Productive efficiency and ownership of urban bus services

The established ownership mix of urban bus operations in Australia provides a unique opportunity to investigate the productivity differences between public and private bus service supply. Using duality theory in economics which links economic indices of factor productivity to the cost structure of a firm, we develop empirical measures of total and partial productivity of inputs, and adjust the differences for the effects of ownership status and operating environment. The evidence supports the notion that private supply of public passenger transport in general has performed more efficiently in the past than public supply, although the differences in productivity need not continue in the future.     

Highway impacts on regional employment

Economic development is increasingly used by state DOT's as a criterion in arriving at highway funding decisions. However, there exists little evidence in the literature justifying the use of such a criterion, especially since existing techniques only determine correlations between highways and development. In this paper a time-series methodology is developed to differentiate the effects of highways on development from the effects of development on highways. This methodology includes structural plot analysis and causality tests and is based on pooled time-series and cross-sectional data on highway construction expenditures and county employment. The results indicate that increases in highway expenditures do not, in general, lead to statewide increases in employment other than temporary increases in the year of construction. However, in counties that are economic centers of the state, highway expenditures do have a positive long-term effect, i.e. employment increases above the normal trend of the economy. Such gains are apparently counterbalanced by employment losses in counties adjacent to the economic centers.     

Changes in real incomes and the demand for taxicabs

This paper comments on the possible future of the taxicab industry within the context of a familiar economic-growth model. The future capability of the taxicab industry to check increases in real costs is shown to be an important determinant in the industry's long-term viability. More importantly, the effect of rising real incomes on the demand for taxicabs is postulated also to have a strong effect on future demand. The strength of this effect and the exact position of the taxicab in the transit tree have important implications not only for the future demand for taxis but also for the more traditional modes of public transport.     

Representing mental maps and cognitive learning in micro-simulation models of activity-travel choice dynamics

This paper develops a model, based on Bayesian beliefs networks, for representing mental maps and cognitive learning into micro-simulation models of activity-travel behavior. Mental maps can be used to address the problem that choice sets in models of travel demand are often ad hoc specified. The theory underlying the model is discussed, a specification is derived and numerical simulation is used to illustrate the properties of the model.     

Behavioural implications of preferences, risk attitudes and beliefs in modelling risky travel choice with travel time variability

The appropriate interpretation of a behavioural outcome requires allowing for risk attitude and belief of an individual, in addition to identification of preferences. This paper develops an Attribute-Specific Extended Rank-Dependent Utility Theory model to better understand choice behaviour in the presence of travel time variability, in which these three important components of choice are empirically addressed. This framework is more behaviourally appealing for travel time and travel time variability research than the traditional approach in which risk attitude and belief are overlooked. This model also reveals significant unobserved between-individual heterogeneity in preferences, risk attitudes and beliefs.     

Exploring stability and change in transport systems: combining Delphi and system dynamics approaches

Transport is a vast and complex socio-technical system, and despite a clear need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels due to undesirable environmental impacts, it is largely locked into business-as-usual. Systems approaches are a useful way to help make sense of multiple competing influences which may be simultaneously driving change and supporting the status quo. This paper applies qualitative system dynamics modelling to help interpret the results of a Delphi study into global transport transitions, involving 22 international experts in various aspects of transport. The main contribution of the paper is its exploration of the use of system dynamics (SD) modelling to interpret the Delphi findings. SD modelling was used to reveal and elucidate the causal arguments put forward by the expert panel about the factors driving business-as-usual, the factors creating barriers to more sustainable transport systems, and the drivers of change. The SD model is used to explore and expose the key causal patterns at play, and how these interact to both support and hinder change. The resulting model shows the complex, interdependent dynamics involved in supporting the status quo. Even at the relatively high level of analysis reported here, the model is useful in revealing interdependencies between parts of the system, where change in one part may well have knock-on effects elsewhere in the system. In particular the model reveals the strong reinforcing loops that act to minimise the impact of change drivers and thus retain the dominance of automobility. The result is a system that is highly dependent on the continued existence of key reinforcements such as policies that subsidise fossil fuels. From a methodological perspective, the outcomes of the Delphi study provided a rich source of qualitative material which was highly suitable for developing a system dynamics model.     

预应力CFRP板加固钢板轴心受拉行为分析

首先分析比较预应力的施加方法和锚固方式,然后基于一维线弹性理论,对预应力碳纤维增强复合材料(CFRP)板加固钢板体系的受力过程进行分阶段分析,得到在张拉预应力和受载工况下CFRP板、钢板、胶层的应力分布解析式及CFRP有效粘结长度公式、弹性压缩带来的预应力损失值;最后利用ANSYS中Solid95三维单元进行有限元模拟对比分析。结果表明:直接张拉CFRP板能有效控制预应力及其加固效果,比间接法施加预应力有更多优势;采用高强螺栓连接的平板夹具锚传递大部分荷载,改善了非预应力粘贴加固界面的薄弱特点;该理论分析及有限元模型是可靠、有效的。     

Demand for taxi services: new elasticity evidence

This paper investigates the factors that influence the choice of, and hence demand for taxis services, a relatively neglected mode in the urban travel task. Given the importance of positioning preferences for taxi services within the broader set of modal options, we develop a modal choice model for all available modes of transport for trips undertaken by individuals or groups of individuals in a number of market segments. A sample of recent trips in Melbourne in 2012 was used to develop segment-specific mode choice models to obtain direct (and cross) elasticities of interest for cost and service level attributes. Given the nonlinear functional form of the way attributes of interest are included in the modal choice models, a simple set of mean elasticity estimates are not behaviourally meaningful; hence a decision support system is developed to enable the calculation of mean elasticity estimates under specific future service and pricing levels. Some specific direct elasticity estimates are provided as the basis of illustrating the magnitudes of elasticity estimates under likely policy settings.