Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model

This paper presents a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model combines use of conventional cost–benefit analysis to produce aggregated single point estimates, with quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to produce interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The paper investigates these two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of construction costs and the overestimation of travel time savings. The CBA-DK methodological approach has been used to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. The proposed assessment model makes use of both deterministic and stochastic based information. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. The case study has been conducted in cooperation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland.     

Toll product preferences and implications for alternative payment options and going cashless

There has been a great deal of research on deriving estimates of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) as a way of converting travel time benefits of toll roads relative to free routes into monetary units, the major user benefit in the development of forecasts of traffic and hence revenue streams. By contrast there has been almost no consideration given to identifying the role that various tollroad products play in establishing preferences for toll routes over non-tolled routes. Increasingly tollroads give users the option to pay by cash at a toll booth, by electronic tolling or by a pre- or post-paid debit and credit account system involving vehicle identification. The efficiency gained by electronic tolling for both the users and the operator have resulted in moves in many jurisdictions to eliminate cash collection entirely (or not introduce it when introducing a new tolled road facility), and to introduce a range of pre- and post-payment options. This has been accompanied by a growing move to distance-based charging in some contexts which is more cumbersome to structure with a cash option. This paper investigates current and potential travellers’ preferences for a range of toll products and how much individual’s are willing to pay for very specific toll products. Data from a stated choice experiment is used in a mixed logit model to establish the role that toll products play in the context of offered times and costs of alternative routes, in choosing between alternative ways of paying for the use of tolled routes.

Attribute‐based perceptual mapping using discriminant analysis in a public sector passenger bus transport company: A case study

This study aims at evaluating the customer expectations in a public sector passenger transport company, a crucial sector in developing countries like India. A questionnaire containing 18 quality characteristics was administered to various customers of three bus depots of one division of a state road transport undertaking in South India. Attribute‐based perceptual mapping using discriminant analysis was done to position the three depots and to identify their strengths and weaknesses. The findings would help prioritize different parameters and also provide guidelines for managers to focus on and to improve. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A KBS application for market research advice in transport

This paper presents some results of a knowledge based system (KBS) development applied to market research (MR) issues in transport. This application represents a rule production approach to decisions associated with the definition of appropriate survey procedures for various operation‐management problems in a transport enterprise or agency. The basic idea is to provide an aid for the user (manager, student or practitioner), who is concerned with MR, but is not very familiar with this field or has some concerns over data‐gathering and the use of that information. It focuses on specific applications in the transport environment and gives the user some support in maintaining greater consistency in his (her) decisions.

The objective of this paper is to describe the system structure, to point out some important aspects and problems arising during its development and also to make some comments with respect to the further development of this and similar systems.     

The MEPLAN models of Bilbao,Leeds and Dortmund

A trio of closely related land‐use/transport interaction models was developed using Marcial Echenique & Partners’ software package MEPLAN. The models were for the cities of Bilbao, (Spain), Dortmund (West Germany) and Leeds (England). All were calibrated using data drawn from earlier studies. The three models were used to predict the effects (relative to a base case) of a common programme of land‐use and transport policies or scenarios. This paper explains briefly the theoretical basis of the MEPLAN package as applied to urban models such as these three; describes the types of policies that have been assessed; and presents some of the key results.     

The challenge of railway policy in Europe

A conference organized in December 1993 by ESTI and CER discussed the major challenges facing the European railway industry. There are great opportunities in prospect for such an environmentally friendly industry, but there are many structural, financial and operational problems to overcome. The 1991 European Union Policy laid down the separation of the management of operation and infrastructure from the provision of railway transport services: measures for improving the financial structure of undertakings; and the introduction of international competition. The conference discussed the progress in restructuring, technical harmonization and interoperability and the practical issues involved in introducing competition.     

Delivering Value for Money to Government through Efficient and Effective Public Transit Service Continuity: Some Thoughts

Abstract

This paper documents some thoughts on the reform agenda in public transit that is occurring throughout the world. The specific focus is on a growing commitment to competitive regulation through competitive tendering, and the efforts by a few governments (notably in Australia) to take control of the tangible assets used by private operators as a mechanism to exercise the opportunity, if so taken, to put services out to competitive tender. The paper reviews the theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on contracting regimes and asset ownership, and the role that government and the operator might play in a setting in which building trusting and collaborative partnerships has merit in delivering services that are in the main funded from the public purse.     

Transport policy for an ageing population

Mobility declines with increasing age, reflecting the onset of physical or mental infirmity, affordability of travel for those on retirement incomes, and the mal-design of the transport infrastructure and operational arrangements. With the prospect of a rapidly ageing population, it is important to address measures to promote mobility if the quality of life of older people is to be sustained. In the UK, pensioners on low incomes, who could be hindered in their travel by the cost of fares on public transport, benefit from the general availability of half price (or better) concessionary fares for local travel. A variety of measures are in place to counter the effects of age-associated disabilities that hinder mobility, including low floor buses, subsidised taxis and community transport schemes. The Disability Discrimination Act is ensuring that public services vehicles are accessible to older people with disabilities. The motor car is of increasing importance in later life, particularly for those with disabilities, and a variety of design and technological approaches are being brought to bear to maintain the mobility of older people. These various efforts undoubtedly enhance the mobility of older people. However, beyond that broad conclusion it is hard to make evidencebased judgements. There is therefore a pressing need to develop methods to evaluate developments in policy and practice.     

Limitations of transport policy

There is an implication in the notion of 'transport policy' that substantial improvements could be made to the transport system given sufficient ingenuity, investment and good will. This paper argues that such policy aspirations cannot cope with the desire for ever-increasing mobility, a deep and powerful force in modern society. In densely populated countries there is no possibility of meeting the demand for unconstrained movement through construction of additional transport infrastructure, since new and longer journeys would quickly fill the extra capacity until the congestion equilibrium is re-established. What limits mobility in practice is the time individuals have available for travel, time which is equitably distributed. Transport plans need to acknowledge this time constraint as fundamental, and accordingly be realistically modest about what is achievable. It is an illusion that the transport system could be substantially more efficient whilst remaining equitable.