Resolving the impact of short-term variations in physical processes impacting on the spawning environment of eastern Baltic cod: application of a 3-D hydrodynamic model

Variations in oxygen conditions below the permanent halocline influence the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea through a number of mechanisms. In this study, we examine the effects of physical forcing on variations in the volume of deep oxygenated water suitable for reproductive success of central Baltic cod. Recent research has identified the importance of inflows of saline and oxygenated North Sea water into the Baltic Sea for the recruitment of Baltic cod. However, other processes have been suggested to modify this reproduction volume including variations in timing and volume of terrestrial runoff, variability of the solubility of oxygen due to variations in sea surface temperature as well as the influence of variations in wind stress. In order to examine the latter three mechanisms, we have performed simulations utilizing the Kiel Baltic Sea model for a period of a weak to moderate inflow of North Sea water into the Baltic, modifying wind stress, freshwater runoff and thermal inputs. The model is started from three-dimensional fields of temperature, salinity and oxygen obtained from a previous model run and forced by realistic atmospheric conditions. Results of this realistic reference run were compared to runs with modified meteorological forcing conditions and river runoff.From these simulations, it is apparent that processes other than major Baltic inflows have the potential to alter the reproduction volume of Baltic cod. Low near-surface air temperatures in the North Sea, the Skagerrak/Kattegat area and in the western Baltic influence the water mass properties (high oxygen solubility). Eastward oriented transports of these well-oxygenated highly saline water masses may have a significant positive impact on the Baltic cod reproduction volume in the Bornholm Basin.Finally, we analysed how large scale and local atmospheric forcing conditions are related to the identified major processes affecting the reproduction volume.     

History of Stability of Railway and Road Vehicles

Stability of running of vehicles is one of the important design criteria of railway and road vehicles. Railway vehicle stability is based on kinematics as well as contact mechanics. It reaches back to the 19th century and had its first hey-day with the work of Carter and Rocard on stability of locomotives. A rediscovery of their knowledge, which seemed to have been forgotten, was inevitable due to increased vehicle speeds since the early Fifties. — Though investigations on road vehicle stability only began approximately in 1930 with the treatment of the shimmy phenomenon, realistic solutions were available at the same time as for railway vehicles. Besides considering historical aspects we discuss in the paper links which exist between both approaches; open questions are described.     

Maglev Vehicle/Guideway Vertical Random Response and Ride Quality

Summary The research and development (R & D) of maglev technology had made a great progress in China since the early 1980s. Especially, a 35 km-long Shanghai high-speed maglev railway employing the German Transrapid system began to be constructed on March 1, 2001. Based on the Transrapid system, the paper develops a 10-degree-of-freedom model of maglev vehicle running over three types of guideways with constant speed. Random guideway irregularities are discussed and taken into account for simulation of the vehicle response and for evaluation of the ride comfort. Using the direct time integration method and the discrete fast Fourier transform (DFFT), random responses of the maglev vehicle-guideway systems are obtained and analyzed. Numerical results show that the resonant frequency of car body acceleration response is 0.5-1 Hz, and there is a 2.2 Hz periodic vibration due to the periodic configuration of rigid piers when the maglev vehicle travels over the elevated-beam guideway. The car body acceleration power spectral density (PSD) curves meet well the ride quality criterion of the urban tracked aircushion vehicle (UTACV) and the maximum acceleration of car body is less than 0.05 g. Moreover, the Sperling ride index values are less than 2.5 as long as the operational speed is less than 450 km/h. It is concluded that the maglev vehicle ride quality is quite well.     

Aggregation with multinomial probit and estimation of disaggregate models with aggregate data: A new methodological approach

This paper describes an analytic aggregation procedure for disaggregate demand models similar to the one proposed in earlier publications by Westin (1974) and McFadden and Reid (1975). The technique, which uses a multivariate normal approximation for the distribution of the vector of attributes, is based on the multinomial profit algorithm proposed by Daganzo, Bouthelier and Sheffi (1977) and can be applied to an arbitrary number of alternatives. The procedure is computationally so efficient that it enables us to calibrate disaggregate models with aggregate data by maximum likelihood using the same or slightly modified codes developed for disaggregated data. The paper also contains a small scale numerical example intended to illustrate the important highlights of the aggregation-estimation problem.     

Road characteristics and environment factors associated with motorcycle fatal crashes in Malaysia

This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00 am to 6 am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70 km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7 pm to 12 pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70 km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.     

