current vulnerability methods which focus almost exclusively on vulnerability to loss in capacity. In the paper, a simple, moment-based method is developed to separate out this effect of demand growth on the distribution of travel times on a network link, the aim being to develop a simple, tractable, analytic method for medium-term planning applications. Thus the impact of demand growth on the mean, variance and skewness in travel times may be isolated. For given critical changes in these summary measures, we are thus able to identify what (location-specific) level of demand growth would cause these critical values to be exceeded, and this level is referred to as Demand Growth Reliability Vulnerability (DGRV). Computing the DGRV index for each link of a network also allows the planner to identify the most vulnerable locations, in terms of their ability to accommodate growth in demand. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the principles and computation of the DGRV measure.     

Formulating and solving the network design problem by decomposition

The optimal transportation network design problem is formulated as a convex nonlinear programming problem and a solution method based on standard traffic assignment algorithms is presented. The technique can deal with network improvements which introduce new links, which increase the capacity of existing links, or which decrease the free-flow (uncongested) travel time on existing links (with or without simultaneously increasing link capacity). Preliminary computational experience with the method demonstrates that it is capable of solving very large problems with reasonable amounts of computer time.     

Book reviews

THE U.S. AIRFREIGHT INDUSTRY, by Nawal K. Taneja. Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass., 1979. 244 pp.

TRAFFIC, OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, FUTUROLOGY, by Arne Jensen. North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1980. 321 pp. ($39.00)

PROBLEMS OF THE CARLESS, by R. E. Paaswell and W. W. Recker. Praeger Publishers, New York, 1978. 190 pp.

TRANSPORTATION AND THE ELDERLY, by Martin Wachs. University of California Press, Berkeley, 1980.

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: PLANNING, OPERATIONS AND MANAGEMENT, edited by George E. Gray and Lester A Hoel. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1979. 749 pp.

ETHYL ALCOHOL PRODUCTION AND USE AS A MOTOR FUEL, edited by J. K. Paul. Noyes Data Corporation, New Jersy, 1979. 354 pp ($48.00).

URBAN PLANNING AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT, edited by Roy Cresswell. The Construction Press, London, 1980. 172 pp. (£15.00)     

Maritime policy and management--30 years issue for Prof. James McConville Editorial: IMO--The economics of intimidation

Organizational Effectiveness (OE) is a rather new concept in the port business literature and not widely studied before. From the systems perspective, this concept focuses on the goals of the organization, the resources needed to achieve these goals, and the relationship between the organization and its environment. The reason behind choosing a systems approach is the significant role of seaports as open systems affected by changes and developments in world trade, supply chain and logistics trends, maritime transport, and technological developments. While seaports are multi-faceted organizations that constitute different interdependent and integrated units in their structure, they can also be regarded as the subsystems of the supply chain system. As being the social and technical systems, port organizations have unique characteristics that should be examined in detail to assess their effectiveness. To assess the effectiveness of port organizations, principally a set of effectiveness measures applicable to seaports should be determined. The main aim of this study is to assess the relative importance of the main effectiveness criteria in seaports and to determine the significance of main inputs and port subsystems which can be referred as the means to achieve effectiveness. By using the systems approach, the inputs, the processes, and the outputs of the port organizations are clearly defined with a conceptual model. Thirty-three statements have been developed under the main categories in the systems model and a two-round delphi survey is conducted, and qualitative analysis of the experts’ opinions is carried out. The results of the delphi survey show that the main port inputs are port infrastructure, equipments, technology, and port labor; the major port processes are ship and cargo operations together with the logistics services, safety and security, information technologies, and marketing; and the most important effectiveness measures for the seaports are productivity, efficiency, service quality, adaptability, information and communication management, profitability, human resource quality, and customer satisfaction.     

A cluster analysis approach for differentiating transportation modes using Bluetooth sensor data

A variety of automatic data collection technologies have been used to gather road and highway system data. The majority of these automatic data collection technologies are designed to collect vehicle-based data and either do not have the capability to collect other travel mode data (e.g., bicycles and pedestrians), or may need to be deployed differently to support this capability.

One type of wireless-based data collection system that has been deployed recently is based on Bluetooth technology. A key feature of Bluetooth-based data collection systems that makes travel mode identification feasible is that the Bluetooth-enabled devices within vehicles are also present on bicyclists and pedestrians. This research explores the effectiveness of applying cluster analysis methods when processing data collected via Bluetooth technology from vehicles, bicyclists, and pedestrians to automatically identify the associated travel modes. The results of several experiments utilizing multiple Bluetooth-based data collection units arranged linearly and in relatively close proximity on a simulated intersection demonstrate the potential of cluster analysis to accurately differentiate transportation modes from the collected data.     

Dynamic response of the train–track–bridge system subjected to derailment impacts

Derailments on bridges, although not frequent, when occurs due to a complex dynamic interaction of the train–track–bridge structural system, are very severe. Furthermore, the forced vibration induced by the post-derailment impacts can toss out the derailed wagons from the bridge deck with severe consequences to the traffic underneath and the safety of the occupants of the wagons. This paper presents a study of the train–track–bridge interaction during a heavy freight train crossing a concrete box girder bridge from a normal operation to a derailed state. A numerical model that considers the bridge vibration, train–track interaction and the train post-derailment behaviour is formulated based on a coupled finite-element – multi-body dynamics (FE-MBD) theory. The model is applied to predict the post-derailment behaviour of a freight train composed of one locomotive and several wagons, as well as the dynamic response of a straight single-span simply supported bridge containing ballast track subjected to derailment impacts. For this purpose, a typical derailment scenario of a heavy freight train passing over a severe track geometry defect is introduced. The dynamic derailment behaviour of the heavy freight train and the dynamic responses of the rail bridge are illustrated through numerical examples. The results exhibit the potential for tossing out of the derailed trains from the unstable increase in the yaw angle signature and a lower rate of increase of the bridge deck bending moment compared to the increase in the static axle load of the derailed wheelset.     

穿上波希米亚的郎朗

01.Comme des Garcons波希米亚风西装套装郎朗,一个个冠名第一的衔头一直叫我们刮目相看——他是第一位协同多位指挥家在一个月内连续演奏十大不同风格协奏曲的钢琴家,也是第一位与柏林爱乐、维也纳爱乐、美国五大乐团多次合作的华人钢琴家。在很多公共场合,我们见惯了穿成一本正经高端正装的郎朗,是时候换一换较冒险的心情。