A KBS application for market research advice in transport

This paper presents some results of a knowledge based system (KBS) development applied to market research (MR) issues in transport. This application represents a rule production approach to decisions associated with the definition of appropriate survey procedures for various operation‐management problems in a transport enterprise or agency. The basic idea is to provide an aid for the user (manager, student or practitioner), who is concerned with MR, but is not very familiar with this field or has some concerns over data‐gathering and the use of that information. It focuses on specific applications in the transport environment and gives the user some support in maintaining greater consistency in his (her) decisions.

The objective of this paper is to describe the system structure, to point out some important aspects and problems arising during its development and also to make some comments with respect to the further development of this and similar systems.     

Limitations of transport policy

There is an implication in the notion of 'transport policy' that substantial improvements could be made to the transport system given sufficient ingenuity, investment and good will. This paper argues that such policy aspirations cannot cope with the desire for ever-increasing mobility, a deep and powerful force in modern society. In densely populated countries there is no possibility of meeting the demand for unconstrained movement through construction of additional transport infrastructure, since new and longer journeys would quickly fill the extra capacity until the congestion equilibrium is re-established. What limits mobility in practice is the time individuals have available for travel, time which is equitably distributed. Transport plans need to acknowledge this time constraint as fundamental, and accordingly be realistically modest about what is achievable. It is an illusion that the transport system could be substantially more efficient whilst remaining equitable.     

Book reviews of Maritime Transport. Edited by M ary R. B rooks,K enneth B utton and P eter N ijkamp (Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgar, 2002) [Pp. 553] £150.00. ISBN 1 84064 552 0

Using the extended task-technology fit (TTF) model, this paper investigates how certain factors (e.g. task characteristics, technology (i.e. intranet) characteristics, middle managers’ demographic characteristics, task-technology fit, and perceived usefulness and usage) affect the port middle managers’ job performance. Numerous organizations in the port industry constitute the population of interest. The preliminary results suggest that the majority of middle managers believe that intranet could improve their job performance. The results from the structural equation modelling (SEM) indicate that task characteristics and intranet characteristics significantly justify their variance on task-technology fit. However, demographic variables do not predict task-technology fit. Perceived usefulness is found to be a predictor of intranet usage. Task technology fit, on the other hand, significantly predicts usage and explains the variance on middle managers’ job performance. This study is the first study to investigate the effects of intranet usage and managerial performances in an integrative perspective, taking into account various user acceptance models and users’ demographic characteristics.     

Psychological items: a useful addition in modeling travel behavior on managed lanes

Transportation - Managed lanes (MLs) are a tool to more efficiently operate segments of a freeway. As ML prevalence increases in the United States of America, it is important to understand travel...     

Discrete/continuous econometric models and their application to transport analysis

A wide range of transport‐related decisions involve the linking of discrete choices (e.g. of vehicle choice) and continuous choices (e.g. of vehicle use). In recent years econometricians have developed procedures for integrating such choices into a framework that is both economically and statistically sound. The literature is however somewhat technical. The objective of this paper is to provide a general overview of the basic elements of discrete/continuous econometric modelling with an emphasis on transport applications. It is hoped that such an introduction will demonstrate that the essence of the approach for the practitioner is quite straightforward and can be implemented with widely available computer software.     

Delivering Value for Money to Government through Efficient and Effective Public Transit Service Continuity: Some Thoughts

Abstract

This paper documents some thoughts on the reform agenda in public transit that is occurring throughout the world. The specific focus is on a growing commitment to competitive regulation through competitive tendering, and the efforts by a few governments (notably in Australia) to take control of the tangible assets used by private operators as a mechanism to exercise the opportunity, if so taken, to put services out to competitive tender. The paper reviews the theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on contracting regimes and asset ownership, and the role that government and the operator might play in a setting in which building trusting and collaborative partnerships has merit in delivering services that are in the main funded from the public purse.     

Applications of transport economics and imperfect competition

The great majority of analyses made in transport economics use, explicitly or, more often, implicitly, the common assumption of perfect competition. This is the case, for instance, when infrastructure projects are evaluated using the mere sum of the surpluses of transport users and providers. Even when putting aside the question of externalities such as noise, safety or environmental quality, the real chain of economic interactions that takes place in transport provision or downstream of transport provision is not taken into account. Surely enough, describing and simulating this chain could be quite complex. Nevertheless, it is not uninteresting to try to estimate if it does make a big difference or not to make this approximation. The paper makes such an attempt for two broad kinds of applications of transport economics:     

Forecasting automobile petrol demand in Australia: An evaluation of empirical models

Transport fuel consumption and its determinants have received a great deal of attention since the early 1970s. In the literature, different types of modelling methods have been used to estimate petrol demand, each having methodological strengths and weaknesses. This paper is motivated by an ongoing need to review the effectiveness of empirical fuel demand forecasting models, with a focus on theoretical as well as practical considerations in the model-building processes of different model forms. We consider a linear trend model, a quadratic trend model, an exponential trend model, a single exponential smoothing model, Holt’s linear model, Holt–Winters’ model, a partial adjustment model (PAM), and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. More importantly, the study identifies the difference between forecasts and actual observations of petrol demand in order to identify forecasting accuracy. Given the identified best-forecasting model, Australia’s automobile petrol demand from 2007 through to 2020 is presented under the “business-as-usual” scenario.     

Underwater acoustic imaging: image due to a specular reflector in the geometrical-acoustics limit

In underwater acoustic imaging, which is used to produce high-quality images in turbid waters, a specular reflector can produce a “pseudoimage” of the receiving array at the reflecting surface. Based on the “geometrical approximation” (which is similar to geometrical acoustics), formulae are derived for the size and shape of the pseudoimage for both flat and curved reflectors. For curved reflectors, described by two principal radii of curvature, the formulae also assume the “large-range approximation.” The formulae allow radii of curvature to be determined from an image. Also discussed briefly are some possible extensions and the role of nongeometrical effects.     

“This train is without a destination”: a cost benefit analysis of the retention of railway services — the Penistone line

The paper undertakes a cost‐benefit analysis of a disinvestment using readily available data and demonstrates that a relatively straightforward yet systematic approach can provide useful input to the decision‐making process. Despite various assumptions necessitated by the analysis, it is argued that the net benefits of the railway line retention are unlikely to be significantly sensitive to their variation within feasible limits. The most significant component in the analysis is seen to be the operative costing system and it is argued that this should be revised.