Using BDI agents to improve driver modelling in a commuter scenario

The use of multi-agent systems to model and to simulate real systems consisting of intelligent entities capable of autonomously co-operating with each other has emerged as an important field of research. This has been applied to a variety of areas, such as social sciences, engineering, and mathematical and physical theories. In this work, we address the complex task of modelling drivers’ behaviour through the use of agent-based techniques. Contemporary traffic systems have experienced considerable changes in the last few years, and the rapid growth of urban areas has challenged scientific and technical communities. Influencing drivers’ behaviour appears as an alternative to traditional approaches to cope with the potential problem of traffic congestion, such as the physical modification of road infrastructures and the improvement of control systems. It arises as one of the underlying ideas of intelligent transportation systems. In order to offer a good means to evaluate the impact that exogenous information may exert on drivers’ decision making, we propose an extension to an existing microscopic simulation model called Dynamic Route Assignment Combining User Learning and microsimulAtion (DRACULA). In this extension, the traffic domain is viewed as a multi-agent world and drivers are endowed with mental attitudes, which allow rational decisions about route choice and departure time. This work is divided into two main parts. The first part describes the original DRACULA framework and the extension proposed to support our agent-based traffic model. The second part is concerned with the reasoning mechanism of drivers modelled by means of a Beliefs, Desires, and Intentions (BDI) architecture. In this part, we use AgentSpeak(L) to specify commuter scenarios and special emphasis is given to departure time and route choices. This paper contributes in that respect by showing a practical way of representing and assessing drivers’ behaviour and the adequacy of using AgentSpeak(L) as a modelling language, as it provides clear and elegant specifications of BDI agents.     

The economic impact study of maritime policy issues: application to the German case

Input-output analysis basically provides an estimation of a sector's economic impact by taking into account the indirect effects on all other sectors. For purposes of policy making, however, this may produce rather rigid and inaccurate results. This paper, therefore, introduces some extensions to the basic impact analysis. These extensions secure flexibility, completeness and accurateness of the outcomes. First, an accurate cost structure is determined in a bottom-up approach, i.e. by using data from a sample of representative companies. This allows for reliable outcomes and a flexible definition of sub-sectors. Secondly, the analysis is made in an intercountry context. Thirdly, the expenditure effects of generated income are determined by a macroeconomic module. Fourthly, company-level responses to alternative policy scenarios are investigated and translated into changing model parameters. These four basic elements are applied in a case study concerning the shipping sector of Germany. The scenarios are a continuation of the present policy, a laissez-faire policy, and two framework policies in which the government creates a favourable environment for shipping companies. For each scenario, the effects on value added, employment, tax revenues and expenditures are analysed and evaluated. This paper, thus, shows the relevance of accordingly amplified input-output analysis for policy purposes.     

High-speed trains subject to abrupt braking

The dynamic response of high-speed train subject to braking is investigated using the moving element method. Possible sliding of wheels over the rails is accounted for. The train is modelled as a 15-DOF system comprising of a car body, two bogies and four wheels interconnected by spring-damping units. The rail is modelled as a Euler–Bernoulli beam resting on a two-parameter elastic damped foundation. The interaction between the moving train and track-foundation is accounted for through the normal and tangential wheel–rail contact forces. The effects of braking torque, wheel–rail contact condition, initial train speed and severity of railhead roughness on the dynamic response of the high-speed train are investigated. For a given initial train speed and track irregularity, the study revealed that there is an optimal braking torque that would result in the smallest braking distance with no occurrence of wheel sliding, representing a good compromise between train instability and safety.     

Accessibility appraisal of land-use/transport policy strategies: More than just adding up travel-time savings

We examine the accessibility benefits associated with some land-use policy strategies for the Netherlands that anticipate on expected climate change. A disaggregate logsum accessibility measure using the Dutch national land-use/transport interaction model TIGRIS XL is used to compute changes in consumer surplus. The measure provides an elegant and convenient solution to measure the full accessibility benefits from land-use and/or transport policies, when discrete choice travel-demand models are available that already produce logsums. It accounts for both changes in generalised transport costs and changes in destination utility, and is thus capable of providing the accessibility benefits from changes in the distribution of activities, due to transport or land-use policies. The case study shows that logsum accessibility benefits from land-use policy strategies can be quite large compared to investment programmes for road and public transport infrastructure, largely due to changes in trip production and destination utility, which are not measured in the standard rule-of-half benefit measure.     

