Modelling and simulation of transportation system effectiveness to reduce traffic congestion: a system dynamics framework

ABSTRACT

This paper is designed to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of transportation systems and reduce traffic congestion through the use of simulation models and scenario development. A system dynamics framework is used to test and evaluate the alternatives of future strategies for the city of Surabaya, Indonesia. Some factors affecting the effectiveness of transport systems include operational effectiveness and service effectiveness, as well as uncertainty. To improve the effectiveness of transportation systems, several strategies can be implemented, such as subsidizing public transportation, increasing the cost of private vehicle parking fees, raising taxes on private vehicles, and reducing delays in public transportation through scenario development. Scenario results show that, by pursuing these strategies, effectiveness could be improved by 80% as the impact of the increase in operational and service effectiveness, helping to mitigate traffic congestion. Congestion could be reduced to 70% (on average) due to the decrease in daily traffic.     

Unloading facilities at an iron-ore terminal

In this paper a project undertaken by the author is described to illustrate modifications which may be necessary to the type of analysis given in an earlier paper [1] when difficulties arise from various practical considerations. The problem examined deals with the installation of unloading facilities at a purpose-built iron ore terminal at a steelworks. However, some of the data quoted has been coded to preserve confidentiality. The project was bedevilled by an unusual number of uncertainties; to appreciate these it is necessary to view them in relation to the situation existing at that time.     

“This train is without a destination”: a cost benefit analysis of the retention of railway services — the Penistone line

The paper undertakes a cost‐benefit analysis of a disinvestment using readily available data and demonstrates that a relatively straightforward yet systematic approach can provide useful input to the decision‐making process. Despite various assumptions necessitated by the analysis, it is argued that the net benefits of the railway line retention are unlikely to be significantly sensitive to their variation within feasible limits. The most significant component in the analysis is seen to be the operative costing system and it is argued that this should be revised.     

Increase of metro line capacity by optimisation of track circuit length and location: In a distance to go system

The signalling system affects the type of service that can be provided on any particular railway line. The aims set when it comes to designing these systems to operate a railway line are: to ensure safety of operation and to ensure flexible and efficient running. When building a line capacity optimisation algorithm, it must reach a compromise solution between two parameters: minimise the interval between trains and keep journey time as low as possible. This paper aims to describe the algorithm developed between METRO DE MADRID and CITEF (Railway Technology Research Centre of the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid – UPM) that allows the capacity of an underground line equipped with ATP Distance To Go systems to be studied and optimised. This algorithm facilitates the tasks of signalling design and optimisation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social Acceptability of Aquaculture Development in Coastal Areas: The Case of Two Greek Islands

This article examines the acceptance of aquaculture development by residents and visitors of two islands, Cephallonia and Ithaki, in the Ionian Sea, in western Greece. Aquaculture farms have been established recently in both islands, and processing and packaging units in Cephallonia, generating jobs for the local communities and land rents for the villages in the coastal areas near the fish cages. However, the farms and processing and packaging units entail certain negative impacts on the environment. This study reveals that aquaculture farms have found better acceptance in Ithaki, where aqua culture is a form of development suited to this remote, small, predominantly rural island. The degree of acceptability is higher for locals than for tourists, but also for islanders who do not live in the areas where the processing units are situated. Respondents who consider the pollution of the marine environment by the farms to be high, mostly locals and residents of the villages in the vicinity of the aquaculture infrastructure or the main cities in the islands, are more likely to express a negative attitude toward aquaculture and its further development.     

Vertical evacuation in hurricanes: An urgent policy problem for coastal managers

Abstract

Evacuation inland ("horizontal evacuation") is the traditional method of saving life in areas forecast as the site of hurricane landfall. But “high confidence”; warning time is only 12 hours, while some coastal areas are now so densely populated that twice that time is required for evacuation. Coastal managers must therefore risk the ire of local citizens “unnecessarily”; evacuated early, and the associated risk that several false alarms will reduce citizen compliance, or the risk that evacuation will be too long delayed.

The alternative of vertical evacuation (going upstairs in hurricane‐proof buildings) is resisted by planners who are concerned that its risks are too high and that partial acceptance of the concept would vitiate compliance with the horizontal component. But in some areas there may no longer be a choice: prudent coastal managers must determine the potential need and capability for vertical evacuation in their areas. Effective integration of both vertical and horizontal evacuation will require development of new plans and policies.     

How Are Our MPAs Doing? Challenges in Assessing Global Patterns in Marine Protected Area Performance

Without effective management, protected areas are unlikely to achieve the high expectations the conservation and development sectors have for them: conserving biodiversity and alleviating poverty. Numerous marine protected area (MPA) assessment initiatives have been developed at various spatial and temporal scales, including the guidebook How is your MPA doing? These management assessments have been useful to sites to clarify and evaluate their objectives, yet efforts to examine broader regional or global patterns in MPA performance are only beginning. The authors conducted exploratory trend analyses on How is your MPA doing? indicator data collected by 24 MPAs worldwide to identify challenges and areas for future work. Wide variability across sites with regard to the indicators examined and the constructs used to measure them prevented a true meta-analysis. Managers assessed biophysical indicators more often than socioeconomic and governance constructs. Investment by the conservation community to support collecting and reporting high-quality data at the site level would enable a better understanding of the variation in MPA performance, clarify the contribution of MPAs to both biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation, and help drive better MPA performance. The absence of rigorous and consistent monitoring protocols and instruments and a platform to turn raw MPA monitoring data into actionable information is a critical but under-recognized obstacle to cross-project learning, comparative analyses, and adaptive resource management.     

Modelling and forecasting the demolition market in shipping

ABSTRACT

We model the demolition market, an integral part of the international shipping industry. It is shown through the implementation of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model that international steel-scrap prices contribute decisively towards price discovery in the ship-demolition industry. Our finding is explained and attributed to the fact that the growth models of Southeast Asian countries, where the ship-demolition market is primarily located, rely on scrap metal imports. These are mainly obtained from the developed economies rather than the recycling of vessels. We then proceed to test the forecasting ability of our model and use it for price prediction in the ship-demolition market. We establish that it provides the decision-makers with a useful prediction tool which enables all stakeholders involved, the ship owner, the recycler and the cash buyer alike, to gain valuable insights of the underlying trend in the sector.     

The rationality of conference pricing and output policies. Part 2

In Part 1 ^{* *}Maritime Studies and Management (1975) Vol 3, No. 2, pp. 103–111. of this article a background to the economics of conference operation was provided, and conference fleet planning and single voyage costs were discussed. This part of the paper will analyse the economic objectives of conferences and will consider the implications of ending the conference princing structure. Some recommendations are also offered.     

Updating predictive accident models of modern rural single carriageway A-roads

Abstract

Reliable predictive accident models (PAMs) are essential to design and maintain safe road networks, and yet the models most commonly used in the UK were derived using data collected 20 to 30 years ago. Given that the national personal injury accident total fell by some 30% in the last 25 years, while road traffic increased by over 60%, significant errors in scheme appraisal and evaluation based on the models currently in use seem inevitable. In this paper, the temporal transferability of PAMs for modern rural single carriageway A-roads is investigated, and their predictive performance is evaluated against a recent data set. Despite the age of these models, the PAMs for predicting the total accidents provide a remarkably good fit to recent data and these are more accurate than models where accidents are disaggregated by type. The performance of the models can be improved by calibrating them against recent data.