Phytoplanktonic nutrient utilisation and nutrient signature in the Southern Ocean

The separation in Southern Ocean provinces of silicate excess at nitrate exhaustion and of nitrate excess at silicate exhaustion was already introduced by Kamykowski and Zentara (Kamykowski, D., Zentara, S.J., 1985. Nitrate and silicic acid in the world ocean: patterns and processes. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 26, 47–59; and Kamykowski, D., Zentara, S.J., 1989. Circumpolar plant nutrient covariation in the Southern Ocean: patterns and processes. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 58, 101–111) and our investigations of the silicate to nitrate uptake ratios confirm the earlier distinction. Oligotrophic antarctic waters mainly exhibit proportionally higher silicate removal what induces a potential for nitrate excess. The nitrogen uptake regime of such areas is characterised by low absolute as well as specific nitrate uptake rates throughout. Maximal values did not exceed 0.15 μM d⁻¹ and 0.005 h⁻¹, respectively. Corresponding f-ratios ranged from 0.39 to 0.86. This scenario contrasts strikingly to the more fertile ice edge areas. They showed a drastic but short vernal increase in nitrate uptake. Absolute uptake rates reached a maximum value of 2.18 μM d⁻¹ whereas the maximal specific uptake rate was 0.063 h⁻¹. In addition to an optimal physical environment for bloom development, accumulation of ammonium stimulated nitrate uptake in a direct or indirect way. Since ammonium build-up in surface waters traces enhanced remineralisation, release of other essential compounds during degradation of organic matter might have been the main trigger. This peak nitrate utilisation during early spring led to the observed potential for silicate excess. With increasing seasonal maturity the nitrate uptake became inhibited by the presence of enhanced ammonium availability (up to 8% of the inorganic nitrogen pool), however, and after a short period of intensive nitrate consumption the uptake rates drop to very low levels, which are comparable to the ones observed in the area of nitrate excess at silicate exhaustion.     

PACDIN statement of methods

PAntograph–Catenary Dynamic Interaction (PACDIN) is a code developed by the vehicle technology research centre (CITV) of the Universitat Politècnica de València in collaboration with the railway company Talgo S.L. The model of the catenary is a finite element model using absolute nodal coordinates. It is based on a general formulation that can be applied for analysing a wide range of catenary configurations, including stitch wire, transitions or non-straight path tracks. The formulation is fully non-linear and includes large deformations, dropper slackening and contact interaction. The model is linearised when deformations are small, as in the case of the benchmark dynamic analysis. The results of the PACDIN code show a good agreement with the average results of other benchmark codes.     

pH variability and CO2 induced acidification in the North Sea

A coupled carbonate system–marine ecosystem–hydrodynamic model is used to simulate the temporal and spatial variability in pH across the southern North Sea as it relates to the environmental and biological processes affecting CO₂, namely, photosynthesis and respiration, riverine boundary conditions and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Annual pH ranges are found to vary from < 0.2 in areas of low biological activity to > 1.0 in areas influenced by riverine signals, consistent with observations and previous studies. It is shown that benthic, as well as pelagic, activity is an important factor in this variability. The acidification of the region due to increased fluxes of atmospheric CO₂ into the marine system is calculated and shown to exceed, on average, 0.1 pH units over the next 50 years and result in a total acidification of 0.5 pH units below pre-industrial levels at atmospheric CO₂ concentrations of 1000 ppm. The potential for measurable changes in biogeochemistry are demonstrated by simulating the observed inhibition of pelagic nitrification with decreasing pH. However, we conclude that there is a lack of knowledge of how acidification might affect the complex interaction of processes that govern marine biogeochemical cycles and a consequent need for further research and observations.     

Data-driven State-of-Charge estimator for electric vehicles battery using robust extended Kalman filter

An accurate battery State-of-Charge (SoC) estimation method is one of the most significant and difficult techniques to promote the commercialization of electric vehicles. This paper tries to make two contributions to the existing literatures through a robust extended Kalman filter (REKF) algorithm. (1) An improved lumped parameter battery model has been proposed based on the Thevenin battery model and the global optimization-oriented genetic algorithm is used to get the optimal polarization time constant of the battery model. (2) A REKF algorithm is employed to build an accurate data-driven based robust SoC estimator for a LiFePO4 lithium-ion battery. The result with the Federal Urban Driving Schedules (FUDS) test shows that the improved lumped parameter battery model can simulate the dynamic performance of the battery accurately. More importantly, the REKF based SoC estimation approach makes the SoC estimation with high accuracy and reliability, it can efficiently eliminate the problem of accumulated calculation error and erroneous initial estimator state of the SoC.     

La logistique urbaine à l’épreuve du facteur 4

In this paper, we are putting forward a methodology and results from a simulation of different town development scenarios, aimed at reducing the impact of greenhouse gas production from the exchange of goods by 75%. The state-of-the-art scenarios are designed based on combining elements relating to recent planning work on town transport systems in France, and empirical results based on surveys and urban logistics modelling work. It shows a set of relevant determinants of potential changes in the formation of goods flows within the town. Based on the fact that, in France, more than half of the car-equivalent vehicle-km produced by the transportation of goods are as a result of households using their cars to go shopping, the scenarios are designed according to a systematic approach to urban mobility of goods and people. They bring together organisational aspects (changes to the urban goods movement system) and aspects of planning and land use, especially with regard to flow generators such as factories, warehouses, shops and households. The calculations, allowing the measurement of the impact of these scenarios on the production of greenhouse gases, are carried out using a model that combines the changes between economic production activities on the one hand, and the changes to household purchases on the other. As a result, organisational changes are proving to be an essential addition to a policy for increasing the density of the urban fabric.