Transportation Risk ANalysis tool for hazardous Substances (TRANS) – A user-friendly,semi-quantitative multi-mode hazmat transport route safety risk estimation methodology for Flanders

The paper develops a methodology for assessing the relative risk levels in moving hazardous materials by various transport modes. Transportation Risk ANalysis tool for hazardous Substances (TRANS) divides routes into smaller segments using multi-criteria analysis and likelihood scores of accidents in which dangerous cargoes are involved possibly causing fatalities. The consequences of accident scenarios are calculated in terms of the number of people within 1% of the lethal distance from the accident centre. This provides a user-friendly, semi-quantitative risk analysis tool. The generic method allows for comparing the risk levels of the segments of routes used in the transportation of hazardous goods.     

Rural school transportation in emerging countries: The Brazilian case

The lack of proper policies for the rural environment, in contrast to the situation in the urban environment in Brazil, has prevented the rural population from benefiting from basic infrastructure and access to their rights as citizens. The poor school transportation conditions are large barriers to access and retention of pupils in schools. These poor conditions, with lack of comfort and high accident risks, result in long travelling hours to reach the school and lessen learning performance because the children arrive in the school tired and sleepy. The Brazilian Federal Government has adopted different programs and actions in order to overcome these difficulties and to improve school conditions in general. A new standard vehicle has been adopted, which will be fit for the harsh road conditions in the rural areas, and handbooks have been introduced to help the municipalities and their officials to plan and to contract school transport services. This paper provides an overview of the outlook for rural school transportation in Brazil, describing the operational conditions (including trip and vehicle conditions) and their users, as well as analysis on the effects on school performance, and also the role of the local and Federal governments.     

Using the Ecopath with Ecosim Modeling Approach to Understand the Effects of Watershed-based Management Actions in Coastal Ecosystems

Resource managers are often tasked with identifying and assessing the potential impacts of management actions on the biotic communities under their care. When the management activities directly influence a single species of interest, managers can turn to a variety of models to aid in their understanding of potential changes to that population. However, as ecosystem-based management becomes more widely accepted, managers will have to understand how proposed actions will impact entire biotic communities, through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Thus, there is a need for ecosystem models that account for both trophic and non-trophic interactions, and that can be relatively easily used to assess a variety of management scenarios. We reviewed the available literature regarding incorporation of eutrophication and other anthropogenic impacts into Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), one of the more widely used trophic ecosystem modeling frameworks. We found that a number of mechanisms of varying complexity have been used to include these stressors in models, providing managers with a suite of options that can be used to complement their existing management options as they seek to understand the impacts of human interactions on the natural environment.     

Determinants of Indian sub-continent officer–seafarer retention in the shipping industry

The retention of officer–seafarers within the international shipping industry is a difficult problem facing shipping and ship management companies. One strategic option open to all companies that should improve overall retention is to seek to become an employer of choice by providing an intellectual capital environment attractive to officer–seafarers. This is investigated through a survey of officer–seafarers covering areas where ship management can exercise some control over their working conditions. These cover recognition by their employer and commensurate rewards, organizational culture and structure and building relationships with external parties. Experienced Indian sub-continent officer–seafarers were the sample population resulting in more than 200 valid completions. These were analysed using correlation and regression. Although all hypotheses were in the predicted direction, only four passed the significance test: long-term career prospects, a smooth and fair recruitment process, a better relationship with maritime authorities and an employee-friendly organizational culture. Stepwise regression indicated that only organizational culture had a significant positive effect on intention to remain a seafarer. The items in the organizational culture construct accord with recommendations from the literature on becoming an employer of choice and improving employee retention, providing guidance for attracting and retaining officers.     

Impact of scale increase of container ships on the generalised chain cost

In recent years, an increase in the size of the container ships could be observed. The question is how these larger ships will influence the total generalised costs from a port of loading to a destination in the European hinterland. The second question is whether a scale increase of the container ships on other loops, such as a loop from the United States to Europe, has the same impact on the generalised chain costs as on the loop from Asia to Europe. A derived question is which element of the total chain has the highest importance, and whether this balance varies as the ship size changes. In this article, a model is developed that allows answering the above research questions. The model is designed to simulate the cost of a complete loop of a container ship and of a chain that uses that same loop. For the chain cost simulation, the maritime part is determined by the loop. From the ports of loading and unloading, the port container handling and the hinterland transportation costs are also integrated. The model also allows calculating the total chain cost from a point of origin (either a hinterland region or a port) to a destination point (also a port or a hinterland region). An actual container loop of a container shipping company can be introduced in the model. An application is made to two existing container loops, namely from Asia respectively the United States to Europe. It turns out that changing ship does indeed lead to economies of scale, but also that the impact is larger on the Asia–Europe connection than on the US–Europe connection. Furthermore, the maritime component has the biggest share in the total chain cost, but as ship size increases, the shares start getting closer to each other. This research contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First of all, it quantifies the impact of the scale increase of container ships throughout the total chain. Second, this is done from a bottom-up engineering modelling approach.