Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Thermidor in land use control?

Abstract

In June 1987, the U.S. Supreme Court in Nollan v. California Coastal Commission held against the California Coastal Commission. Did this legal landmark signal the rise of a new, conservative jurisprudence of takings? And if yes, did that imply the demise of what had been accomplished by the so‐called quiet revolution in land use control that swept the country in the late 1960s and early 1970s? The complexities of this case cannot be understood apart from the historical evolution of the Coastal Commission's policies through the 1970s and 1980s, particularly its coastal access policies. Because of these policies the Coastal Commission, since its inception in 1972, has been subjected to all kinds of criticism, but at the same time has been widely praised for its balanced approach. These varying assessments of the role and record of the Commission also underly the conflicting viewpoints and arguments of Justices Scalia, who wrote for the majority in Nollan, and Brennan, who filed an extremely strong dissent. The resulting legal uncertainties, added to the political setbacks suffered from a lukewarm legislature and a hostile governor, forced the Commission to temper its assertive mission of maximizing coastal access, at least for the time being.     

Cycle commuting in Belgium: Spatial determinants and ‘re-cycling’ strategies

This paper attempts to explain the spatial variation of the use of a bicycle for commuting to work at the level of the 589 municipalities in Belgium. Regression techniques were used and special attention was paid to autocorrelation, heterogeneity and multicollinearity. Spatial lag models were used to correct for the presence of spatial dependence and a disaggregated modelling strategy was adopted for the northern and southern parts of the country. The results show that much of the inter-municipality variation in bicycle use is related to environmental aspects such as the relief, traffic volumes and cycling accidents. Town size, distance travelled and demographic aspects also have some effect. In addition, there are regional differences in the effects of the structural covariates on bicycle use: the impact of variables such as traffic volume and cycling accidents differs substantially between the north and the south of the country. This paper also suggests that high rates of bicycle use in one municipality stimulate cycling in neighbouring municipalities, and hence that a mass effect can be initiated, i.e. more cycle commuting encourages even more commuters in the area to cycle. These findings provide some recommendations for decision-makers wishing to promote a shift from car to bicycle use.     

In situ colonization of marine biofilms on UNS S32760 duplex stainless steel coupons in areas with different water qualities: Implications for corrosion potential behavior

In the presence of biofilms, stainless steels （SS） exhibits an increase in corrosion potential, called ennoblement. In the present study, the corrosion potential （Eco,） behavior of the duplex SS UNS S32760 was recorded simultaneously with the in situ marine biofilm formation in two areas at Arraial do Cabo, Southeastern Brazil. The biofilm at Forno Harbor （an anthropogenically disturbed area） was characterized by higher relative abundances of Bacteria at day 2, followed by diatoms （especially Navicula sp.） on day 10 and dinoflagellates on day 18, whereas no clear trend was recorded at Cabo Frio Island （an undisturbed area）. The ennoblement of Ecor values was site-dependent. In a complementary laboratory assay, biofilms were removed and the Eco values registered in sterile conditions for the subsequent 10 days and corroborated in situ results. Understanding biofilms and SS interactions has important implications for materials science and engineering decisions as well as helping to fill in imnortant gaps in this knowledge.     

The development of safe riding guidelines for young riders – A case study of Phu Yen,Vietnam

Phu Yen is a small province located in the central part of Vietnam and is suffering from a tremendous number of traffic casualties, compared with other cities in Vietnam and developed countries. Young riders take a large proportion, accounting for 47.6% in total traffic crashes. To resolve this issue, the present study aims to (i) analyze young riders' behavior and their attitudes towards traffic safety and to (ii) propose a procedure to develop a book of safe riding guidelines to reduce their involvement in dangerous situations. A set of 73 questions in the questionnaire survey have been conducted to determine the risk-taking behavior and attitude towards traffic safety of 300 individuals, who are using bicycles, e-bikes, mopeds, scooters, and motorcycles less than 150 cc. The statistical results indicate that there are significant differences among riding behavior and attitudes of respondents towards traffic safety regarding the regional factor (rural, suburb, and urban), the demographic factor (gender and age), and the travel distance factor. The guidelines designed based on the questionnaire survey are used to alter adolescents' riding behavior and attitudes and so help them recognize, avoid, and handle risks in demanding traffic situations. An analysis of the before and after the traffic safety training workshop to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed guidelines indicated that there was a significant increment in the perceived risks of young riders after training them by using this book.     

Ballast Water Treatment systems: “Old” and “New” ones

This paper offers an overview of the currently available Ballast Water Treatment systems, their efficacy in reducing the number of organisms in relation with the IMO and other, future standards, and explores potentially new and promising technologies and current gaps.     

Can mixed logit reveal the actual data generating process? Some implications for environmental assessment

Recent advances in the specification of the utility function of mixed logit models allow the analyst, in principle, to consider a vast variety of individual heterogeneity. Nevertheless, when estimating the model it is common practice to experience severe difficulties in discriminating between different specifications to infer the “true” data generating process. We investigate possible sources for this difficulty focusing on the confounding effects inherent in two basic assumptions of discrete choice model utilities: linearity in the parameters and added error terms. We analyse the role of these assumptions in giving rise to confounding effects and why this increases the difficulty of discriminating among different structures. Finally, we investigate how these problems may affect benefit appraisal using these models. Empirical evidence is provided for two different environmental contexts and a more typical transport context using various kinds of data.     

American and European transportation responses to the 1973–74 oil embargo

A survey of U.S. and European responses to the energy crises engendered by the Arab boycott of October 1973–April 1974 is presented. U.S. Government policy actions with respect to allocation, rationing, price, and conservation measures are reviewed and contrasted with those of affected European governments. The results of those policies and their effects on transportation energy supply and demand behavior with respect to both commodity and passenger movement are described.Based on short- and long-term impact assessments of the policies considered, the authors identify significant research requirements.The authors were heavily engaged in U.S. responses to the energy emergency, and were asked to undertake study missions to those European nations significantly affected by the crisis to seek out avenues for mutual aid, and joint research, in resolving common energy problems. This paper is one product of those study missions.