硬仗——Fight for Championship

今年一半的赛车升级到了更大马力更大排量：法拉利从360变成了430,新增了560马力的兰博基尼F1GT3和雪佛兰Corvette,而我依然是3.9升排量的保时捷GT3 CUP赛车。强手如林,强车如林,我打了一场硬仗,拿到了今年的第一个冠军。     

Travel plans for new developments: a global review

A travel plan is a mechanism for delivering a package of transport measures at a site to manage car use and encourage the use of more sustainable forms of transport. In recent years, travel plans have been required for new infill and greenfield developments through the land-use planning and approvals process, predominantly in the United Kingdom, the United States, continental Europe and Australia. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a global review of travel plans for new developments. The results show that while travel plans for new developments share a common set of elements with those for pre-existing sites, differences within each element are notable, particularly in the types of travel plan measures adopted, processes for managing the travel plan, and approaches to monitoring and review. Results of previous evaluations have varied considerably, although most have reported a reduction in car driver trips of 10–20 percentage points. Despite this, most evaluations lack rigour, with a paucity of robust evidence. Key success factors identified by the literature, such as the provision of an explicit policy supporting the role of travel plans, should be embedded within the travel planning process where possible to ensure best outcomes for new developments.     

经济危机——Economic Crisis

全球经济危机成为2008和2009年的热门话题。波及到赛车界的最大新闻就是本田退出F1,SUBARU和铃木退出WRC。而国内也传说几支车队烧完了钱支撑不住已经决定退出2009年的比赛。     

Toll product preferences and implications for alternative payment options and going cashless

There has been a great deal of research on deriving estimates of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) as a way of converting travel time benefits of toll roads relative to free routes into monetary units, the major user benefit in the development of forecasts of traffic and hence revenue streams. By contrast there has been almost no consideration given to identifying the role that various tollroad products play in establishing preferences for toll routes over non-tolled routes. Increasingly tollroads give users the option to pay by cash at a toll booth, by electronic tolling or by a pre- or post-paid debit and credit account system involving vehicle identification. The efficiency gained by electronic tolling for both the users and the operator have resulted in moves in many jurisdictions to eliminate cash collection entirely (or not introduce it when introducing a new tolled road facility), and to introduce a range of pre- and post-payment options. This has been accompanied by a growing move to distance-based charging in some contexts which is more cumbersome to structure with a cash option. This paper investigates current and potential travellers’ preferences for a range of toll products and how much individual’s are willing to pay for very specific toll products. Data from a stated choice experiment is used in a mixed logit model to establish the role that toll products play in the context of offered times and costs of alternative routes, in choosing between alternative ways of paying for the use of tolled routes.

Stated preference modelling of intra-household decisions: Can you more easily approximate the preference space?

While the study of choices focuses primarily on the individual decision maker, there is growing interest in the examination of the choices made by groups. Much of the research into the choices of multiple decision makers has revealed that they differ significantly to those of individuals. In this study of household vehicle choice we similarly compare individual choices to group choices and support this finding. Consequently any research into choices that involve groups should acquire data from those groups. In this paper we show how this may be done via an interactive agency choice experiment which makes the individual preferences endogenous to the choice of the group. This method and many like it, however, involve significant time, incentive and administrative costs that often make such studies prohibitive. In this paper we also compare another class of model, minimum information group inference, which is designed to provide an overview of the likely group choice and while not having the specificity of detail as other methods, has the advantage of being much easier and cheaper to implement and is perhaps the only methodology that can be employed when it is not feasible for respondents to interact. We find that this method is a good approximation of group choice, mapping the preference space over which group choice is likely to be located.

     

A Review of Pseudo Panel Data Approach in Estimating Short-run and Long-run Public Transport Demand Elasticities

Abstract

The distinctions between short-run and long-run public transport demand elasticities have been highlighted in the literature, but the identification of long-run travel demand has been constrained by existing research methodology and the unavailability of longitudinal travel survey data. The pseudo panel data approach using repeated cross-sectional data has been suggested as an alternative to conducting a longitudinal travel demand analysis when genuine panel data are not available. This paper comprehensively reviews the background and the current practices of pseudo panel data research, and introduces the challenges in applied research that need further investigation, particularly for public transport. A case study using the Sydney Household Travel Survey data is presented to demonstrate pseudo panel data construction and to identify the short-run and long-run public transport demand elasticities using a pseudo panel data approach. The research findings suggest that the public transport demand elasticity of price in Sydney is ?0.22 in the short run and ?0.29 in the long run.     

Demand for taxi services: new elasticity evidence

This paper investigates the factors that influence the choice of, and hence demand for taxis services, a relatively neglected mode in the urban travel task. Given the importance of positioning preferences for taxi services within the broader set of modal options, we develop a modal choice model for all available modes of transport for trips undertaken by individuals or groups of individuals in a number of market segments. A sample of recent trips in Melbourne in 2012 was used to develop segment-specific mode choice models to obtain direct (and cross) elasticities of interest for cost and service level attributes. Given the nonlinear functional form of the way attributes of interest are included in the modal choice models, a simple set of mean elasticity estimates are not behaviourally meaningful; hence a decision support system is developed to enable the calculation of mean elasticity estimates under specific future service and pricing levels. Some specific direct elasticity estimates are provided as the basis of illustrating the magnitudes of elasticity estimates under likely policy settings.     

Behavioural responses to vehicle emissions charging

Road pricing as an economic construct is not a new phenomenon in transportation research. Whilst fuel taxation and tolling of roads are common ways of raising revenue in many countries, these initiatives are primarily aimed at road infrastructure financing. Worldwide there has been growing interest in pricing structures designed to also manage the growing levels of traffic congestion and, in recent times, an increasing focus on generating reductions in carbon emissions from vehicle ownership and use. This paper presents a stated choice experiment undertaken in response to the increasing interest in the environmental externalities of travel behaviour. The aim of this choice experiment is to identify the potential to switch to more fuel efficient cars that emit lower emissions, under differing pricing and technology scenarios. Results indicate that annual and variable emissions surcharges targeted very specifically to vehicle emission rates have a noticeable role in modifying vehicle purchasing decisions.     

Incorporating uncertainty into short-term travel time predictions

To improve the quality of travel time information provided to motorists, there is a need to move away from point forecasts of travel time. Specifically, techniques are needed which predict the range of travel times which motorists may experience. This paper focuses on travel time prediction on motorways and evaluates three models for predicting the travel time range in real time as well as up to 1 h ahead. The first model, termed lane by lane tracing, relies on speed data from each lane to replicate the trajectories of relatively slow and relatively fast vehicles on the basis of speed differences across the lanes. The second model is based on the relationship between mean travel time (estimated using a neural network model) and driver-to-driver travel time variability. The results provide insight into the relative merits of the proposed techniques and confirm that they provide a basis for reliable travel time range prediction in the short-term prediction context (up to 1 h ahead).     

Economic resilience to transportation failure: a computable general equilibrium analysis

This study develops and applies a multimodal computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the role of resilience in the economic consequences of transportation system failures. Vulnerability and economic resilience of different modes of transportation infrastructure, including air, road, rail, water and local transit, are assessed using a CGE model that incorporates various resilience tactics including modal substitution, trip conservation, excess capacity, relocation/rerouting, and service recapture. The linkages between accessibility, vulnerability, and resilience are analyzed. The model is applied to the transportation system failures in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina to illustrate its capabilities. The analytical framework, however, has broader applications and can provide insights for resource allocations to enhance emergent responses to unexpected events and to improve resilient design of transportation infrastructure systems.